In the course of four days, seven Russian citizens have been arrested by Norwegian police. Remand. The police have confiscated drones, memory cards, photographic equipment and image material. Is it a threat to the security of the kingdom? Are there tourists with little more than a selfie stick to capture holiday memories? Could it be a combination? The Norwegian authorities are on their toes. It is easy to understand. Norwegian vigilance has increased several notches after what is described as sabotage on the gas pipeline outside Bornholm. The fear is that Norwegian gas pipelines, land plants and other critical infrastructure are also threatened. We do not know if this activity has increased, or if the observations are increasing because we are more vigilant. The attack on the gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea has heightened Norwegian vigilance. Photo: Danish Defense / NTB The D-word Russia has long been known for hybrid warfare. Hybrid threats have been mentioned in Norwegian threat assessments for a number of years. It is frighteningly precise to sit today in 2022 and read how the Russian Crimea operation in 2014 is highlighted in a public investigation in 2016 on hybrid warfare: “Russia used a wide range of methods in Ukraine to supplement conventional military means, including destabilization through agents and propaganda, information warfare, cyber attacks and a dramatic increase in the price of gas.” Hybrid warfare makes the distinction between peace, conflict and war fluid and indistinct. That is the purpose and the effect. It’s not about rolling tanks or bombs and air raid alarms where the distinction between war and peace can be attached to film. The drone flight can be filming in the gray area. Hybrid warfare and destabilization are characterized by the fact that it is difficult to warn and prepare for the person who is attacked. The attacker can plan over a long period of time and coordinate many different means: usually military operations, cyber attacks, use of information and influence, economic means and the orchestration of riots. It is particularly military, diplomatic, economic and energy-related channels that are the target. Putin’s conventional war of aggression in Ukraine appears unsuccessful on the ground. Putin’s hybrid warfare against the West has, if nothing else, shown what destabilization can be in practice. It is a comprehensive toolbox. Putin’s Russia has carried out extensive computer attacks, including against the Storting. The destabilization of large parts of Europe’s gas supply and energy prices has been precise and effective. It cannot be ruled out that Russia is behind the attack on the gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea. It cannot be ruled out that there are connections to Russian authorities that caused the famous dance video with the Prime Minister of Finland to be leaked. The aim is not gas pipelines, scandal reports or taking pictures of important infrastructure. The purpose is to put us out of the game. Spreading fear, uncertainty and insecurity that causes us to act differently. Destabilization works. It spreads fear. It causes rational actors to change patterns of action. You have power over someone if you make them do something they would not otherwise do. If it is correct to see this in context, the drones over the North Sea, the activity in the Baltic Sea, the gas deliveries and information warfare could be hybrid warfare set into a system. War is so much It was simpler a very long time ago. When war was a big battle. Man against man, weapon in hand on horseback. Before the war international law. In a far from as complex world as now. Then the war moved to sea and in the air as well. Now it has moved out into cyberspace, but most importantly: the enemy is not only put out of action by soldiers being killed. Or by violence against civilians. Flying a drone near an oil rig can destabilize, disable, and allow the attacker to gain something. Modern warfare is not equally regulated in treaties and regulations. For example, it is not a given that, if it can be demonstrated that the sabotage against the gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea is hybrid warfare carried out by Russia, then it triggers NATO’s Article Five. The analysis remains that Putin will not draw NATO into the Ukraine war and escalate the military aggression against a united West. Nor does NATO want to draw a clear line on what constitutes a hybrid war. Many believe, or hope, that an uncertainty about when one crosses borders can have a more dampening effect than if one almost makes a list of examples. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Chief of Defense Eirik Kristoffersen on a helicopter tour in connection with the NATO exercise Cold Response 2022 in inner Troms. Photo: Geir Olsen / Geir Olsen Therefore, Norway is a possible replacement The government and our authorities do not call the drone activity a hybrid war. No one has said that Norway is under a hybrid attack. It must be understood in several ways. Firstly, that there is too little concrete, tangible evidence. Secondly, that such a label will increase the level of conflict in our areas. Thirdly, that we have no deterrent measure as a feasible countermeasure. The rehearsed phrases seem to be that “there is a new security policy situation” and that we are and must be prepared that others will use “compound means” against Norway. It’s careful talk. At the same time, it is important not to spread unnecessary fear, but to ask people to be more vigilant. As an open and trust-based society, Norway is a vulnerable country against which to conduct a hybrid war. We trust each other and are not used to “seeing threats in broad daylight”. In addition, we have a direct relationship with Russia and a unique position as a gas supplier to Europe. We are NATO’s eyes and ears in the north. The new security situation requires something from far more than Defense and the Police. Now source criticism on social media is more important. Ordinary people may have to report drone activity to the Police. Total defense means that all emergency services must be able to be mobilized. At the same time, it is about the idea that unimaginable things can happen must come to the forefront of all of us, perhaps in a way that has not been natural in Norway since the Cold War. This is how a defense can also look like.
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