On February 24, Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine. After a few days, Russian soldiers stood only a few kilometers from the capital, Kyiv. A few weeks later, the Russians were forced out of the capital and the fighting moved eastward into Ukraine. Although many are dying every day, the front lines have hardly moved in the last seven weeks. – Russia has not really taken any territory since Lysytjansk at the beginning of July. Simply because the forces are too exhausted. That’s what chief researcher Tor Bukkvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute says. Ukrainian soldiers on their way to the front in Donetsk last Thursday. Photo: ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP Three scenarios Bukkvoll expects that the Ukrainian army will attack the Russian forces. It may happen soon, or the counter-offensive may not come until the new year. How the Ukrainian counter-offensive goes will, in Bukkvoll’s opinion, be decisive for how the entire war develops. He describes three different scenarios: Ukraine succeeds – I think the Ukrainian actions in Crimea in recent weeks primarily have a moral significance, says chief researcher Tor Bukkvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute Photo: FFI Ukrainian success in an offensive can happen in three ways: They force the Russians back to the borders that existed before the attack on 24 February. They throw the Russians out of the entire Donbas area in the east of the country. They also manage to regain control of the Crimean peninsula. Bukkvoll says that the latter will be more of a victory than a peace solution, but that there will probably be peace talks afterwards. – It is doubtful whether the Putin regime will survive such a scenario, he says. Despite the fact that the front line is tens of kilometers away, young people played in the river in Mykolajiv on Monday. Photo: BULENT KILIC / AFP Offensive stops A Ukrainian offensive can stall, without the Russians being able to counterattack. It will be a situation similar to what is now. – In that case, the Russians will probably propose peace talks. Both to secure what has been taken and to be able to get time to build up new forces, says Bukkvoll. However, he does not believe that the Ukrainians will participate in peace talks. They will neither give away parts of their country nor give the Russians to strengthen themselves. Bukkvoll says that under this scenario it is likely that the war will continue, even if it will be less intensive. – It can last for several years, he says. In connection with Independence Day on Wednesday, the Ukrainian authorities have exhibited captured Russian tanks on Kiev’s main street Kreshchatyk. Photo: DIMITAR DILKOFF / AFP Ukraine fails According to Bukkvoll, the least likely scenario is that the Ukrainian counter-offensive will fail completely. – But in war you have to take account of the improbable. But as exhausted as the Russian defense is now, it is difficult to imagine, he says. For Ukraine, the upcoming offensive is very important. – They cannot afford to fail. That will lead to severely weakened morale, says Bukkvoll. INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news (UPDATED 23.08.2022)INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news (UPDATED 23.08.2022) Could be a Russian collapse Bukkvoll does not ignore the fact that the Russian the army may collapse under the pressure of a Ukrainian counter-offensive. The Russians have started to use older and inferior tanks as the war has gone badly. He still believes that it is a lack of fighting morale that is the Russians’ biggest threat. – There weren’t that many people who wanted to fight the Ukrainians in the first place. It is mostly the older generation who have bought it that the Ukrainians are Nazis, he says. – The younger ones, who did fight in the war, were skeptical about Nazism in the first place. When they get there and don’t meet a single Nazi, they wonder what they’re doing. It is not good for morale, Bukkvoll continues. Mobilization can be foolhardy Peaceful in the amusement park Izmailovsky Kremlin in Moscow last Sunday. In the event of a mobilization, it could become far more chaotic in Russia. Photo: AP The scariest scenario is if you get a Ukrainian counter-offensive that begins to succeed and there is desperation in the Kremlin. – What do they do then? asks Bukkvoll and highlights two options: They can use tactical nuclear weapons. They can go to mobilization – I think both options are now considered extreme in the Kremlin. But if you get desperate, you don’t know what people can come up with, says Bukkvoll. Until now, the Russian soldiers have been volunteers, either because they were under contract in the military before the war began or because they have been paid large sums of money to participate. – By mobilizing, the Russians will get many more soldiers. Then they force people into the military, says Bukkvoll. He believes that coercion also carries with it a significant political risk for Putin. – Based on what the Russians have shown so far in the war, there will be a significant risk of a fluke. If you want to mobilize a million people, you have to be in order, otherwise there will be chaos, says Bukkvoll. When we get the answer to whether the Ukrainians succeed is difficult to say. But an attack and a clarification may come already during the autumn.
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