One of the quietest and most decisive technological competitions on the planet is taking place beneath the surface of the oceans. Nuclear submarines can remain submerged for months, travel halfway around the world undetected, and launch missiles from thousands of miles away. Therefore, each new advance under the sea usually anticipates much greater changes in the global strategic balance.
Washington’s Alarm
While much of international attention is focused on the immediate conflicts in the Middle East, another, much deeper strategic concern is beginning to take shape in Washington. The US Navy commanders have warned Congress that the military balance under the sea is changing rapidly. Specifically, China is accelerating its transformation into a formidable nuclear power, which could significantly alter the global nuclear deterrent landscape in the coming decades.
The Underwater Race
China already boasts one of the largest submarine fleets globally, and its rapid expansion is fueled by massive investments in military shipyards. Production has surged from less than one nuclear submarine per year to significantly faster rates. Experts estimate the Chinese fleet could reach around 70 nuclear submarines by the end of this decade, with projections of about 80 by 2035.
Though the United States still retains a technological and operational edge in submarine warfare, the brisk growth of Chinese naval capabilities compels Washington to reevaluate the strategic balance in the Pacific.
The Transition to a Nuclear Fleet
One of the most important structural changes in this underwater race has been China’s shift from a diesel-electric submarine fleet, which comprises less costly vessels that require frequent surfacing, to a more advanced nuclear fleet. These nuclear submarines can remain submerged for extended periods, allowing the Chinese Navy to project power far beyond its immediate waters and complicate US naval operations across the Pacific and beyond.
The New Submarines
The technological leap is anticipated to come with new generations of submarines entering service by the late 2020s. Notably, the Type 095 and Type 096 models are designed for advanced operations, capable of transporting long-range nuclear ballistic missiles. Equipped with JL-4 missiles, these submarines could effectively target large areas of the US territory while operating from the relatively protected waters near China.
A Network to Protect the Nuclear Deterrent
China’s ambitions extend beyond just building submarines. Military analysts suggest that Beijing is developing an extensive sensor network on the seabed, incorporating surveillance cables, buoy systems linked to satellites, and unmanned underwater vehicles to monitor activities in the vicinity.
This system, often referred to as China’s “underwater Great Wall,” may enable the nation to track foreign submarines, safeguard its own nuclear fleet, and patrol in waters that provide greater security against potential threats.
The Strategic Horizon of 2025 and 2040
The ramifications of these developments are expected to materialize within the next decade. As China’s nuclear submarine numbers increase and its underwater sensor systems are deployed, the nation could expand its naval presence beyond the initial chain of western Pacific islands.
According to US forecasts, by around 2040, Chinese submarines might operate more frequently not only in the Indian Ocean and the Arctic but also in the Atlantic. If these predictions come to fruition, the global naval balance could enter a new phase characterized by an intense submarine competition between the two largest powers on Earth.
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