{"id":216666,"date":"2026-04-12T08:39:57","date_gmt":"2026-04-12T08:39:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/a-ship-travels-at-bicycle-speed\/"},"modified":"2026-04-12T08:39:59","modified_gmt":"2026-04-12T08:39:59","slug":"a-ship-travels-at-bicycle-speed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/a-ship-travels-at-bicycle-speed\/","title":{"rendered":"A Ship Travels at Bicycle Speed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The war in Iran was expected to disrupt the global economy severely. However, as analyst Max Fisher points out in his recent explanatory video, the reality is less apocalyptic. Instead of a catastrophic landscape reminiscent of Mad Max<\/em>, we face a somewhat battered economy. The catastrophic forecasts were not entirely wrong, but the chaos we anticipated is yet to materialize. This situation presents a kind of “mirage.”<\/p>\n

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The war detonated like a distant explosion; we have seen the flash, but the shockwave has yet to reach us. To understand this delay, we must look to the sea. A supertanker, a massive steel behemoth measuring four football fields in length, carries millions of barrels and weighs more than a skyscraper. Due to its colossal dimensions, it travels at speeds of approximately 10 to 15 knots\u2014around the speed of a bicycle.<\/p>\n

Our global supply lines are moving at the pace of a cycling peloton. When the conflict erupted and the valves in the Persian Gulf were shut off, there was still a huge amount of crude oil silently navigating the oceans towards Europe, Asia, and America. This logistical inertia has created the false sense of stability we experience today.<\/p>\n

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A Monumental Traffic Jam<\/h2>\n

According to Bloomberg<\/em>, there are over 800 vessels stuck in the Gulf, with 70% loaded with crude oil and fuel. If we include freighters and cruise ships, the number climbs to around 2,000, stranding approximately 20,000 sailors for almost a month and a half. This traffic jam underscores the real impact of the situation.<\/p>\n

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A recent investigation by Al Jazeera<\/em> shows that in just 40 days of conflict, 206 million barrels have vanished from the market<\/strong>. To put it into perspective, this is equivalent to filling 103 supertankers, creating a significant ripple effect on oil exports. Iraqi exports have plummeted by 82%, and those from Kuwait and Qatar have fallen by more than 70%.<\/p>\n

So why aren’t we experiencing widespread blackouts in the West? Fisher explains that Western governments, through the International Energy Agency (IEA), have released millions of barrels from their emergency reserves. Coupled with financial speculators betting on a quick resolution, prices have remained artificially low. However, these measures are merely “punctual tricks” that will eventually run out as the final ships from before the conflict reach their destinations.<\/p>\n

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The Ceasefire Deception<\/h2>\n

The announcement of a “two-week ceasefire” has provided a temporary respite for the markets, but reality remains stubborn. The IEA’s director, Fatih Birol, has indicated that the current crisis is “more serious than those of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined.” Analysts concur that it’s insufficient to simply sign a document to restore stability. A recent column in Financial Times<\/em> warns that the world has lost about 600 million barrels of oil. Even if an extra million barrels a day could be produced, it would take almost two years to recover pre-conflict inventories.<\/p>\n

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Adding to the challenge is the physical destruction inflicted during the conflict. Vital infrastructure has been damaged. For instance, Qatar has lost 17% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity, which may take three to five years to repair. Economists term this impending situation “demand destruction.” It means we won’t see a complete disappearance of goods, but rather a significant reduction in their availability. Expect airlines to cancel flights due to skyrocketing fuel prices, a shortage of fertilizers that will increase food costs, and factories forced to halt operations due to expensive raw materials.<\/p>\n

Great Collateral Damage: Debt<\/h2>\n

This crisis extends beyond just fuel prices at the pump. A report from Foreign Affairs<\/em> warns of an invisible global threat: debt. As energy prices soar, inflation is likely to surge, compelling the United States to raise interest rates. This could trigger a wave of defaults in developing countries, reminiscent of the debt crisis of the 1980s.<\/p>\n

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Unlike previous crises, wealthy nations today are also without lifelines. Ruchir Sharma, writing for Financial Times<\/em>, points out that G7 governments now carry debt levels exceeding 100% of their GDP. They have effectively run out of political options to subsidize fuel for their citizens.<\/p>\n

So, why not source oil from elsewhere? As a geologist noted in an interview with The Conversation<\/em>, the Persian Gulf is uniquely endowed with oil and gas, holding half of the world’s oil reserves in just 3% of the earth’s surface. This region is irreplaceable in the short term.<\/p>\n

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The Tehran Toll: A Lesser Evil<\/h3>\n

Amid this deadlock, a controversial yet pragmatic proposal has emerged: Iran could control the Strait and charge a toll of around 2 million dollars per ship. A report from the European think tank Bruegel indicates that while this would violate international law, it would make economic sense, absorbing 85% of the toll costs by Gulf-producing countries. For average consumers in Europe and Asia, this would only translate to a few more cents per barrel\u2014a minor cost compared to a full blockade enriching Russia.<\/p>\n

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The mirage of stability we currently enjoy has an expiration date. Europe and Asia should be strengthening their strategic reserves during these warm months, yet they are depleting them. Fisher warns that when millions turn on their heating in December and January, the true oil crisis will manifest with full force.<\/p>\n

In the long run, there may only be one viable solution: reducing our reliance on oil altogether. This conflict will serve as a wake-up call for global leaders, urging a rapid shift towards electric vehicles and renewable energy. Meanwhile, we will wait, living with the understanding that our hyperconnected, 21st-century economy beats to the rhythm of ships traversing oceans at the speed of a bicycle. When that bicycle comes to a halt, the equilibrium of the world is disrupted.<\/p>\n

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Image | Unsplash<\/a> and Unsplash<\/a><\/p>\n

Xataka | To survive the end of oil, China has resurrected an old German technology from World War II: turning coal into plastic<\/p>\n

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General News – 2<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The war in Iran was expected to disrupt the global economy severely. However, as analyst Max Fisher points out in his recent explanatory video, the reality is less apocalyptic. Instead of a catastrophic landscape reminiscent of Mad Max, we face a somewhat battered economy. The catastrophic forecasts were not entirely wrong, but the chaos we […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":216667,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36399],"tags":[2862,1143,369,1442],"class_list":["post-216666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology","tag-bicycle","tag-ship","tag-speed","tag-travels"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=216666"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216666\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":216668,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216666\/revisions\/216668"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/216667"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=216666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=216666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=216666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}