His next mission this year is to redirect an asteroid.

We may not finally need Bruce Willis, but  Armageddon  is no longer just a film; it reflects our escalating concerns over  asteroid impacts . Recently, the United States made history by successfully diverting an asteroid for the first time, paving the way for more elaborate planetary defense missions. In a remarkable development,  China  is gearing up to launch its own planetary defense mission this year, equipped with a unique advantage: a second probe designed to  record everything live .

A Little Context

The foundational strides toward asteroid deflection were established back in 2013 when NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) initiated the  AIDA program . This ambitious venture sought to demonstrate a method of diverting an asteroid in close proximity to Earth. As part of this plan, NASA’s  Dart  spacecraft was to crash into a small asteroid named  Dimorfo , while the AIM orbiter developed by ESA would monitor the event in real time, measuring the effects of the impact.

However, ESA ultimately abandoned the AIM project due to a lack of  financial support  from Member States. Fortunately, NASA pressed forward with the Dart mission, achieving success on September 26, 2022, when the asteroid was successfully diverted, witnessed only by a small Italian Cubesat named  Lyciacube . ESA’s Hera mission, the spiritual successor to AIM, plans to gather additional data upon its arrival at Dimorfo in December 2026—four years post-impact.

Now It’s China’s Turn

Though the collaboration between NASA and ESA did not materialize as anticipated, China has stepped up with its version of  AIDA . Currently dubbed the “ Experimental Test of the Asteroid Defense System ,” this initiative is nearing reality and might soon have a more compelling title.

According to  Wu Weiren , a prominent designer of essential missions within the Chinese space program, the launch is scheduled for this year on a  CZ-3B rocket . Should it succeed, this mission will position China as only the second nation in history to deliberately target an asteroid for orbital modification, accompanied by a second probe equipped with sensors to capture the live impact.

Two Ships Instead of One

Distinct from NASA’s single probe mission, China’s plan incorporates two spacecraft: an  impactor  and an  observer . The target asteroid, known as  2020 PN1 , resides in a  horseshoe orbit  millions of kilometers away from Earth.

As outlined by Wu Weiren, the observer spacecraft will first gather detailed physical data about the asteroid. Shortly thereafter, the impactor will slam into the asteroid at high velocity, under observation from the probe as well as a  network of telescopes  both on Earth and in space. The mission’s objective is to calculate changes in orbit, morphology, and debris ejected from the impact, aiming for an orbital deviation of between  3 to 5 centimeters —a more modest target compared to Dart’s goals.

Tackling the Challenges

The journey to reach the asteroid poses immense challenges. The spacecraft must adjust its course over months to strike an object measuring just a few hundred meters in diameter, all while operating within a minimal margin of error. Complicating matters further is the uncertainty surrounding the asteroid’s composition; impacting a solid rock differs drastically from colliding with loose rubble.

The challenge is substantial. As noted in *Global Times*, it’s akin to “hitting a fly from tens of millions of kilometers away.” Yet, NASA validated that it is achievable, and now China has the chance to demonstrate that humanity can defend against one of the gravest existential threats: potential asteroid impacts.

A Long-Term Vision

This mission marks just the beginning of China’s comprehensive strategy to develop a  detection and defense system  against asteroids. The country has already established a terrestrial surveillance network, featuring the  Purple Mountain Observatory  and the  China Compound Eye  project, which utilizes high-precision radar technologies to monitor asteroids from millions of kilometers away.

The ambitious plan aims to complement this ground infrastructure with a  fleet of observation satellites  in space, solidifying a catalog of options to navigate future asteroid threats. This initiative is grounded in current reality, as evidenced by China’s recent moves in planetary defense—such as opening recruitment for specialized experts in astrophysics and international collaboration to form a dedicated planetary defense force.

Demonstrating Space Muscle

China’s upcoming mission unfolds amidst its rapidly advancing space program, which contrasts starkly with NASA’s budget cuts. China’s expertise in deep space missions is growing, marked by its recent successes, such as returning samples from the Moon’s  far side .

In May, China launched the  Tianwen-2  probe, aimed at collecting samples from the quasi-satellite  Kamo’oalewa , which is believed to be a fragment of the Moon. The expected arrival of these samples on Earth is set for  2027 . Subsequently, Tianwen-2 will continue its journey toward a main belt comet, marking an unprecedented mission for the country.

As the urgency surrounding asteroid monitoring escalates, the world increasingly acknowledges the need for robust planetary defense mechanisms. The intricate web of international cooperation and technology development is stirring hope for a future where humanity stands ready to tackle cosmic challenges.