This past weekend, the global focus was firmly on the escalating tension in the Middle East . Israel and Iran have crossed a crucial threshold, launching direct attacks that have impacted not only military targets but also strategic infrastructure such as oil refineries and gas plants. According to Bloomberg, this situation could pivot towards a full-blown conflict, one that would significantly reconfigure the global energy balance .
An unprecedented surge in oil prices. Until this point, crude prices had been declining due to increased output from OPEC+, which was creating internal rifts. However, in the wake of these recent escalations, the market has responded with nervousness , immediately pushing prices upward. Brent crude has surged over 8% , while WTI has seen a 4% increase, as reported by OilPrice. In parallel, there has been a spike in the purchase of hedging options by traders worried that the price per barrel may exceed $100 .
The flow of crude remains uninterrupted. As warned by energy expert Javier Blas, while the physical flow of crude has not stopped, the market is playing a dangerous game . The fear isn’t a new phenomenon, but the scale and direction of these attacks have ignited alarms not seen since the Gulf War. According to Blas, “the over-supply is evident,” but in the Middle East , one has to wonder what might be the final straw .
Furthermore, with the magnitude of the attacks—including Israel’s bombardment of one of Iran’s largest refineries—the real concern lies in Iran’s potential strategy of economic deterrence should they be unable to retaliate in kind. There is a risk that Iran may opt to close the Strait of Hormuz , a vital passage through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, as highlighted by OilPrice.
Spain could be affected. Although Iranian crude has been under international sanctions and not imported into Spain, this doesn’t mean that the situation won’t impact global market volatility . As detailed by energy journalist Rebecca F. Elliott in The New York Times, oil is a global commodity ; any crisis in a producing region affects the final price paid by all nations. Spain imports crude from other regions—such as Nigeria, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, or Mexico—which will also experience cost escalations due to fears of supply disruptions .
The impact on wallets. The consequences are clear: gasoline and diesel prices will rise, making transportation and food distribution more expensive, which, in turn, contributes to overall inflation . Even electricity prices may be affected, in a context where part of the energy system still relies on natural gas and oil. This situation emphasizes the urgency of accelerating the energy transition and diversifying energy sources—an objective set by the European Union since the Russian gas crisis.
Watch for warning signs. Though the markets are currently well-stocked, as declared by Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, several factors could change the situation drastically: further direct attacks on Iranian oil fields, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reduced purchases of Iranian crude by China, rising maritime insurance in the region, and military escalation involving the U.S. If any of these elements come into play, the barrel price could exceed $100, possibly triggering a real supply crisis , as warned by Javier Blas.
Diplomacy is on a tightrope. The conflict between Iran and Israel will be the central theme during the G7 meeting occurring today in Canada. According to APNews, U.S. President Donald Trump has urged both parties to reach an agreement but has also stated that “sometimes they need to fight,” leaving doubts regarding how much he will actively curb his Israeli allies. Meanwhile, Bloomberg has highlighted Israel’s call for international support to maintain pressure on Tehran. However, many European leaders are wary of an uncontrollable escalation that could spike crude prices and further deteriorate the global economy.
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