This is not what one might call a start -up start. Plurged by a late budget vote, by the imperative to reduce the public deficit and by the threatening international context, the French economy increased by only 0.1 % in the first quarter, according to the first estimates published on Wednesday April 30 by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). A figure in accordance with expectations, which succeeds 2024 at low speed, since growth had then reached 1.1 %.
On April 10, the government fell its growth forecast for 2025 to 0.7 % (compared to 0.9 % previously), due to the negative consequences of the trade war launched by Donald Trump. Will he be able to hold this goal? “It’s not unrealistic”Evaluates Maxime Darmet, economist at Allianz Trade. “It’s going to be a fight” And “We will support companies”said the Minister of the Economy, Eric Lombard, on Sud Radio, Tuesday shortly after the publication of the figures. Despite this inexpensive first quarter, the growth achievement already reaches 0.4 %, estimates Marie Leclair, head of the national accounts department at INSEE. According to the Institute, the gross domestic product should increase by 0.2 % in each of the next three quarters to reach 0.7 %.
The Banque de France, at the origin of the growth forecast on which Bercy is based, is prudent. “We will update [notre prévision] In June, Explained, Monday, April 28, Governor François Villeroy de Galhau on Monday, April 28. Why are we not updating today with these protectionist threats? Because it is very difficult to isolate an element of all the others. There are a lot of uncertainty. There are certain elements that can play positively, such as reviving in Germany. »»
Decrease in food consumption
These multiple uncertainties on the side of the international environment are coupled with a certain gloom on a national scale. Consumption stagnated in the first quarter, and even dropped clearly ( – 1 %) in March. Yet, “Consumers are starting to take note of disinflationnotes Stéphane Colliac, economist at BNP Paribas. Confidence has stabilized between two waters, but has not completely left. Especially since the fear of unemployment and concerns about the future standard of living have increased ».
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