– It is very small to zero. Political commentator Trond Birkedal talks about the chance that the mayor of Stavanger will still be called Kari Nessa Nordtun after the election. Political commentator Trond Birkedal. Photo: Elise Pedersen / news The Labor Party took over power in the energy capital after the previous election. At that time, Høgre Bore had the chain of mayors for 24 years straight, and Ap had not lifted the club since 1993. – It is not the Labor Party itself that I have little faith in, because they can still make a better choice in Stavanger than is expected at the measurements. But they lack well over 10 per cent that their partner party has lost. The majority party in Stavanger gathered. Here Ap governs together with SV, the People’s Party FNB, the Center Party and Raudt. Photo: Marte Skodje / news The Labor Party secured a majority by entering into a broad collaboration with the Center Party, MDG, Raudt, SV and the People’s Party FNB (formerly People’s Action No to more tolls). But the latter is now, so to speak, erased in the opinion polls, even though in 2019 they had a support of 9.2 percent in Stavanger. – It looks difficult for the Labor Party both in Stavanger and in a number of other metropolitan municipalities, says political commentator on news, Lars Nehru Sand. Political commentator in news, Lars Nehru Sand. Photo: Vidar Ruud Power in the populous cities If you go to Store norske lexikon’s list of the largest cities and towns in Norway, you have to go all the way down to Sandefjord to find a municipality that is not governed by the Labor Party. But several of the mayors and city council leaders in the largest urban municipalities are insecure, according to Nehru Sand. – Yes, I would say that. With the exception of perhaps Oslo and Trondheim, where Ap is in a relatively good position, Høgre seems to be in the best position with a view to regaining power in the most populous municipalities in Norway. – With the great progress that Høgre has had from the election in 2021 until today, many high-profile Labor party mayors are insecure. Not least in Stavanger and Sandnes, Johan Giertsen wins in the Poll of polls. Johan Giertsen in Poll of polls. Photo: Terje Pedersen / NTB They collect all published opinion polls in Norway. – But Høgre cannot do it alone. They must build constellations if they are to win the mayor’s office, adds Giertsen. He is himself a member of Høgre. Rogaland can turn blue again Rogaland is a county where Høgre has historically been strong. Today, three out of four residents in the county live in an Ap-led municipality, even though the party only has the mayor in eight out of 23 municipalities. And of the voters, hardly one in four voted for them. The reason is that they govern in populous municipalities such as Stavanger, Sandnes, Karmøy and Haugesund. And that they do it with the help of both broad and non-traditional collaborations with other parties. But after the election, the picture will be completely different, predicts Trond Birkedal. – I think it will be quite the opposite. Then I think three out of four Rogalanders live in a municipality governed by Høgre. Much prestige in governing the big Losing several of the populous municipalities will be a great loss for the Labor Party, Nehru Sand believes. Not only because it is where the most people live and the most voters, but also because these large urban municipalities are showcases for running politics. There, the party can also influence social development in Norway from central positions. – So what kind of metropolitan municipalities they manage to hold onto is probably one of the things the Labor Party cares about the most, next to the big national election result, says Nehru Sand. Trond Birkedal thinks it would be a big loss of prestige if Ap lost the mayor in Stavanger after only one term. – The most important thing was what happened four years ago, when Ap showed that they can actually gain power in Stavanger. If they lose it after four years, after they themselves feel that they have delivered a lot of good policy, then it is a huge loss for the Labor Party. Not only in Stavanger, but also nationally. It was supposed to be a showcase. But the mayor himself is not ready to throw in the towel. Mayor of Stavanger, Kari Nessa Nordtun Photo: Marte Skodje / news (archive image) – Trond Birkedal didn’t think I would become mayor in 2019 either, and I will prove him wrong this time too, says Kari Nessa Nordtun. – The most important thing for me is to make the lives of the 146,000 inhabitants of Stavanger better, and I hope that I can continue with that in the next term.
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