In recent years, people have gotten the impression that China and Russia have become good friends. According to themselves, they have a “boundless friendship”. Xi and Putin met in 2023 at the latest. Then they confirmed the friendship the two countries have developed. Photo: Reuters But are they as good friends as they seem? Or is something simmering underneath? Leaked documents show that between 2008 and 2014, Russia trained to nuke a potential Chinese invasion force. Recently, The Financial Times was able to uncover 29 leaked documents from the Russian defense. The documents show that Russian soldiers were trained to use tactical nuclear weapons against China if they invade Russia in the east. Russia envisioned a scenario where China, through paid protesters and infiltrators, created large demonstrations and conflict in eastern Russia, and then sent in an invasion force to stop the “genocide.” In such a scenario, Russian forces would use tactical nuclear weapons against them. Russia resorts to tactical nuclear weapons quite quickly if conventional warfare fails, leaked documents show. Photo: AFP Tactical nuclear weapons are smaller nuclear weapons designed for use on the battlefield. These weapons are less than strategic nuclear weapons. Russia has around 2,000 such tactical nuclear weapons. The documents revealed that the Russians’ threshold for using nuclear weapons is lower than experts previously thought. Controversial border – I am not surprised that they are “wargaming” an invasion from China, says Ilaria Carozza at PRIO. The peace researcher believes that China and Russia are not natural friends. Photo: PRIO – Russia and China share a long border, and they have not always been friends, she says. It is therefore natural that they prepare for the worst possible scenario. The border between the two countries is controversial. It is the 6th longest border in the world, and one of the world’s most unclear. Russia and China have the world’s 6th longest border. Photo: ALEXANDER SLOTTEN/GOOGLE EARTH / news/GOOGLE Russian President Vladimir Putin uses a narrative that it is okay for great powers to take back their historic lands by force in connection with the invasion of Ukraine. But parts of Russia used to belong to China. These are areas sparsely populated by Russians, with enormous natural resources. Almost 100 million Chinese live in the area just over the border. – Putin hopes that Chinese President Xi Jinping will continue Russia’s intentions in Ukraine, without Xi himself using the same logic towards areas in eastern Russia. This is what Alexander Etkind, professor of international relations at the European University Institute, writes in the book Russia Against Modernity. In the book, he argues that if China is a rational actor, they would rather try to take areas from Russia than try to invade Taiwan. Illustration: ALEXANDER SLOTTEN / news Russia has moved many of its forces away from the border with China and into Ukraine. Thus, the eastern areas of Russia are almost unguarded. Chinese nationalists want to invade Russia Chinese nationalists in social media are constantly making noise about this border. They mimic Russia’s rhetoric to justify why these historically Chinese lands in Russia really belong to them. Messages that encourage this are censored by the Chinese authorities. Famous Chinese TV host Zhou Libo was banned from Weibo after suggesting that China must take back the lands that now belong to Russia. This is the post Zhou was banned from Chinese social media for. Photo: Screenshot He posted the message in connection with Xi visiting Russia. – This discussion arises among Chinese nationalists at regular intervals. Rebekka Åsnes Sagild tells this. She is a senior researcher at the Department of Defense Studies in the Norwegian Armed Forces. Sagild does not think there is any chance of a conflict breaking out between Russia and China. Photo: The Norwegian Defense Forces – Some extreme nationalists regularly discuss that border. This is not the first time there has been a discussion on social media in China, she explains. – But it is quite “fringe”. It is turned down, she explains. – It is on the outer edges. She doesn’t think they can put any pressure on President Xi. And she also does not think there is any likelihood of China attacking Russia. Paranoia for the Far East – It is zero percent likely that China will attack Russia in any way. The fact that Russia has nuclear weapons should put an end to that discussion, she says. Russia has 5,889 nuclear weapons. China currently has 500, but they have a plan to have 1,000 in place by 2030, according to Reuters. Photo: AP – The furthest one can go is that these exercises tell us that there is a paranoia in Russia linked to the Far East. It has been like this for a long time, she explains. – That part of Russia only has about eight million people over a huge area, but on the other side of the border there are over 100 million Chinese. But she also points to the extensive trade between the two countries. – They are not interested in destroying that relationship now, she asserts. Uneven power relations – China and Russia are not natural friends. This is a marriage of convenience, says Carozza at PRIO. – China and Russia share some values, mainly a common contempt for the West. And they both have a desire to change the world order in their favor. And they are both standard bearers for autocratic governance, centralized power and nationalism. – But there has been historical opposition between the two, and they compete in some spheres of interest, for example Central Asia, she says. Russia is weakened and China is more powerful than ever. Illustration: ALEXANDER SLOTTEN / news The exercises the documents reveal are from 2008 to 2014. China has not commented on the leak, and Russia claims it is false. Since 2014, Russia has been significantly weakened militarily and China’s power has continued to grow. – The relationship between the two countries has never been more lopsided than it is now, says Carozza. Russia has destroyed large parts of its military in Ukraine, and the sanctions from the West have made them completely dependent on China to sell the raw materials on which their economy is based. – Because of its dependence on China, Russia risks becoming an economic colony of the country, said CIA chief William Burns in a speech last year. – Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on China, and to some extent the country risks becoming an economic colony of China over time, depending on the country for the export of energy resources and raw materials, Burns said at the time. Etkin also refers to Russia as an unofficial Chinese colony. Putin and Xi are friends. They have met 43 times, and refer to each other as “close friends” and “old friends”. Xi and Putin are good friends. Photo: AP Carozza believes Russia and China will continue to be friends as long as Xi and Putin rule their respective countries. She points out that both presidents have recently secured their power and will in all likelihood remain in office for as long as possible.
ttn-69
