Lenin famously stated, “It probes with bayonets: if it is soft, it is progressing; if steel is found, it goes back.” This phrase resonates deeply after reading De Carlo Masala’s newly published book, If Russia Wins<\/em>. A professor of strategy at the University of the German Army in Munich, Masala outlines a hypothetical future scenario that defines significant geopolitical shifts for Europe, Russia, and their allies.<\/p>\n The narrative unfolds in 2026<\/strong>, where a controversial truce is formed between Ukraine<\/strong> and Russia<\/strong>. This agreement involves Ukraine conceding nearly a fifth of its territory<\/strong> to Russia, primarily due to the waning military support from the USA<\/strong> and Europe. Although there\u2019s no formal international recognition for the territories Russia has seized, a tacit acceptance allows the situation to stagnate \u2014 reminiscent of historical examples like northern Cyprus<\/strong>, which remains occupied by T\u00fcrkiye<\/strong> since the 1970s<\/strong>. Following the truce, an unexpected development occurs: Putin<\/strong> resigns, paving the way for a reform-minded successor. However, hidden beneath the surface is the new president’s intention to revitalize Russia’s geopolitical strength. <\/p>\n Masala\u2019s scenario intensifies in 2028<\/strong>, revealing Russian paramilitary groups operating in Mali<\/strong> and inducing a mass exodus of locals attempting to reach Europe via precarious boat journeys known as pateras<\/em>. The German<\/strong> government is forced to divert two frigates into the Mediterranean<\/strong> for maritime surveillance, stretching their military resources and undermining their capacity in the Baltic Sea<\/strong>.<\/p>\n At the same time, Russian and Chinese forces challenge the Philippines<\/strong> by deploying troops to the disputed Spratly Islands<\/strong>. In response, the Philippines invokes its military alliance with the USA, compelling the US to reroute two aircraft groups into the Pacific<\/strong> region.<\/p>\n As tensions rise, Russian forces extend their aggression towards Estonia<\/strong>, targeting a predominantly Russian-speaking city and executing an amphibious operation to capture an island in the Baltic Sea<\/strong>. Concurrently, Russia wages a covert “hybrid” war against Europe, executing sabotage operations like the assassination of a German weapons manufacturer and deploying a nuclear-equipped submarine to an uninhabited island contested by Canada<\/strong> and Denmark<\/strong>.<\/p>\n In this climate of aggression, Estonia invokes Article Five of NATO<\/strong>, seeking military support to defend its territory. However, the response from allied nations raises critical questions: Are countries like Italy<\/strong> or Spain<\/strong> prepared to send troops to support their Baltic partner? Would the USA, under the “America First” doctrine, risk nuclear confrontation over a Baltic city?<\/p>\n These discussions will significantly influence NATO’s future and consequently the dynamics outlined in If Russia Wins<\/em>. Masala deftly conveys that defensive responses are not merely war strategies\u2014they send critical geopolitical messages. A failure to curb Russian aggression could embolden China<\/strong>‘s ambitions concerning Taiwan<\/strong>, suggesting that sheer power, rather than legal frameworks, governs international relations.<\/p>\n Intriguingly, Masala’s book skirts over the economic realities in this geopolitical landscape, which are just as crucial. The European Union<\/strong> boasts a GDP ten times that of Russia<\/strong>, with a population three times greater. However, without US military leverage\u2014exemplified by essential resources like military satellites, long-range cruise missiles, and aerial refueling systems\u2014Europe\u2019s ability to mount a robust military response remains hampered.<\/p>\n War isn’t just fought with hardware<\/strong> (weapons, drones) but also relies on software<\/strong>: the collective will to fight. Alarmingly, surveys indicate a declining percentage of Europeans willing to defend not just allies but their own nations in the event of invasion.<\/p>\n In the bleakest hours of World War II<\/strong>, Winston Churchill posited, “The nations that sink fight again, but those that surrender are extinguished.” For Masala, deviating from this ethos likely communicates weakness to authoritarian regimes, eager to exploit fissures in the international order.<\/p>\n Notably, Masala\u2019s work captures an emerging specter in global politics, as articulated by the Marxist thinker Gramsci: “The Old World dies. The new takes to appear. And in that clearing, the monsters arise.” His observations serve as a clarion call to strategists, policymakers, and citizens alike.<\/p>\n Navigating the treacherous waters of contemporary geopolitical challenges requires a decisive approach. If nations grapple with the hybrid warfare<\/strong> tactics employed by Russia, Europe must unify under a renewed commitment to collective defense, backed by a resolute economic framework. Only then can the moral and military dimensions of international relations stabilize and counteract the looming threats on the horizon.<\/p>\nRussian Militarization and Global Fallout<\/h2>\n
The NATO Dilemma<\/h2>\n
Economic Realities and Military Commitments<\/h2>\n
Emerging Challenges and Future Directions<\/h2>\n