HAS The end of the 2013 conclave, the Italian episcopal conference committed the most resounding misstep in the history of press services. After the appearance of white smoke, while the world was waiting for theHabemus Papam And the name of the new sovereign pontiff, she sent a message of congratulations to Cardinal Angelo Scola, convinced that of such a brief conclave could only come out of the race. In reality, as everyone knows, the new pope was not the Archbishop of Milan, but that of Buenos Aires, whose candidacy had been carefully kept secret during the entire preparation of the conclave.
In 2025, no one made this error. But there are few who, at the sight of white smoke rising above the Sistine Chapel, thought of Robert Francis Prevost. This Augustinian brother promoted to prefect in the Roman curia had against him this tacit rule which, throughout the XXe century, had prohibited the election of an American pope.
There was, on the other hand, a very plausible and without risk name for the succession of François: Pietro Parolin, right arm of the Argentine Pope and first victim of his excesses, to the point that, according to Roman rumors, he would have offered him more than once to resign. Competent, prudent, diplomat, Pietro Parolin was therefore favorite, as was in his time Angelo Scola, even if those who know him claim that if he was willing to accept the pontifical tiara, he would never have fought to obtain it.
The favor of François
But, unlike Angelo Scola, Pietro Parolin is not necessarily the loser of the race. Because in a conclave which ends in the fourth ballot, there is bound to be a decisive fact or a clever maneuver.
At the last conclave having ended in the fourth round [en 2005]we know what happened: in the third round, Jorge Mario Bergoglio had collected a third of voice and could have blocked Joseph Ratzinger; But Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini cut the grass under the foot of his Jesuit colleague and brought to Joseph Ratzinger the handful of voice that was missing to become Pope Benoît XVI.
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