This weekend, people around the world saw the televised images from Moscow: A solemn ceremony in a Kremlin banquet hall, in which Putin declares new Ukrainian territories “Russian” – “forever”. At the same time, the Russian defense forces must give their soldiers a notice to withdraw after Ukrainian advances in the town of Lyman. To news, the former top diplomat Kai Eide summarizes the latest developments in the war in Ukraine as follows: – What we see from the Ukrainian side is that the offensives from a few weeks ago are continuing. They are able to continue their advance on what Putin now calls Russian territory. Eide says Putin has thus “put himself in a very difficult situation”. – How does he react to this situation? He has celebrated magnificently before the weekend in Moscow, and then you can see that this does not hold up in the face of reality. That, for me, is the big question. – Do you think Putin will become more dangerous with these defeats? – Yes I think so. He becomes more dangerous because he will have a need to show that he is not losing face. He is facing a Ukrainian offensive. That might make him even more pressured and even more unpredictable. – That’s what I’m anxious about. The former top diplomat Kai Eide was a guest on the news program “Weekend Morning” on Sunday morning. Photo: Halldor Asvall / news Russian defeat in Lyman Two posts on the social media Telegram at the weekend: A Russian flag has been thrown on the ground. Behind are Ukrainian soldiers with Ukrainian flags. Another soldier says, “Welcome to Lyman, you bastards.” The photos are from the city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine. It is an important junction for railway lines in Ukraine. But more importantly: It is in Donetsk, which Putin, along with three other regions, has just incorporated into Russia – to strong international protests. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg says it is against international law and that the areas are Ukrainian territory. In the UN Security Council, there was a heated debate, where the only thing that stopped a condemnation was Russia’s veto vote. Ukrainian soldiers make a statement outside the administration building in Lyman in Donetsk county – which Russia claims is “Russian”. The still image is taken from a video posted on Telegram on Saturday night. Photo: 81 AIRBORNE BRIGADE OF THE UKRAINIAN armed forces / Reuters Owned: – The possibility of nuclear weapons use has increased After the news of the defeat in Lyman, the authoritarian leader in Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov said that Russia must consider using tactical nuclear weapons on the ground in Ukraine. Putin himself pointed to nuclear weapons in his September speech in which he announced “partial” military mobilization. Later, the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, who has also been Russian president and prime minister, said that “Russia is ready to defend Russian territory using all types of weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons.” Eide says it is very difficult to say whether Putin will actually use nuclear weapons. – But the possibility has probably become stronger now than it was a few weeks ago. Not least since thanks to the moves Putin himself has made, and what he himself has said. Kai Eide says the latest developments in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine make Putin more dangerous. Photo: Halldor Asvall / news Expert: Putin is more vulnerable Recently, men have fled to other countries from Russia to avoid being conscripted into military service for the war in Ukraine. Håvard Bækken is a researcher at the Department of Defense Studies and has studied Russian patriotism. He says there are many people who express anger and distaste for the mobilization. – The Russian population has never been ready to take this step from passively supporting the war as it takes place on TV screens, to taking part in active acts of war. – What kind of consequence could this have for Putin’s position in Russia? – I don’t think we can expect the Kremlin to be stormed today or tomorrow. But the situation is still quite dramatic. The researcher says that drawing the population into the war in this way violates Putin’s “social contract” with the Russians: The population must have their privacy and personal security in peace, even if they are used to political oppression, says Bøkken. – This increases Putin’s vulnerability in future crises. Bad news will have greater resonance in the population and thus be scarier, and perhaps divisions in the elite. It can also lead to sand in the war machine and lower morale at the front. Believes Putin has a “fear contract” with the Russians Advisor to the Norwegian Helsinki Committee Aage Borchgrevink follows Russia closely. – The Ukraine war was sold as a “special operation” to the Russians. It should not touch the Russians. Now it does. The consequence is that the entire building of Putin shakes, says Borchgrevink. He believes that Putin in his time as president has had various “unwritten contracts” with the Russians, and that the one that exists now is a “contract of fear”. – If you watch Russian TV, there is talk of nuclear war and that “the West is after us”. Any protest or dissent is met with batons and imprisonment to an even greater extent than before. The whole of Russian society is characterized by fear, says Borchgrevink. – It is also a dangerous thing to base a contract on. It is difficult to know how people react when they are in a fearful situation. Aage Borchgrevink is an advisor to the Norwegian Helsinki Committee. Photo: Halldor Asvall / news
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