Inflation Projections for June and July 2026 by BCRA
The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) has released its latest Market Expectations Survey (REM), indicating a steady inflation forecast of 2% for both June and July 2026. This projection is part of a broader annual inflation expectation of 30%, reflecting the current economic landscape.
Monthly Inflation Insights
The REM participants, comprised of various consultants and banks, predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will remain at 2% for the second consecutive month. This figure is a slight decrease from previous assessments but shows a general consensus among experts. Notably, the “Top 10” analysts, recognized for their historical accuracy, project a slightly lower inflation rate of 1.9%—a reduction of two-tenths from earlier estimates.
Future Trends in Inflation Rates
Looking ahead, experts believe that monthly inflation will dip below the 2% mark starting in August 2026, projecting a median expectation of 1.8% for both August and September. This downward trend is anticipated to continue, with forecasts of 1.7% for October and November. A slight increase to 1.8% is expected in December, suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook as the year progresses.
Core Inflation Dynamics
Core inflation, which excludes seasonal and regulated price fluctuations, is projected at 1.9% for June, aligning with expectations from expert analysts. This data affirms a broader agreement on the overall downward trajectory of inflation rates as the market stabilizes.
Exchange Rate Projections
In tandem with inflation forecasts, the REM also analyses the nominal exchange rate, indicating a median projection of $1,482 per U.S. dollar by the end of July 2026. This reflects a modest increase of $35 compared to the previous survey. By December 2026, the expected exchange rate is anticipated to reach $1,673 per dollar, marking a 15.5% interannual variation when compared with values from December 2025.
Conclusion
The latest BCRA survey reinforces a collaborative sentiment from economic analysts regarding inflation trends. The projections indicate a steady yet cautious approach toward managing inflation and exchange rates, with parameters set for gradual improvement. As always, continuous monitoring of market dynamics will be essential to navigate these anticipated changes effectively.
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