Microsoft and Apple have been pivotal in defining the PC segment, transforming computers into a commodity. Today, the computer has become standard, common, and easily interchangeable among users, resulting in minimal differentiation between models. In this intense battle, it was Microsoft and Intel that managed to secure a substantial portion of the profits generated by this transformation.
As the technology landscape evolved, the focus shifted to mobile computing. The mobile segment saw a significant victory for Apple, primarily through its iOS ecosystem, alongside Google’s Android, which solidified its dominant position. However, it’s noteworthy that the foundational players in this segment were not just Apple and Google. Amazon emerged as an unexpected contender, gaining influence by capitalizing on cloud services.
Amazon’s significant advancements through Amazon Web Services (AWS) not only pioneered the cloud computing model but also turned it into another commodity. Like Microsoft and Apple before them, Amazon successfully capitalized on this transformation, claiming a considerable share of the cloud market profits. The ubiquitous access to this cloud infrastructure—particularly through devices like the iPhone —is often taken for granted; users benefit from it, though its underlying complexities remain obscured.
As analyst Ben Thompson articulates, they have all become commodities.
Looking ahead, there is a growing expectation that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will also evolve into another commodity. This expectation raises the possibility that the AI sector may establish a duopoly akin to the ones formed by Microsoft and Intel in the PC space or Apple and Google in the mobile market. Foundational AI models are poised to be as transformative as PCs or mobile devices, yet the ultimate winner in this field remains to be determined.
AI as a Commodity
In this dynamic landscape, GPT-5 emerges as a critical player, aspiring to position itself as the defining standard in AI, similar to how AWS did for cloud computing. OpenAI aims for GPT-5 to influence the broader transition of AI into a commodity.
Sam Altman, head of OpenAI, stands at the crossroads of two paths: the success of ChatGPT, which has made a significant impact but has yet to be revolutionary, and managing the hype surrounding emerging technologies. This excitement is fed with innovative promises and groundbreaking releases, like GPT-4 and the visually stunning creations reminiscent of Studio Ghibli.
However, while ChatGPT offers real utility and has proven to be especially effective as a programming assistant, the so-called “revolution” seems to be lagging. There is an undeniable fervor for generative AI, influencing various industries to invest their futures in this technology. Yet, history suggests that real revolutions take time to develop.
Analogies with previous technological waves, such as PCs, the Internet, and mobile devices, are palpable. Each segment experienced initial skepticism, followed by exaggerated expectations—hello, dot-com bubble—and ultimately, genuine transformation. Experts propose that a similar trajectory is in the cards for AI, albeit with a more cautious tone. Some believe we’re in the midst of another bubble, which could either deflate or lead to the true revolution, akin to the evolution of the Internet.
The stakes for OpenAI with GPT-5 are monumental. This model represents a pivotal juncture for the company, as it strives for the most significant leap in AI capabilities at a time when such advancements are deemed daunting. The outcomes of this endeavor are crucial; any setbacks akin to the aftermath of GPT-4.5 could severely damage its reputation.
The essential question remains: Can OpenAI achieve with GPT-5 what giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon successfully accomplished in their respective markets? The answer to that question will require time and observation, as the landscape of AI continues to unfold.
In closing, the journey of AI toward becoming a commodity reflects larger trends in technology: transformative moments punctuated by hype and skepticism, where only the most adaptable and innovative players emerge victorious. The future promises significant advancements, and only time will tell who will grasp the reins of this dynamic shift.