The Critical Role of Desalination Plants if War Erupts Between the US and Iran
The world is fixated on the Strait of Hormuz as tensions rise between the U.S.-led coalition and Iran. While headlines focus on fluctuating oil prices and the potential disruption of LNG exports, a more basic and dire threat lurks beneath the surface—water scarcity. As analyst Javier Blas warns, if all-out war ignites, our most critical resource will not be oil, but water.
The Strategic Importance of Water
Historically, the importance of water security has been recognized by U.S. intelligence. A declassified CIA report from the 1980s identified drinking water, not oil, as the true strategic commodity in the Middle East. The implication is profound: military conflicts may hinge on the availability of this vital resource rather than quantities of fossil fuels.
The Emerging Threat Landscape
Iran, recognizing its military disadvantages against the U.S. and Israel, has adopted a strategy that targets “soft targets,” particularly those vital to civilian survival. Recent attacks on key infrastructure—such as a power plant in Fujairah, U.A.E., responsible for operating one of the world’s largest desalination facilities—highlight this alarming trend. In neighboring Kuwait, drone debris ignited a fire at another vital water facility.
The Saudi Ras Tanura refinery, located perilously close to critical desalination complexes, has also faced drone strikes. These actions reflect a disturbing pattern: if Iran chooses to attack desalination facilities, the consequences could be catastrophic.
The Fragile Balance of Water Dependence
The Arabian Peninsula relies heavily on desalination for its water supply, with countries like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia sourcing up to 90% and 70% of their drinking water from these plants, respectively. The dynamics are stark—should these facilities come under fire, nations would face immediate humanitarian crises.
Reports suggest that Riyadh could be evacuated in just a week if its sole water pipeline were compromised. Similarly, Qatar has acknowledged that, in an event of massive water contamination, the nation could exhaust its drinking water reserves in as little as three days.
Energy-Water Nexus: A Dangerous Interdependence
Desalination plants are energy-intensive, consuming close to 6% of Saudi Arabia’s total electricity. They are often situated alongside power plants, meaning that if a missile takes out a power source, the water supply is instantly crippled. Unfortunately, replacement parts for these facilities are not easily procured or repaired, potentially leading to prolonged water shortages.
The situation worsens when considering food security. With 70% of food imports for the Gulf Cooperation Council nations passing through the Strait of Hormuz, any escalation could lead not only to water shortages but also to food isolation as trade routes become jeopardized.
Iran’s Own Water Crisis
Ironically, while Iran threatens others’ water supplies, it is grappling with its own severe water shortages. Known as “water bankruptcy,” Iran faces a crisis brought on by decades of mismanagement and misallocation of water resources. Iran’s aggressive agricultural policies have depleted its aquifers, leading President Masoud Pezeshkian to suggest the country may need to relocate its capital due to water scarcity.
The Social Impact
The repercussions of water shortages are already evident in Iran, where pollution and inadequate water supply have sparked protests under the rallying cry of “We are thirsty.” The crisis has also led to the phenomenon of land subsidence, and it is further complicated by external factors, such as the Taliban controlling key water sources.
Conclusion: The Battle Beyond Oil
The situation highlights a critical paradox—while the world may view oil as the essential commodity, in times of conflict, water becomes the ultimate weapon. Historical precedents loom large; during the Gulf War, Iraq contaminated Kuwaiti water supplies to hinder enemy operations.
As the U.S. and its allies navigate this complex geopolitical landscape, it is evident that if conflict between the U.S. and Iran escalates, the real battles may revolve around vital resources—not oil barrels, but water drops. The future of warfare may not be measured in oil spills, but in water shortages and their devastating humanitarian consequences.