– If I didn’t have solar cells and a battery in my house, I think it would be dark here now, and I wouldn’t be able to communicate with you. This is what Hatmut Winkler says over a video connection from a suburb of Johannesburg in South Africa. He is a professor of physics at the University of Johannesburg and one of his areas of expertise is solar energy. In South Africa, it is old coal-fired power plants that create the majority of the electricity in the country. But the coal-fired power plants are worn out and this means that the country is experiencing more and more power cuts. Therefore, more and more South Africans have taken matters into their own hands, and installed private solar cells on the roofs of their homes and businesses. In just one year, the capacity from rooftop solar cells has increased by 349 per cent in South Africa. This is shown by data from the national energy company Eskom. In March 2022, the capacity was 983 megawatts from rooftop solar cells, but by June 2023 it had risen to 4,412 megawatts. – One thing it shows is that people can become surprisingly resilient when faced with difficulties, says Hartmut Winkler. South Africa has invested in coal To understand why there is currently an increase in private solar cells in South Africa, one must know that the country has historically invested heavily in getting its energy from coal. Back in the 70s and 80s, enormous coal-fired power plants were built in the country, because it was very easy to obtain from the country’s huge coal reserves. This meant that cheap electricity was supplied to a great many South Africans. But now the large coal-fired power plants are worn out and even though they tried to build two large new coal-fired power plants in 2008, things went so wrong that they have never started operations. – The coal-fired power plants slowly started to cause more and more problems, says Hartmut Winkler. – To avoid power outages, the coal-fired power stations are pushed more than they should be. Maintenance work is mostly not done anymore. Instead, they drive much longer than they should. And like an old car, if you drive it too far, it will break down. They are also where we are now, where only approx. 50 per cent of all coal-fired power stations work, he says, and explains that the country lacks approx. three gigawatts. Lack of electricity several hours a day Because not enough electricity is produced to cover the need for electricity, the national energy company Eskom has planned power cuts – called power cuts or load shedding. – It’s all arranged according to timetables, so everyone knows when it’s going to happen, says Hartmut Winkler. But even if you know when to expect a power outage, it still has major consequences. – Depending on how serious the situation is, you may only experience a two-hour power cut a day. But maybe you get them five times a day. Then you can lose everything between two hours a day and in extreme cases around 10 hours a day, he says and adds: – If you try to have a business under such conditions it can be enormously difficult. Many businesses have found that they simply cannot work that way. It has also led to protests. The economy is badly affected and South Africa is also struggling with high unemployment – especially among young people. According to the UN Development Programme, approximately one third of the population lacks paid work. Hartmut Winkler also mentions that the power cuts cause problems in traffic – because when the power goes out, the traffic lights don’t work either – just as it affects hospitals and health centres. Political support creates great demand So it is the lack of reliable electricity that has caused so many South Africans to use the far more sustainable solution of installing solar cells. – One of the reasons why we have seen this increase in solar energy is the result that there are no other solutions – and then the government has introduced measures where you can get tax deductions if you install solar panels. You get 25 percent of the price back. There also used to be a lot of administrative hurdles. It has made it much easier, says Hartmut Winkler. He himself has kept an eye on developments in his neighbourhood, a suburb in Johannesburg where things are also moving forward. – If you look at how many people had solar panels just three years ago, it was only around two to three percent of houses, a very low number. But now we are approaching 25 percent. It is still low, but it has clearly risen. Most of that development has taken place within a year, especially in January and February, because it was then that it really dawned on people that the situation was serious, says Hartmut Winkler. It was at the same time that he himself chose to get solar cells in his home. Then he could notice that there was a great demand. At the beginning of 2023, South Africa reached a record import of solar cells – three times as many solar cells were imported as at the same time last year. Not everyone can afford solar cells Although the vast majority of people are affected by the power outages in South Africa, they still affect some more than others. Not everyone can afford to buy themselves free from the problem. – A problem right now is that we are in a situation where those who can afford it install solar panels, but there are many people who cannot afford it, says Hartmut Winkler. That is why he believes that the government must step up and invest in large solar parks and wind turbines. – What the country really needs is public investment in solar and wind energy, he says. – This country has great opportunities to utilize wind and solar energy, because we get more than twice as many hours of sunshine as I think you do in Denmark. The wind is probably quite similar, but maybe a little better here on our coast. So it would make good sense to develop these technologies, he says. This is also confirmed by data from the World Bank. They have developed a map which is colored dark red in the areas where there are good conditions for utilizing solar energy. Large parts of South Africa are some of the darkest red parts of the map. – I think it would be possible to scale up to 50 percent solar and wind energy within the next 15-20 years. But that requires someone to take the lead, and right now that is not happening at government level, says Hartmut Winkler. Nevertheless, he is optimistic about the future – even though the majority of the energy sector in South Africa is powered by coal. – It cannot stop, because people have simply seen how well the solar cells have worked for other people, he says. – Sometimes a crisis can lead to change and make things better, and I think that is what we have done.
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Large increase in solar cell use in South Africa
