The International Energy Agency (IEA) today presented “an updated road map” to the sensational report they presented two years ago. In an official statement, the head of the agency, Fatih Birol, says that “the road to 1.5 degrees has narrowed in the last two years, but that clean energy technologies keep the road open”. In 2021, the IEA concluded that there is no room for new investments in oil and gas if the world still wants to keep the 1.5 degree target alive. Two years later, the energy agency is not as categorical, and opens up for “some investments” in oil and gas during a transition period. The background is the danger of continuing high prices for fossil energy if the change is pushed forward too quickly. “The right sequence of investments in reindeer and fossil energy is central to avoid devastating price jumps or oversupply,” the road map states. Norway’s greenhouse gas emissions and climate targets measured in million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents60 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents? Click for explanation of CO₂ equivalents. Norway’s climate target 23.1 million tonnes annually Go to news’s Climate Status What is Norway’s climate target? By 2030, Norway must cut at least 55 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels. The goal is to be achieved in cooperation with the EU. By 2050, 90-95 per cent of Norwegian emissions must be cut. This means that we must cut emissions at record speed. In the last ten years we have managed to cut around 5 million tonnes, in the next ten we will cut around 25 million tonnes. How will Norway reach the climate target? Norway must cut emissions in two ways, because the sources of emissions can be divided into two: Emissions subject to a quota: This are particularly emissions from industry and the oil/gas platforms. The emissions are covered by the EU’s quota system: In order to emit greenhouse gases, the industry must buy permits (quotas) in the EU at the price determined by the quota market. Steadily higher prices and fewer quotas will force emissions cuts where it is easiest to implement. Non-quota-obligatory emissions: These are greenhouse gas emissions from, among other things, transport, agriculture, waste and heating in buildings. This is called the non-quota-obligatory sector because you do not need quotas to release greenhouse gases. How Norway can cut emissions in this sector is described in the specialist report “Climate cure 2030”. The politicians decide which of the measures from the report are to be implemented. Norway can also cut non-quota-obligatory emissions by paying for emission cuts in other European countries. The government says that it plans to meet the targets without using this option, but it can be used if it becomes “strictly necessary”. For Norway, the emissions in the two sectors are roughly the same: in 2019, they released around 25 million tonnes of greenhouse gases each .What happens if Norway does not reach the climate target? It could be politically embarrassing. A likely solution is that Norway chooses to pay for emission cuts in other countries. Norway can also be subject to sanctions if we do not reach the targets we have agreed with the EU. Norway must regularly report cuts to the UN, in line with the targets set in the Paris Agreement. Here, no sanctions are stipulated for those who do not fulfill their obligations. Positive signs for the renewable energy capacity The report assumes that the demand for oil and gas will reach its peak this decade, and that the demand for fossil energy will be a fifth of the current level in 2050. Although the energy agency acknowledges that the war in Ukraine has been the start of “a global energy crisis” and that the road to the Paris goal is “narrower”, the report is also full of optimism. In a separate Renewable Energy Market report, the energy agency writes that they expect renewable energy capacity in the world to increase by 440 GW in 2023. That is 24 percent more than they thought at the start of 2023. – The IEA is clear that throttling the supply energy before the alternative is in place will be unfortunate, says chief economist at Offshore Norway, Marius Menth Andersen. He adds: – Therefore, there will be a need for oil and gas in the years to come, and it must be the oil and gas that can be delivered with the lowest emissions and at the lowest price that will and should be consumed. Norwegian resources are in a special position here. Zero: – We risk being stuck with oil and gas that nobody wants Sigrun Aasland, Zero – The report illustrates that we have a scary situation in Norway. The rest of the world is at full speed into green energy. We have our feet glued to the ground with oil. There is a big difference between “some investments in a transition period” and the record high level of investment triggered by the Norwegian oil tax package. There is also a big difference between supplying gas to Europe now, and “developing, not dismantling” the Norwegian petroleum sector. At the same time that we here at home use enormous human and financial resources to search for oil and gas in Norway, we invest almost nothing in renewable energy. I am worried about the Norwegian economy. We risk being stuck with oil and gas that nobody wants, while at the same time delaying the green shift in Norway. The head of the IEA, Faith Birol, warned Norway last year that the easy job was done, and that it was now the “complex, challenging and expensive” measures that remained. Photo: Benoit Tessier / Reuters The new report is in line with what the IEA chief stated when he assessed Norwegian energy policy last year in light of the Ukraine war and the European “craving” for Norwegian gas. – The world needs oil and gas, also in the future. The goal of net zero emissions is not synonymous with zero oil and gas, he said. According to Dagens Næringsliv, he added: – Then it is better for oil and gas to come from countries with a low carbon footprint, such as Norway. Equinor: – We must continue to invest in oil to supply the energy the world needs Gisle L. Johannessen, Equinor – We will take a closer look at the IEA’s updated report, but recognize ourselves in the headlines. The energy transition must go faster if we are to reach the climate targets, while at the same time energy security must be safeguarded. The world must increase its investments in renewable energy and low-carbon solutions, while at the same time we must continue to invest in oil and gas to supply the energy the world needs at a reasonable price. These are also our priorities. – The pace of the energy transition must pick up WWF Secretary General Karoline Andaur characterizes the report as a marching order to change the petroleum industry on the Norwegian continental shelf. She points out that the updated road map adjusts down the demand for gas in 2030 by 20 percent, and that this is “significantly lower” than what the IEA estimated in 2021. – Even though the IEA allows for already approved oil and gas fields to be developed for to curb price growth and avoid undersupply in the short term, they are clear that there is no room for new oil and gas exploration. The oil nation Norway should take that to heart, she says. She adds: – The pace of the energy transition must pick up. The rich countries have both resources, expertise and technology, and good opportunities for large-scale development of renewable energy, but then the investments must be shifted. These are the goals of the Paris Agreement Under the Paris Agreement from 2015, the world’s nations have committed to cutting emissions and thereby limiting global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees, and preferably 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times. Global warming was 1.14 degrees on average between 2013 and 2022, so there is not much wiggle room left. If we are to reach the final target of 1.5 degrees, we must cut global greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent compared to 2019, when we released a total of 55 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalents. The climate gases we must cut are mainly CO₂, but also, for example, methane (CH4), which is a common product of agriculture. But instead of declining, global emissions appear to have remained stable or increased in recent years. In 2022, we released 58 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalents, more than ever before. The Paris Agreement’s goal is for this increase to stop before 2025. Sources: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Research article: Indicators for climate change in 2022 (Earth System Science Data, Copernicus), Tracking emissions by country and sector (Brookings, November 2022). – In the report, the IEA points out that starting up new oil and gas fields cannot contribute to energy security in the short term, and can make transition more difficult in the long term. It goes against the rhetoric of the government when they base an expansive oil policy on the ongoing energy crisis, says Secretary General of the WWF, Karoline Andaur. Photo: Haakon Nordvik – The government must advocate for a full exploration freeze The Global Stocktake report for the UN Climate Convention concluded earlier in September that we are far from reaching the 1.5 degree target, and during the UN General Assembly António Guterres stated that our dependence on fossil energy has opened the gates of hell. – I hope the government and the Supreme Court listen to what the IEA actually says. There is no room for new oil exploration. It should have major consequences for Norwegian exploration policy, says Lars Haltbrekken (SV). Arild Hermstad, head of MDG, calls the report “a big warning for Norwegian politicians and the oil industry”. – What the government must do now is to go in for a full exploration freeze and create a clear plan for how we are going to transition away from our oil economy, he says. This year’s climate summit will be organized by the United Arab Emirates between 30 November and 12 December.
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