The world is set to emit 37.5 billion tonnes of CO₂ this year. This shows calculations that the Global Carbon Project publishes on Friday. The increase from last year to this year is 1.0 per cent. That is almost twice as much as the average over the last decade, at 0.6 per cent per year. Glen Peters is a research leader at the Cicero Center for Climate Research and part of the leadership team in the Global Carbon Project (GCP). He says that many countries, cities, companies and individuals have made promises to reduce their emissions. – Despite all the promises, global CO2 emissions from fossil sources are more than 5 percent higher than in 2015 when the Paris Agreement was adopted, says Peters. The graph shows how emissions have grown despite short-term declines during the fall of the Soviet Union, the financial crisis and the pandemic. Photo: Global Carbon Project/Cicero – I was wrong When news interviewed Glen Peters two years ago, he said that “2019 may turn out to be the year in history with the largest emissions”. It was after barely a year of the pandemic, which had led to a sharp drop in emissions. – I was wrong, says Peters today about his prediction from two years ago. While emissions decreased by 5.2 percent in 2020, they jumped up 5.6 percent last year and have continued to increase this year. – We should probably have learned from what happened during the financial crisis, when emissions quickly picked up again, says Peters. When asked if he wants to try again to predict when the world will reach the emission peak, the climate scientist replies “I’m starting to lose faith”. – It is possible that we can manage to keep emissions flat for the next decade, says Peters. Coal still worst The figures show that it is coal that accounts for the largest emissions. Just over 40 per cent of the total fossil CO₂ emissions come from coal. At the climate summit in Glasgow last year, it was decided that the world should step in to “phase down” the use of coal. For 2022, there is nevertheless an increase in emissions from coal of 1.0 per cent. In that case, it will make 2022 the year with the most emissions from coal in history. The result is that mining companies have made huge profits on coal this year. According to Bloomberg, mining giant Glencore Plc earned over NOK 90 billion in the first half of this year. Historically, the USA is the country responsible for the largest emissions. Photo: Global Carbon Project/Cicero India and the USA The report shows that there have been particularly large increases in India, the USA and international aviation. For India, an increase of as much as 6 percent is expected this year. It is driven by strong growth in emissions from coal and gas. – India’s CO2 emissions from fossil sources have grown by more than 3 per cent on average over the past ten years, and have now overtaken emissions from the EU in total. But India is a large country and the emissions per inhabitant are still only a third of those in the EU, says senior researcher at Cicero Robbie Andrew. The USA is the country that has been behind the most CO2 emissions that have contributed to climate change. For 2022, it is expected that the country’s emissions will rise by 1.5 per cent, more than the world average. A coal-fired power plant in Lanzhou in China in full operation. Photo: AP Decline in the EU and China In China and the EU, it appears that there has been a decline in emissions. For China, it is likely that it will decrease by 0.9 percent. Part of the reason is that things are not going so well in China. The country is struggling with Covid shutdowns, the collapse in the building sector and economic headwinds have limited the growth in energy consumption this year. – At the same time, there has been continued growth in renewable energy. Wind and solar energy now make up more than 10 percent of the total electricity production for the first time, says senior researcher at Cicero Jan Ivar Korsbakken. The energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected the EU more than other regions. Russia has stopped the gas supply, which has led to a 10 per cent reduction in emissions from gas. Nevertheless, the total decrease in CO2 emissions from fossil sources is only 0.8 per cent. This is due to a sharp increase in emissions from coal. Annual CO2 emissions per inhabitant in selected countries. Photo: Global Carbon Project/Cicero Nine years to go Fossil sources account for the vast majority of emissions, but some also come from other sources. Change in land use is the most important. In total, GCP expects the world to emit 40.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ this year. Scientists have calculated that if the world is to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, the world must not emit more than 360 billion tonnes of CO₂ in total. Then there must be a complete stop. With 40 billion tonnes of emissions this year, the world only has nine years left at the same rate if we are to reach the 1.5 degree target. After that, the temperature will continue to rise until the total CO2 emissions are cut to zero.
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Strong increase in CO₂ emissions in 2022 – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
