Many have wondered where the border should go. While Ap has sunk to ever lower levels in the surveys, they have become even more steadfast in their communication that this is due to war in Europe and galloping inflation. When this natural law does not seem to affect their Swedish and Danish sister parties, they have supplemented it with the peculiarly Norwegian use of oil money as an alternative explanation. Now we know that the limit was 16.9. Not to quit or do anything drastic. But to let it be said that perhaps the Labor Party itself can bear some of the blame for voter flight. Potpourri of problems As always when a party is struggling hard, they get a thousand problem descriptions to flourish. Is it due to lack of visibility? Is it bad storytelling? Do they travel too little? Or does Støre travel abroad too much? Is politics too right-wing? Or rather too left-handed? Is it power politics? Or maybe the power tax? Or rather salmon tax? Too much tax? Too little tax? Do they lack a metropolitan policy? Have they forgotten the pensioners? And ordinary people? Is it the party leader? Or is it possibly the deputy? Is the problem perhaps the Center Party? And shouldn’t SV have been part of the government? Is the criticism from LO the cause? And critical newspaper commentators? Desired reprise from Trøndelag Or what seems to be many people’s favorite exercise, but which is most reminiscent of penalty rounds in biathlon: It is Trond Giske who is the problem. Trond Giske’s performance in the debate caused a stir, and some believe he is a major problem for the party. In any case, support for Giske appears to be inversely proportional to support for Jonas Gahr Støre’s Labor Party. Photo: André Børke / news While mayors say that they are not listened to, many seem to be most concerned that someone is lending an ear to a local association leader in Trøndelag. One thing seems obvious. Support for Giske appears to be inversely proportional to support for Jonas Gahr Støre’s Labor Party. This potpourri of explanations certainly has something to it, but is a poor compass for the party. If Støre had run after all these balls, he would never have gotten out of the ball bin. Støre’s self-examination In any case, the latest opinion poll from Dagsavisen and Free Trade Union Movement has had a function. Not only has it emptied the expression “crisis measurement” of content. The seriousness has apparently sunk into the party. “We have to look within ourselves and ask questions about how we work. In government, in the party, in communication to the voters,” Støre told Dagsavisen. But there is little indication that the party will change course. They seem convinced that they are on the right track. All that remains is to get the voters on board. What best describes the situation is something that was said when a group of party people recently discussed the Labor crisis: “Something must be done… but I have no idea what”. The numbers speak for themselves The media are regularly accused of spending too much space on opinion polls, but there are several reasons why the party strategists in Ap should spend time on them. Because there are two problems that can be read from the background figures. One is about politics. The second is about management and leadership. When Ap struggled in the years before the 2021 election, many of their voters went to the Center Party. Labor then changed its policy in a more district-friendly direction, and won voters back. When Ap struggled heavily in the early 2000s, voters went in large numbers to SV. Then Ap shifted its politics more to the left, and won back many voters. Now the voters go to the fence and to the Right. In survey after survey, there is a solid bourgeois majority. It can be understood in two ways: The voters miss the Conservative Party’s politics. Or the voters miss the Conservative Party’s management of the country. Can Ap have a political problem? Because it may look like the government’s answer lies in pulling politics more to the left. Many had thought that the national budget, with significant tax increases, more free services and a prioritization of the public sector, would lure back voters who had sat on the fence. It has caused a stir in the business world that the government uses a kind of “eat the rich” rhetoric about salmon barons, private nurseries and the need for major cleaning in working life. Now even Vedum sounds like Lysbakken, muttered an Ap politician in the background, who is worried that Ap is unrecognizable. She believes that broad settlements on tax should lie in APS’s backbone. If the problem is cuts in unemployment benefits or assistance, one would think SV and Rødt were at a sky-high level. Nevertheless, it is therefore where the Conservative voters generally go. Could Ap have a management problem? An alternative explanation is that people are not satisfied with the way Ap governs the country. Surveys that show that Conservative Party leader Erna Solberg has far higher trust than Jonas Gahr Støre and Trygve Slagsvold Vedum can substantiate this. The government obviously came off the cliff in a crooked way in handling the first crises that hit them. Both when it came to the electricity crisis and the pandemic, an impression was created of a government that was poorly prepared, that was behind and that struggled to communicate. Obvious blunders and weak internal processes, such as the Søgne case, cabinet resignations and budget problems, reinforced the impression of a government that was not completely in control. It is an impression that may have spread to other matters, and which the opposition is doing its best to reinforce. The government’s minister for tourism An alternative theory that has emerged last week is that Jonas Gahr Støre is too busy running the country to travel around the country. But the answer cannot possibly be that the prime minister will become a kind of government’s Uncle Reisende Mac. Støre is completely dependent on the people around him who enable him to understand the country and the party, and vice versa. Which doesn’t necessarily get him into Maskorama. But that makes him speak and act in a way that makes the country and the party understand him. Grounding and good listening posts are therefore absolutely essential. One issue that has revealed that this is not entirely in order is the much-discussed salmon tax. It could be a winning case for the government, but has instead become a symptom of a government struggling with just that. Some believe that Støre’s problem is that he travels too much around the country. Støre is completely dependent on the people around him who enable him to understand the country and the party, and vice versa. Which makes him speak and act in a way that makes the country and the party understand him. Photo: Stig Jaarvik / news Sour mood There is broad agreement that the industry must pay more to the community. Now it sounds even in the salmon industry that their biggest wish is to pay more tax. Nevertheless, the mood has soured in many Ap- and Sp-dominated municipalities along the coast. One of the moments from Thursday’s Debate that was drowned in Giske noise were the statements of APS’ mayor in Ørland, Ogne Undertun: He said that “this came like lightning from the blue and at internal meetings we are told that this is no use discuss”. He also added that “the fisheries minister is perceived as arrogant and does not want to discuss with the industry”. To listen or not to listen. That is the question. Deputy leader and fisheries minister Bjørnar Skjæran apparently does not seem to take that concern very seriously. He does not recognize himself in the description and adds that he has “good meetings with the industry and our mayors, and feels that we have a very good dialogue”, Skjæran said on news’s Helgemorgen. Fisheries Minister and deputy chairman Bjørnar Skjæran obviously does not share the description of reality that coastal mayors feel overrun and not listened to. Photo: Lars-Petter Kalkenberg / news Can both be right at the same time? At least they can feel that they are both right, but it is a crisis sign for the lines of communication in a party. It is not unusual in organizations that are not quite what they should be for the management to feel that they are listening, but they are not really doing it. In the same way that the grassroots feel that they speak clearly, but don’t really do it. It requires a mutual understanding of reality and trust. Because there are guaranteed to be many more salmon tax-like cases where there is disagreement in the party. It’s not about everyone getting their way. But a prerequisite for people to close the ranks is that they experience being seen, heard and understood.
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“Something has to be done … but I have no idea what” – Statement
