{"id":151601,"date":"2025-06-23T14:29:54","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T14:29:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/how-could-a-prolonged-war-between-iran-and-the-united-states-affect-your-finances\/"},"modified":"2025-06-23T14:29:54","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T14:29:54","slug":"how-could-a-prolonged-war-between-iran-and-the-united-states-affect-your-finances","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/how-could-a-prolonged-war-between-iran-and-the-united-states-affect-your-finances\/","title":{"rendered":"How could a prolonged war between Iran and the United States affect your finances?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n

The armed conflicts in the Middle East<\/strong>, such as the recent bombing by the United States over Iran on June 22, have effects that extend beyond military or diplomatic consequences. One of the most immediate and tangible impacts for European citizens\u2014especially for those in Spain<\/strong>\u2014is reflected in the price of fuels<\/strong>. Despite the geographical distance, each episode of tension in the region typically ends up affecting the consumer’s wallet.<\/p>\n

Spain<\/strong> is heavily dependent on oil imports for the fuels consumed daily, with an almost 100% reliance on foreign crude. This absolute dependency<\/strong> makes the national economy particularly sensitive to fluctuations in international oil prices, with the Brent crude<\/strong> barrel serving as the primary benchmark in Europe.<\/p>\n

According to the Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, there is a strong correlation between crude oil prices and gasoline prices<\/strong>: when the former rises, the latter tends to follow suit within days or weeks.<\/p>\n

The Bank of Spain<\/strong> notes in its analysis, \u201cThe Effect of Oil Price Fluctuations on Spanish Inflation,\u201d that a 10% increase in the price of a barrel typically translates into a rise of 4% to 5% in the price of a liter of gasoline in Spain.<\/p>\n

The Immediate Impact: Cents to Euros<\/h2>\n

At the time of this publication, the price of 95 octane gasoline is around \u20ac1.51 per liter. If the price of Brent crude\u2014which is currently approximately $76 per barrel\u2014increased by 10% to $83.6, the final cost of fuel could rise by six to seven cents per liter. For a 50-liter tank, the difference would amount to around \u20ac3.50.<\/p>\n

In an economy where millions<\/strong> of people use cars daily and many goods are transported by road, these price hikes have a multiplicative effect<\/strong>. Not only do they increase individual commuting costs, but they also affect logistics and distribution, ultimately leading to higher prices for numerous goods and services.<\/p>\n

When Energy Raises the Cost of Living<\/h2>\n

Fuel is one of the most transversal inputs in the economy, representing about 2% to 3% of the total transportation cost of goods, directly influencing inflation.<\/p>\n

According to the Bank of Spain, oil price fluctuations have both a direct and indirect effect on Spanish inflation<\/a>. Recent figures from the INE<\/strong> confirm that monthly variations in the CPI<\/strong> are largely influenced by fuel prices. For instance, the April 2025 CPI press release from INE indicated that the Transportation category registered an annual variance of -1.6%, mainly due to falling prices of fuels and lubricants.<\/p>\n

A sustained increase in crude oil prices doesn\u2019t affect just the energy sector; it also impacts many other sectors<\/strong>, including food, textile, tourism, and industry. The reason is straightforward: any product that requires transportation or energy for production becomes more expensive. Thus, a conflict that strains the crude market can have enduring and widespread consequences for the overall economy.<\/p>\n

Escalation or Isolated Incident?<\/h2>\n

The extent of this impact depends on how events unfold. If the attack on Iran<\/strong> is a one-off incident, the market may react containedly, and prices could stabilize within a few weeks. This was seen in 2022 when oil prices surged above $130 per barrel<\/strong> but retreated to $75 by December of the same year.<\/p>\n

However, if the conflict escalates or affects key routes like the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>, through which over 20% of the world\u2019s crude oil passes\u2014around 21 million barrels a day\u2014oil prices could remain high for months. This situation could be exacerbated by possible sanctions, blockades, or production restrictions by exporting countries, further limiting supply and driving prices upward.<\/p>\n

Inflation as a Side Effect<\/h2>\n

The rising oil prices are just part of the equation. In a conflict context, maritime shipping costs also tend to rise. The Red Sea and the Suez Canal, through which according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development<\/strong> about 12% to 15% of global trade transits, have faced challenges from attacks on cargo ships and recent blockades. This situation raises the transport costs of goods, including agricultural products, chemicals, fertilizers, and consumer goods that reach Europe\u2014and Spain\u2014through these routes.<\/p>\n

