Initial Poll Results for Castilla y León Elections 2026
The latest polls from The World/SigmaTwo indicate that the Popular Party (PP) is set to win the elections in Castilla y León on March 15, 2026. If these predictions hold true, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco will retain his position as president of the Board, securing between 30-32 representatives. This result mirrors his performance from the 2022 elections, although it falls short of an outright governing majority.
Shifting Political Landscape
The Socialists’ Party (PSOE) is projected to assume the second position, represented by Carlos Martínez, with expected results of 25-27 representatives. This marks a decline in their numbers as they obtained 28 seats in the previous election cycle.
Vox is showing significant electoral gains, positioning itself as the third-largest party in this election. With projections of 17-19 representatives, Vox has increased its presence significantly from 13 deputies previously.
Regional Parties and Emerging Alliances
Among regionalist parties, the Union of the Leonese People (UPL) is forecasted to gain 3-4 representatives, while Soria Ya is expected to secure 2 seats and By Avila will likely obtain just 1 representative. A notable surprise may emerge from the United Left-Sumar-Equo coalition, which could potentially gain a foothold in the Cortes of Castilla y León with at least one seat.
Electoral Context
This electoral process is part of a broader electoral calendar, following recent elections in Extremadura and Aragón. Approximately 1,917,546 Castilian and Leonese voters are eligible to cast their votes, including an additional 180,222 residents abroad. This marks a 12.5% increase in the number of registered voters compared to the prior regional elections.
As the political landscape in Castilla y León continues to evolve, these preliminary polls will set the stage for fierce electoral competition leading up to the vote on March 15, 2026.
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