The year 2025 has emerged as one of the most devastating spans in recent history for Spain and Portugal , primarily due to rampant forest fires . A new study reveals that these fires were not just the result of human negligence or intention but were significantly exacerbated by the climatic crisis . The analysis indicates that climate change has multiplied the probability of extreme weather conditions leading to wildfires by a staggering 40% .
Exacerbated Conditions. The same study highlights that the intensity of these wildfires is now approximately 30% higher than what would have been recorded in a world unaffected by global warming. It is crucial to emphasize that while climate change does not directly cause wildfires, it certainly escalates their destructive potential by making conditions conducive to uncontrollable fires more likely.
Alarming Statistics. According to a report from the World Weather Attribution network, the situation is dire. As of September 1 , nearly 380,000 hectares in Spain and 260,000 hectares in Portugal have succumbed to flames, culminating in a total devastation of around 640,000 hectares . This area is four times larger than that of London and represents nearly 1% of the Iberian Peninsula’s total surface.
<img alt="The temperature that your city will have in 2080, simulated in this disturbing interactive map" width="375" height="142" src="https://i.blogs.es/c8dd63/captura-de-pantalla-2024-07-12-a-las-19.51.46/375_142.jpeg"/>Historically speaking, 2025 will mark Spain’s fifth highest rate of burned land since records began in 1961 . On a European scale, this year has turned out to be the worst since the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) began recording data in 2006 , with more than one million hectares burned—two-thirds of which are attributed to Spain and Portugal.
Research Astonishment. “The scale of these fires has been astonishing,” says Clair Barnes , a scientist at Imperial College, London , and a co-author of the study. “Warmer, drier, and more flammable conditions are becoming increasingly severe due to climate change, giving rise to fires of unprecedented intensity.”
The alarming nature of this situation is corroborated by their findings: extreme fire risk conditions are predicted to occur every 15 years in the current climate, whereas they would have only happened once every 500 years in pre-industrial times.
An Explosive Cocktail of Factors. These megafires can be attributed to an unprecedented combination of climatic conditions. Notably, a heatwave spanning 16 days (from August 3 to 18 ) led to heightened fire risks. This heatwave was not only the longest on record but also the most intense, with temperatures soaring 4.6°C above pre-industrial averages.
Furthermore, the impact of climate change magnifies the risks associated with such heat events. The analysis indicates that a heatwave as severe as the recent one is now expected to happen approximately every 13 years , a stark contrast to historical occurrences, which were fragmented across 2,500 years .
Beyond Weather. While climate change is the foremost factor, it is not the only concern. Scientists have pointed to rural depopulation and an aging population in both Spain and Portugal as additional contributors. These factors have left vast stretches of forest untamed and unmanaged, allowing dry vegetation to accumulate, which serves as ample fuel for fires. Traditional practices such as extensive grazing, which historically kept vegetation in check, have sharply declined.
David García , an applied mathematician at the University of Alicante and also a co-author of the study, highlights a prevalent issue in public debate. He notes that while rural activity decline garners significant attention, the role of climate change in driving these fires has been inadequately discussed.
Compounding the issue, human activity accounts for about 90% of the fires whose causes are identified, either through negligence or intention. With extreme weather conditions and an accumulation of combustible materials, minor human actions can lead to catastrophic outcomes.
The Underlying Science. The insights presented by the research team stem from analyzing weather conditions conducive to fires via the daily severity index (DSR) , derived from the Canada Fire Meteorological Index (FWI) . This index takes into account long-term data on rainfall, temperature, humidity, and wind, calculating the probability and severity of fires.
<img alt="The problem of climate change is becoming so great that humans can no longer cover their analysis" width="375" height="142" src="https://i.blogs.es/8d6148/tormenta/375_142.jpeg"/>By comparing observed meteorological data from current climate conditions against a hypothetical scenario without warming, researchers were able to isolate and quantify the “footprint” of climate change on extreme events.
The Conclusion is clear. The climatic crisis is pushing ecosystems and our capacity for response to the brink. Spain has unprecedentedly activated the EU Civil Protection mechanism for assistance in combatting these forest fires, and there are already discussions about implementing new regulations aimed at preparing for the looming challenges that our countries face.
Images | Ume (x) Matt Palmer
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