The lesson is as old as the history of war: Never trust mercenaries. Despite all his historical interpretations, it may appear that Vladimir Putin has forgotten or overlooked this all-important knowledge. Mercenaries can be effective weapons on the battlefield, but if things go wrong, they can turn on you. The drama of what we witnessed today in Russia can hardly be exaggerated. Thousands of highly trained Russian mercenaries left the front line in Ukraine and headed for Russia’s capital Moscow, while their leader harshly criticized the country’s leadership. It’s almost like you have to stop, take a break from the dramatic updates and let it sink in. Rebellion against Putin’s power The Russian president threw everything in during his televised speech on Saturday morning. He understood the seriousness and warned of the threat of civil war. This was not just a revolt against his military leaders, it was a revolt against Putin’s power, and through it the central power that holds the entire mighty Russian Empire together. NOT SO GOOD FRIENDS: Yevgeny Prigozhin has been a close ally of Vladimir Putin for a number of years, but after this Saturday things look very different. Photo: AP The Wagner Group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has in recent weeks expressed harsher and harsher criticism of the Russian leadership. There has not only been criticism of the way the war in Ukraine has been conducted, it has gone even deeper. In sometimes crude language, he has challenged the way the war has been justified, its very ideological basis. The criticism has mainly been aimed at the top management of the Russian defense, not Putin directly, but this looked more and more like a coup attempt aimed at the entire regime. Two important questions There are two questions that will be important for how the situation develops further. One is whether Prigozhin had any degree of support in the Russian state apparatus and the elite when he made the decision to send soldiers against Moscow. Was this a well-prepared coup attempt with ramifications deep behind the Kremlin walls, or a pure challenge from the outside, a spontaneous and poorly thought-out move? If he has support, we may be faced with major changes in the time to come. If he does not, Prigozhin’s position is more vulnerable. One does not challenge power in Moscow with weapons in hand with impunity. The Wagner commander’s order to the soldiers to stop the march towards the capital on Saturday, reportedly came after talks with the President of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko. We do not yet know what else lies in the agreement the two have entered into. DRAMATIC DAY: A tank with a Wagner flag in Rostov-na-Donu on June 24, a dramatic day in recent Russian history. Photo: AP The second central question going forward is how ordinary Russians and the country’s rank-and-file soldiers and lower officers perceive what has happened. Do they still have confidence that President Putin can safeguard their security and ensure the country’s stability? The cause of Putin’s problems In the time to come, we will perhaps get an answer to where Russian loyalty lies. It is difficult to say for sure how much most Russians actually know about the war in Ukraine, and what they really think about the way Putin governs Russia. Although the Wagner group’s advance stopped before it reached Moscow, and Prigozhin’s soldiers returned to their bases, Putin remains a weakened leader. Never in his more than twenty years as Russian head of state has he been challenged in this way. The cause of his problems is the great war he himself initiated against his neighboring country Ukraine. This text has been changed after publication, as a result of the news that the advance of the Wagner soldiers towards Moscow has stopped.
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Destiny Day in Russia – Speech
