The two rivals have already delivered three wars since the 1947 score and the creation of Pakistan. But, this time, the tension between the two nuclear powers has increased since the terrorist attack perpetrated on April 22, in an atmosphere of exacerbated nationalism. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recalled the determination of India on April 29 “To bring a fatal blow to terrorism” cross -border.
In 2019, during the last confrontation between the two states, after a suicide attack on an Indian military convoy which had killed 40s, the Indian Air Force had waited twelve days before launching an air raid against bases in Jaish-e-Mohammed in the Balakot region, 50 kilometers from the line of control, where the Islamist group, which had claimed the attack, and training centers. These were the first air incursions so far in Pakistani territory since the 1971 war. For two years, the two enemies had exchanged fire along the control line, until they reached an agreement in February 2021.
Given the current tension level, the 2019 scenario is unlikely to repeat itself. The chief of the Pakistani armies, Asim Munir, in internal difficulty, exceeded on his territory by the attacks of the Pakistani Taliban and Baloutches independence, would have every interest in military conflict to regain credit. In his column for the American magazine Foreign PolicyMichael Kugelman believes that, “With such lively tensions and diplomatic relations in neutral, the chances that each party uses dialogue to defuse the crisis in the near future are practically zero”.
In six years, the two belligerents have considerably strengthened their air capacity. India has acquired burst combat aircraft, equipped with scalp missiles of 400 kilometers of range which will allow it to attack targets without entering enemy territory. Pakistan has acquired Chinese hunters, the J-10CE, to replace the Mirage of Dassault.
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