The tidal wave that hit Spain last Tuesday left more than 200 dead, and caused hundreds of thousands to lose access to water and electricity. The death toll is the highest in a flood event in Europe since 1967, and is expected to rise further in the coming days. In the worst affected areas, more than 400 millimeters of rain fell on Tuesday. – A relatively strong storm, a heavy downpour, such as those we see fall in the spring or summer, can be 40 or 50 millimeters. This practically multiplies it by 10, Rubén del Campo, a spokesman for Spain’s meteorological agency, told El País. A preliminary analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) estimates that rain as heavy as Spain received is twice as likely in today’s climate compared to before global warming. Warmer air brings more rain In recent years, scientists have warned that the water in the Mediterranean is heating up quickly, rising as much as 3-5°C above normal. Since warm air can hold more moisture, the potential for catastrophic downpours increases. And that’s exactly what happened in Spain last week: Warm and humid air from the Mediterranean was forced up along the terrain in eastern Spain. It brought significant rainfall along the coast and triggered a huge flood, locally called riadas. The Mediterranean coast of Spain, especially the Valencia and Catalonia regions, are very vulnerable to these floods. Before and after photos of the destruction. To investigate whether climate change affected the heavy rainfall, WWA looked at trends in the historical rainfall observations in the region. The three data sets that were analyzed show that heavy downpours lasting one day, like the one in Spain, are about twelve percent more intense and twice as likely in today’s climate. WWA’s analysis was made just a few days after the storm, and is not based on as extensive models as they usually use. But they stress that the findings are in line with similar, more extensive studies, and what climate science says. The photo shows the V30 motorway in the Valencia region before and after the flood. “Unfortunately, it was not very surprising that the conclusion is that humans influence the rainfall in Europe, and that we are seeing those results now with partly extreme events,” says Hans Olav Hygen, climate researcher at the Methodist Institute. Climate researcher Anne Sopie Daloz at Cicero calls the flood in Spain “very disturbing”, and agrees with Hygen. – We expect more extreme events, more rainy events in Europe. And the intensity is influenced by human climate change, says Daloz. The photo shows extensive damage in Paiporta, a town just south of Valencia city. Destructive floods are increasing Europe has seen several devastating floods in recent years with very high death tolls, for example in Germany and Belgium in 2021 where 239 people died. Climate scientist Hans Olav Hygen. Photo: Tom Balgaard / news Norway is no exception. Because almost at the same time as Spain was hit by the torrential rain, the extreme weather “Jakob” hit here at home. – We are not exempt in any way from the major events we see in the world. We see that the amount of precipitation contracts in stronger showers. And Norway is only a small piece in the big global game, says Hygen. In 2023, it was extreme weather Hans that caused enormous destruction. The damage is already expected to approach NOK 4 billion, according to Aftenposten’s estimate. In Spain, the authorities have received harsh criticism for poor crisis mobilization ahead of the heavy rain. Climate scientist Daloz says the incident is a reminder that we must prepare for what comes in the future. – Otherwise, the costs are enormous. And I’m not just talking about financial costs. But here we are talking about so many lives. Warmer, wetter and wilder Climate change has already changed where, how often and how strongly the world experiences floods, and can lead to more and more serious landslides, according to the UN climate panel. This is, among other things, because Europe and other parts of the world have experienced a lot of extreme precipitation in recent years the years. Man-made climate change is already increasing the chance of the rain becoming so extreme. Lars Tore Endresen / news What has happened so far? When the temperature rises, more water evaporates, and the atmosphere can hold more water. This means that the rainfall becomes more concentrated and intense, according to the climate panel. They say that spring floods come earlier than before, and that floods come more often and more strongly than before in many places in the world. The Norwegian Public Roads Administration What do we know about landslides? Increased rainfall and melting of snow and glaciers can also increase the risk of landslides, especially in steep mountain areas. In addition to climate change, population growth and tourism are also factors that make landslides more likely in the future, because there will be more pressure on nature. Can we do something about it? The less greenhouse gases the world emits in the coming years, the less warming we will get. Then the risk of extreme weather linked to water will also decrease. In addition, there are measures such as warning systems and better planning of infrastructure, which can limit the worst damage. Countries around the world have pledged to try to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. With today’s policy, we are facing 2.8 degrees of warming, according to UNEP. Published 04.11.2024, at 22.38
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