– Many here in New York are switching to the Republicans now. It seems that they are the ones who actually want to change things. I consider it myself, says Darlington Canmu when news meets him on the ferry over to Staten Island in New York. He adds: “Even if my family would kill me.” More voters are doing like Canmu in New York. A few days before the US midterm elections, the Republicans have a tailwind in the normally strong Democratic state. CHANGING PARTIES: Darlington Canmu is considering voting Republican for the first time in this year’s election. Photo: Tove Bjørgaas / news One of the reasons is the increasing violence in New York City. And especially on the subway. A man is pushed in front of a train in Brooklyn without warning. A 23-year-old man is stabbed at the subway station in Time Square. An elderly man is beaten up by a couple on the subway in northern Manhattan. All during the last week. There have been many cases of violence recently. Now the fear has subsided. And it affects the election campaign in Republican favor. – It’s completely wild. It seems like it gets wilder and wilder every day, says Tasha Castro (24) about the violence on the subway to the New York Post. MORE POLICE: A policeman looks after a subway stop in Manhattan in New York. Photo: JEENAH MOON / Reuters Turning the election campaign Offenses on public transportation have increased by 41 percent since last year, according to the New York Police Department. Over 3 million people take the subway every day in New York City. It is not only on the subway that violence has increased. After New York reopened after the pandemic, there have been more murders and more episodes of violence in the city Mayor Michael Bloomberg called “America’s safest big city” in 2010. SHOOTING: There have been several incidents of violence with firearms in New York. Here from the East New York crime scene in Brooklyn in July. Photo: SHANNON STAPLETON / Reuters In the big picture, New York is still relatively safe compared to the 1980s and 1990s. But the increase in violent episodes has received a lot of attention. Republican Lee Zeldin, who will become governor of the state, has made this his most important issue in the election campaign. – We wake up and read headlines about a subway employee who is threatened with a weapon. About a young girl who is robbed in Queens. This is not something that happens once a month, but that happens every day, says Zeldin about the cases of violence. HIGH FIVE: The Republicans’ Lee Zeldin (th) has entered the election campaign to become New York’s governor. Here he meets the governor of Virginia, Glenn Youngkin, on the campaign trail on October 31. Photo: Eduardo Munoz Alvarez / AP Fear of violence and a threatened democracy The fear of violence is what worries New Yorkers the most when they elect a governor and congressman next week, according to a Quinnipiac poll. In second place is inflation, while the third most important is protecting democracy, according to the survey. The United States holds mid-term elections next Tuesday, and in New York advance voting is already underway. Today, the Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives, but that may change after the election on 8 November. Large parts of Congress and a number of important positions at state level are to be elected. New York has long been one of the Democrats’ safest cards. The Democrats’ presidential candidate Joe Biden won New York by a whopping 23 percentage points in 2020. But now the future of the state’s first female governor, Democrat Kathy Hochul, is at stake. EXCITED: Gov. Kathy Hochul should have been confident of victory. But the lead is narrow before the election on November 8. Photo: Mark Lennihan / AP Gaining support from Trump In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Republican Lee Zeldin is only four percentage points behind Hochul in the latest poll. Other measurements give Hochul a somewhat larger lead. Back on the ferry over to Staten Island, Darlington tells Canmu why he is considering voting for Republican Lee Zeldin. – I have always voted democratically. But everything remains the same, says Canmu, who is disappointed with President Joe Biden. LEADER: Incumbent New York Governor Kathy Hochul still leads in the polls. Photo: EVELYN HOCKSTEIN / Reuters The Republican progress is sensational in the Democratic bastion of New York. For Lee Zeldin, no one is a moderate Republican. The 42-year-old gives his full support to former president Donald Trump. As a member of Congress, he voted not to recognize the election results in 2020. ON THE BACK: Former President Donald Trump lends his support to Lee Zeldin. Photo: ED JONES / AFP From abortion to violence Kathy Hochul and the Democrats were sure of victory for a long time. It also looked like the Democrats would do better than expected in the midterm elections. After the US Supreme Court removed the right to self-determined abortion in June, abortion dominated the election campaign. A clear majority of Americans want to retain the right to self-determined abortion. The vast majority of Republican politicians want to remove it in whole or in part. So will Lee Zeldin. But he has vowed not to touch New York’s liberal abortion laws, if he wins. EXCITED: Gov. Kathy Hochul should have been confident of victory. But the lead is narrow before the election on November 8. Photo: Mark Lennihan / AP Hochul still talks about abortion, warning New Yorkers against believing Zeldin. But now she also talks about crime and the fear many people feel. – I understand the fear. I walk the streets of New York City every day, I’ve taken the subway. The fear is real, said Kathy Hochul at a recent election campaign debate. That the Democrats are struggling in New York could mean trouble for the party nationally. Most polls predict that Republicans will take back the majority in the House of Representatives on Tuesday. They only need to win five seats to get a majority: All of them are winnable in the Democratic bastion of New York. Who gets a majority in the Senate is completely open. Fear of covid CONCERN: Like several large cities in the USA, New York City has become more dangerous in recent years. Here from shooting in Alphabet City in Manhattan in September. Photo: SPENCER PLATT / AFP A lot has happened in New York in recent years: The pandemic hit hard. The economy is going down. And the state has changed its controversial practice of detention and bail. Fewer people are now in prison before they have received a sentence. The Republicans believe this is the reason for increased crime. Lee Zeldin says he wants to tighten the law on bail again. For the Democrats to win, they first need to get people to the polls: In New York, there are twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans. A third of the Senate is up for election this year. This means that the Democrats may lose their majority here as well. One of those who will vote on Tuesday is 25-year-old Savannah. She is mostly concerned with the economy. – Inflation is sky high. Everyone is struggling. It is impossible to get by on one income. I hustle more. Everyone here in New York City works hard, says Savannah to news. DISAPPOINTED: Savannah (25) says everyone is struggling with the economy. She is disappointed with the Democrats. Photo: Tove Bjørgaas She herself works as a domestic worker, dog sitter and jewelery warehouse. Savannah is disappointed with the Democrats. – I will vote. But I don’t feel confident about any of these candidates. I’m not sure if any of them care about the people here, and if they’re going to invest in, say, education, to prevent people from becoming criminals. She does not look forward to the future. – We are a lost generation. No one wants to be a doctor or lawyer or public servant, everyone just wants to be an influencer. It looks dark, says the 25-year-old. American democracy is disintegrating. Trust in both the politicians and the electoral system is at rock bottom, and much is at stake before the nerve-wracking by-elections in November. Join longtime correspondent Tove Bjørgaas and journalist Camilla Bergland to Arizona, where counting votes is dangerous, and politicians say they will not trust the election results if they lose.
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