Donald Trump said on Sunday that the US economy can enter a recession during the year. When the president was asked about the possibility of recession in 2025, Trump replied that he dislikes such things, but that he could not exclude the opportunity. This has led to a further drop in Wall Street. On Monday, the main indices have been red: The technology index Nasdaq has fallen by around 4 percent industry index Dow Jones fell 1.7 percent The wider S&P index is down around 2.6 percent at the same time. Also the stock of Elon Musk’s car manufacturer Tesla plunges – it is down over 15 percent on Monday night. – Subjective signal last week was marked by a lot of unrest on the stock exchange, after the United States introduced penalties against Mexico and Canada. Trump has postponed a number of goods and services to Canada and Mexico, including car manufacturers. But there is still great uncertainty about the tariffs, says the chief strategist Nordea Markets, Erik Bruce. – When Trump then says he does not rule out a recession, it is a sign that he is willing to go a long way with tariff increases. And this is precisely this that causes concern. High customs prices are bad news for US companies and the US economy, says Bruce Erik Bruce is chief analyst at Nordea Markets. Photo: Alf Simensen / Alf Simensen / news – That’s what was disturbing about the signal he sent this weekend. That he may be willing to trigger downturns in the US economy to achieve what he thinks is good in the long term. – Unclear and uncertain when Trump was elected president in November, the stock exchange rose significantly. Although he promised a tougher United States with high customs walls, there have been high expectations for Trump’s trade policy. – I think most people thought that mainly Trump will follow a business -friendly policy, with tax cuts and minor regulations. But so far, there has been most noise and uncertainty about the framework conditions for business. Cuts and mass layouts in the public sector also create concern. Cuts in public spending also negatively affect the economy, says Bruce. What is customs? Customs is a fee that the state adds to goods brought in to or out of the country/customs area. The money from the customs tax goes to the state. When the United States introduces 25 per cent duties on goods from abroad, it means that an item that costs NOK 100 in the export country, in the US costs NOK 125 (disregarded from exchange rates and other fees). When other countries respond with high tariff rates, the US goods become more expensive in these countries. Trump’s goal of the customs wall is to promote American production because US goods will be cheaper for the consumer. Free trade is when goods can be sold across national borders, without this type of price in price. Protectionism is when a country increases customs on goods to stimulate more sales of its own goods, by making imported goods more expensive. A penalty is a tariff rate imposed to protect domestic manufacturers from competition from foreign goods sold at low prices. Penalties are usually higher than regular tariffs. – The economic picture is unclear and uncertain with Trump, perhaps more than you thought. The US Governor Jerome Powell said last week that the US economy was in a good place, but that the Trump administration is in the process of implementing “significant political changes” in fiscal policy, regulation and trade. “The uncertainty surrounding the changes and their probable effects is still high,” Powell said, according to The Guardian. Normally with weaknesses, but although in particular technology stocks have fallen a lot on Monday, Bruce emphasizes that these have been artificially high in the last two years. – There is probably some unrest in the market for these companies to become too expensive, and it has gone too far. He nevertheless encourages stock and fund savers to have ice in his stomach. -It is far from certain that KI companies will do poorly in the future. If you try to sell yourself when things look bad, there is often a recoil you miss. If you have saved a lot in mutual funds, you have to count on sleepers. Published 10.03.2025, at. 19.00 Updated 10.03.2025, at. 21.19
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