The European Central Bank<\/strong> (ECB) warns in its economic bulletins that energy and supply shocks create “additional inflationary pressures” that can prolong periods of price increases. In its March 2024 report, the ECB highlighted that international geopolitical volatility remains a “key risk factor for inflation trends in the eurozone.”<\/p>\n

In the ECB Economic Bulletin 4\/2025, published in early June<\/strong>, it was indicated that while overall inflation in the eurozone is decreasing, inflationary pressures persist due to recent tensions in energy and international prices. The document explains that shocks in energy markets and supply disruptions remain key risk factors for inflation trends<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Spain has managed to reduce its overall inflation from the peaks of 2022, but a new round of rising oil and imported goods prices may trigger what economists call “second-round inflation,” where business costs<\/strong> are shifted back onto consumers, eroding the real purchasing power of wages.<\/p>\n

What About Interest Rates?<\/h2>\n

The monetary policy of the European Central Bank is also deeply influenced by the international context. Since 2022, the ECB has progressively raised its interest rates<\/strong> to a maximum of 4.5% in an attempt to contain inflation that surged due to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. This restrictive policy has increased consumer credit costs<\/strong>, variable-rate mortgages, and business financing, cooling economic growth across much of the eurozone.<\/p>\n

However, by June 2025, the ECB reference rate had dropped to 2%. This decision responded to moderated inflationary pressures and the need to reactivate the economy. Still, the central bank has indicated that the path of monetary easing is not guaranteed<\/strong>. If an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East drives energy prices up again and leads to sustained inflation increases, the ECB may be forced to halt predicted rate cuts<\/strong> or even raise rates again to maintain its price stability goal.<\/p>\n

Households and Businesses Affected<\/h2>\n

In this uncertain scenario, households and businesses are closely monitoring every move of the ECB<\/strong>, aware that a prolonged conflict in a key region for global energy supply can again translate into more expensive financing and additional pressure on consumption and investment.<\/p>\n

This has concrete effects on daily life. According to the latest publication from the INE, as of April 2025, 35% of current mortgages in Spain are variable-rate<\/strong>. This means that millions of households experienced a significant increase in their monthly payments when the European Central Bank initiated a rate hike policy that brought the reference rate to 4.5%. In many cases, monthly payments soared by between \u20ac200 and \u20ac300.<\/p>\n

However, by June 2025, the reference rates had been reduced to 2%, providing some financial relief for families with loans tied to the Euribor<\/strong>. Yet, this respite could be delayed or even reversed if geopolitical instability\u2014like a protracted conflict between the U.S. and Iran\u2014leads to a new wave of inflation.<\/p>\n

In such a case, the ECB could be compelled to halt future cuts or once again raise rates<\/strong>, which would maintain pressure on households most vulnerable to rising credit costs.<\/p>\n

The impact is also felt in business investment. SMEs that operate on narrow margins face higher financing costs, which may hinder expansion or hiring decisions<\/strong>. For freelancers, the increased costs of inputs and challenges in passing those costs onto their selling prices generate additional pressures.<\/p>\n

The wars in the Middle East do not remain confined to foreign policy offices. They trickle down into the daily lives of millions through rising fuel costs. A conflict<\/strong> like the one unfolding today between the U.S. and Iran can lead to an increase in the price of barrels, and consequently, gasoline prices. The rise may seem small\u2014just six or seven cents per liter\u2014but when multiplied across every tank, every truck, and every logistical chain, the real and profound impacts become evident.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n


\n
General News – 2<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The armed conflicts in the Middle East, such as the recent bombing by the United States over Iran on June 22, have effects that extend beyond military or diplomatic consequences. One of the most immediate and tangible impacts for European citizens\u2014especially for those in Spain\u2014is reflected in the price of fuels. Despite the geographical distance, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23832],"tags":[749,36932,36725,5120,2507,3096,13307,611,610,326],"class_list":["post-151601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-finance","tag-affect","tag-economia-macroeconomia","tag-estados-unidos","tag-finances","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-prolonged","tag-states","tag-united","tag-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151601","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=151601"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151601\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=151601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=151601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=151601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}