Teknomers Poll: RN leads significantly in voting intentions amid potential new dissolution.

A recent  poll  conducted by Elabe for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche reveals significant shifts in the  political landscape  of France. One year after President Emmanuel Macron’s dissolution of the National Assembly, the Rassemblement National (RN) is poised at the top of voters’  intentions , ahead of the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) and the Ensemble party, should new legislative elections be called.

Approximately a year has passed since the  dissolution  of the National Assembly, a move that Macron admitted has led to “more divisions than solutions.” At that time, during the  early legislative elections  in July, the NFP, a coalition of La France Insoumise, Europe Écologie Les Verts, the Socialist Party, and the French Communist Party, secured 180 seats, edging out Ensemble, which garnered 159 seats, while RN trailed closely behind with 143 seats.

However, current dynamics seem vastly different. The Elabe poll indicates that should a new dissolution occur, the RN could expect to capture between  32.5% and 33%  of voter intentions, up significantly from the  24.7%  it received during last year’s legislative elections.

The Left Surpassing Ensemble

In a scenario where the left unites, the NFP could secure  21%  of the votes (down from  31.2%  last year), followed by Ensemble at  15.5%  (compared to  27.5%  in 2024) and Les Républicains with  10%  (down from  11.6% ). Conversely, if the left remains divided, a  PS/EELV/PCF  coalition (16%) would surpass La France Insoumise (LFI), which sits at  10% .

Regardless of the scenario for the left, Ensemble is projected to capture  15.5%  of the voting intentions. Remarkably, the presidential camp taps into  63-64%  of its  electoral base  from 2024, with less favorable options being a left candidate or a candidate from the Republicans. Furthermore, a modest percentage of LR (Les Républicains) voters (12-15%) appear to be leaning toward Ensemble.

Under its banner, LR is forecasted to achieve between  10-10.5%  of the voting intentions, gaining only a fraction of its 2024 voters (51-53%) while also drawing in a considerable section of Ensemble voters (12-15%).

RN, the Major Beneficiary of the Dissolution?

With hindsight, many  French citizens  perceive the RN as the primary beneficiary of the  dissolution . Currently,  42%  of respondents believe that the RN is the party that has emerged from this political crisis in a stronger position, reflecting an increase of  8 points  over the past six months. This viewpoint resonates across various voter demographics. Conversely, only  10%  of those surveyed perceive the NFP as the party most strengthened by this political episode, with a mere  5%  crediting the Republicans or the presidential camp.

Finally, a noteworthy  38%  of participants believe that no political faction has emerged victorious from this series of events.