There is something unusual about Liverpool. After third place in May, you would think they needed new faces to fight for the title. It is almost a law in football that you should strengthen the team all the time. Are you losing matches? Buy, buy, buy. But before the current round, the Reds were leading the Premier League. In the Champions League, they have won three out of three. And the weirdest thing? The team is the same as before. All right, Liverpool have signed one player, but he hardly counts. Late in August they bought him here: REASONABLE BUY: Federico Chiesa has so far not scored a single goal for Liverpool. At the same time, he “only” cost around NOK 150 million. Photo: AP Federico Chiesa. Wing with injury problems. Could be good, but if he flops, he “only” cost around NOK 150 million. So far, Chiesa has played 18 minutes in the Premier League and scored zero goals. Liverpool also bought goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, but he will not arrive until next year. In practice, they have changed absolutely nothing. Which is unheard of. In football, the summer is like a tournament in itself. Who gets the stars? Who makes the coups? On social media, fans demand that the clubs sign this and that player. It has been windy at Anfield, where legendary coach Jürgen Klopp has said goodbye, and where only substitute Arne Slot and Chiesa have said hello. In August, the website Goal wrote a story wondering where the signings went. The title: “What’s happening in Liverpool?!” But sometimes it’s a good idea to sit quietly in the boat. The genius Michael Edwards, head of Liverpool’s long-term strategy, knows this. Edwards was the team’s sporting director from 2016 to 2022, when almost everything he touched – Alisson, Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk – turned to gold. He scrutinizes numbers and formulas to find the best, and never gives interviews. When Edwards left Anfield in 2022, he was wanted by many teams, among them Chelsea. Now he is back in charge of all football at Anfield, with Richard Hughes as sporting director. He has already hit it off with Slot. And fine, Liverpool have faced weak teams so far, and the lack of purchases could be punishing if the injuries come. But there are at least two reasons why Edwards has kept the powder dry: 1) The stable was already strong. Liverpool led the league as recently as April, and last year they brought in four central midfielders. 2) Flops do massive damage. You pay in the form of the transfer fee, salaries and poor performance. Perhaps the flop blocks the way for a more promising player. You also have to get rid of the boom purchase. It stings. Liverpool were chasing Martín Zubimendi, a midfielder who would control the passing game in front of the defence, but the Spaniard did not want to leave Real Sociedad. Many teams had continued with Plan B. You have to have someone. For Liverpool, no purchase is better than the wrong purchase. Who knows? Maybe they will get Zubimendi in the summer. REFUSED: Martín Zubimendi turned down Liverpool, who wanted to pay the buyout clause of around NOK 700 million. Photo: AFP The danger is that coaches require Plan B here, because they think more short-term. If the team loses, Slot loses his job. But Edwards chose Slot partly because he likes working with an athletic director, and Slot has not complained. – It is not always true that teams that buy players get stronger, Slot said in August. Liverpool have been here before. In the summer of 2019, they only brought in the reserve goalkeeper Adrián – for free. On paper it looked like they were standing still. And then they won the league for the first time in 30 years. The Gareth Bale trap Obviously teams should buy players sooner or later, but history shows that those who dominate over time rarely change too much at once. At Manchester United, Sir Alex Ferguson usually brought in between one and three players per year. Real Madrid have dominated the last decade by spending little net money on transfers, instead bringing in a couple of players every summer. Avoid mistakes. Get too few rather than too many. Chelsea have spent the most money on player purchases in the Premier League since they got new owners in May 2022. They have signed 40 players, according to the website Transfermarkt. The results so far are 12th place and 6th place. In 2013, Tottenham replaced star Gareth Bale by buying seven players of varying quality. Something similar happened to Liverpool after they lost Luis Suárez in 2014, and Barcelona when they had to let go of Luís Figo in 2000. If you have money, many feel they have to spend it. Not buying any is an art in itself. STARS: Tottenham bought seven players to replace Gareth Bale when he disappeared from the club in 2013. Photo: AP Do you know how often the team that has spent the most money has won the Premier League in the same season? Since 2005/06 it has happened once, and that was City in 2017/18. The one-second rule So you could say that many purchases in one summer can bear fruit later, and that’s true. But if the team is already good, you can keep calm. In 2014, journalist Simon Kuper and professor Stefan Szymanski published the book Soccernomics. There they chatted with Joan Oliver, who was general manager at Barcelona in 2009, when they won the Champions League with a team packed with stars from the academy. Oliver said that too many purchases at once destroyed the team. The reason was what he called the “one second rule”. FROM THE ACADEMY: Andres Iniesta and Lionel Messi after winning the Champions League in 2009. Photo: AP Decisions on the pitch take less than a second, Oliver said, and new players who don’t know their teammates take a little extra time with the ball. With too many of them at the same time, things go too slowly, and the team struggles. Players may well need a whole season before they deliver, he thought. This makes sense for Liverpool’s midfield, where several of the signings from last year have now finally found their flow, especially Ryan Gravenberch, who plays in the role Zubimendi should have had. Instead of making new purchases, Liverpool have given the old ones time. The professor’s verdict Soccernomics also studied the spending of 40 English teams from 1978 to 1997, and found that net spending on transfers has little to do with who wins. “Being a buying club did not help teams perform much better than a selling club,” said the book. It added: – Football clubs should make fewer transfers. Kuper and Szymanski found that wages explain 92 percent of the table, meaning that the connection between wages and points is strong. The teams that pay the most attract the best and keep them. This makes contract renewals more important than many people think. Three signings Edwards knows this, because Liverpool have been good at renewing deals … at least until now. In the summer, Salah, Van Dijk and Trent-Alexander Arnold can leave for free if they do not sign new contracts, a disaster Edwards wants to avert. Recently, Van Dijk said that he has started to negotiate with the club. TROUBLE: In the summer, Virgil van Dijk may be one of several who leave Liverpool for free if they do not sign new contracts. Photo: Antonio Calanni / AP These three signings are more important than bringing in a midfield anchor. If Liverpool are keeping money to pay them more, they are doing the right thing. Until then, Slot can do its part by facilitating more titles. The best thing for Liverpool’s midfield might have been if they got Zubimendi, or if they made another bargain. But without a transfer that made sense, Liverpool did the next best thing. They didn’t do anything. Published 27.10.2024, at 12.54
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