Several experts say it is very likely that Russia is behind the attacks against the Nord Stream pipeline in the Baltic Sea, including Ståle Ulriksen at the Naval Academy. Cecilie Hellestveit is a conflict and international law researcher at the Institute of International Law. She says it is very likely but difficult to prove that Russia is behind it: – When it is not clear who has done it, or who it is aimed at, it is difficult to say that it triggers a right to self-defense or for example NATO’s Article 5. Article 5 of the NATO treaty guarantees that if one of the member states is attacked, the entire alliance will intervene militarily to defend it. Hellestveit believes there are three things you can be reasonably sure of. – It is very likely that a state power is behind it. It is very likely that it has a connection to Ukraine. And it is very likely that the aim of the attack is to influence the attitudes of Western countries, she says. A mural at a facility in Lubmin in Germany shows the route of the Nord Stream pipeline. It passes through many European countries, which have now reacted differently to the attack. Photo: Markus Schreiber / AP Uncertainty and division Hellestveit believes exactly the uncertainty that has arisen after the explosions is the very goal of the attack: – This attack was never about stopping the gas, as there was already little gas in the line. It was about creating uncertainty and division here in Europe. Hellestveit explains that the location of the explosion seems carefully chosen. – This attack took place just outside Danish territorial waters. This means that it is located in the economic zone, between different countries. Map showing where Nord Stream 1 and 2 have leaked. Two of the points are close to both Denmark and Sweden’s economic zone, while the third is in Denmark’s zone. On Tuesday, a fourth leak was also discovered in Sweden’s economic zone. (Source: Marinetraffic and Scigrid) – These are countries that may have slightly different points of view on how to relate to Russia. Some believe that you should have an extremely strict line, while others believe that you should lower the tension level. Thus the attack brings the division to light. Timing Hellestveit says it is difficult to predict whether there will be similar attacks in the near future. – But what we have often seen is that these attacks come at specific times. They are often timed to decisions and political processes to have maximum effect. What is happening these days is that the war in Ukraine is entering a new phase. The researcher believes the attack follows a well-known pattern from another region. – This type of sabotage against petroleum infrastructure is a very common means used in connection with armed conflict. We have seen a lot of that in the Middle East in conflicts such as Syria, Iraq and Yemen. – What is new is that this is happening in Europe. We are not used to this type of threat, and it has made us vulnerable, says Hellestveit.
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– This attack was never about stopping the gas, but about creating division – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
