In recent years, we are witnessing radical changes in our climate system. The Earth’s climate is accumulating heat at an unprecedented rate, a conclusion confirmed by the fourth edition of the report Indicators of Global Climate Change.
Worrying Figures
The numbers present a sobering reality. According to a panel of over 70 researchers from 56 institutions, human activities have propelled global warming to 1.37 °C by 2025. Alarmingly, if trends continue, we are projected to surpass the critical 1.5 °C threshold within just four years.
An Unprecedented Rate of Warming
This analysis, underpinned by an extensive Earth observation network and aligned with the Copernicus program and NASA Earthdata, reveals that human-induced warming is escalating at a historical maximum of approximately 0.27 °C per decade. This rapid increase underscores the urgency of the climate crisis.
Understanding the Causes
The report identifies a lethal combination: record greenhouse gas levels coupled with a decline in sulfur dioxide emissions. Interestingly, the reduction of sulfur aerosols has “unmasked” the warming effects of greenhouse gases that were previously mitigated.
Piers Forster, lead study author and director of the Priestley Center for Climate Futures, emphasizes that the key to comprehending the crisis’s magnitude lies in the Earth’s energy imbalance, which indicates how quickly heat accumulates. Forster states:
“Without human influence, it should be close to zero, but it has been growing since the 1970s and is now at a record level, doubling in recent decades.”
The Critical Carbon Budget
A key takeaway from the scientific consortium is the updated carbon budget—defining the total amount of CO₂ humanity can emit before exceeding the 1.5 °C limit. By early 2026, this remaining budget was down to 130 gigatonnes of CO₂. Considering that global emissions reached a record 56.8 gigatonnes in 2024, it is projected that we will exhaust this budget within three years if current trends continue.
Oceans Under Pressure
Beyond air temperature, climate indicators indicate a pervasive impact across biomes. The oceans, our planet’s primary thermal sink, faced alarming conditions in 2025, experiencing 65 days of marine heat waves—tripling since 1991. This disruption threatens carbon exchange, alters acidity levels, and endangers coastal and marine ecosystems.
Rising Sea Levels
The continuous rise in sea levels, fueled by melting land ice and the thermal expansion of water, shows no signs of stabilization. Since 1901, records confirm a rise of 23 centimeters, with the current rate around 1.8 mm per year and accelerating.
In summary, the evidence is unequivocal: we are teetering on the edge of environmental catastrophe. Immediate and decisive action is required to address these escalating issues and avert reaching a point of no return.
Images | Marcin Jozwiak