L<\/span>he last commercial threat brandished by US President Donald Trump – a 25 % customs salvo on a wide range of European products and even 200 % on wines – is not a diplomatic adventure. It reveals a deeper and more disturbing dynamic: the use, by Washington, of commercial policy as a geoeconomic weapon.<\/p>\n An apothecary exercise could roughly quantify the effects of these 25 %. In 2023, France exported for 45 billion euros in goods to the United States, mainly in aeronautics, pharmacy, wine and cosmetics. So many sectors for which the competitiveness of exporting companies would be burdened.<\/p>\n A simple macroeconomic simulation (based on an elasticity price for estimated customs rights between – 0.5 and – 1.5, with a factor attenuating linked to the quality of French products, the loyalty of American customers or the capacity of French companies to absorb part of the additional costs) suggests a contraction around 10 %, or a potential loss of exports from 3.5 to 5 billion euros per year. The shock would be particularly severe for aeronautics and for wines and spirits, which alone represent a good part of the bilateral excess of France.<\/p>\n In addition, the economic instability linked to the introduction of customs duties is subject to amplifying channels, because it is embedded in a hegemonic paradigm, both monetary – the dollar dominates the world – and budgetary – public deficits are massive and chronic. Faced with this, how can Europe retaliate without getting lost in a self-destructive escalation?<\/p>\nCut the dollar tap<\/h2>\n
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