{"id":104208,"date":"2024-12-13T18:45:44","date_gmt":"2024-12-13T18:45:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/statistics-norway-predicts-five-interest-rate-cuts-in-2025-people-didnt-believe-it-news-rogaland-local-news-tv-and-radio\/"},"modified":"2024-12-13T18:45:46","modified_gmt":"2024-12-13T18:45:46","slug":"statistics-norway-predicts-five-interest-rate-cuts-in-2025-people-didnt-believe-it-news-rogaland-local-news-tv-and-radio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/statistics-norway-predicts-five-interest-rate-cuts-in-2025-people-didnt-believe-it-news-rogaland-local-news-tv-and-radio\/","title":{"rendered":"Statistics Norway predicts five interest rate cuts in 2025. People didn’t believe it – news Rogaland – Local news, TV and radio"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

– I don’t believe it until I see it, says Arild Krumshagen. The policy interest rate is now 4.5 per cent. It has been that way for a whole year. The last time interest rates were this high was at the end of 2008. Statistics Norway (SSB) expects five interest rate cuts in the course of next year. With five interest rate cuts, the interest rate at the end of 2025 will be 3.25 per cent. But even if Krumshagen finds it difficult to believe that the interest rate will decrease by 1.25 percentage points, he naturally hopes for a decrease. – Interest rates are increasing. The current increases. Everything goes up in price, he says. Therefore, Statistics Norway believes in five interest rate cuts: Lower inflation: Inflation has fallen significantly and is heading towards Norges Bank’s inflation target of 2 per cent. Strengthened krone exchange rate: The krone has strengthened, which contributes to lower imported prices and further dampens inflationary pressure. Economic stabilization: The Norwegian economy has had a period of high interest rates which has contributed to slowing down growth. Lower interest rates are now considered necessary to stimulate economic activity, especially in the housing market and private consumption. International conditions: Interest rates at Norway’s trading partners are also on the way down, and this affects expectations of Norwegian monetary policy. Taken together, these factors form the basis for the forecast of five interest rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each during 2025. Source: Statistics Norway. Chief economist Kyrre Knudsen: – In excess – It may seem a bit excessive, says chief economist Kyrre Knudsen at Sparebank 1 S\u00f8r-Norge. Knudsen believes that Norges Bank, which controls interest rates, will introduce three interest rate cuts in 2025, i.e. an interest rate down to 3.75 per cent. Chief economist Kyrre Knudsen believes in fewer interest rate cuts, but says Statistics Norway’s forecasts paint a dream scenario for the Norwegian economy. Photo: Jan Inge Haga – Within two to three years, I think the interest rate could be down to 3 per cent. But if Statistics Norway’s forecasts are correct, Knudsen believes there are good prospects for the Norwegian economy. – Statistics Norway draws a dream scenario for the Norwegian economy: They expect growth in jobs to pick up, unemployment to remain fairly low, they expect good real wage growth, and inflation to go down. What does the mortgage with a lower interest rate cost? If you borrow NOK 3 million from the bank to buy a home for the same sum, it will cost you around NOK 18,400 every month. The repayment period here is 25 years. If the interest rate goes down by 0.25 percentage points: NOK 18,000 a month If the interest rate goes down by 0.5 percentage points: NOK 17,600 a month And if the interest rate goes down by 0.75 percentage points: NOK 17,200 a month I think 4.5 has become it the new normal – I don’t believe in five interest rate cuts. Maybe two? Ragnhild Hapnes – I think the interest rate will stay at 4.5 per cent for many years to come. It has become the new normal. Bj\u00f8rn Knudsen – That would have been good. But I am not convinced about five cuts. J\u00f8rgen Malmin Statistics Norway has been wrong several times In 2023, Statistics Norway believed that the policy rate would remain unchanged at 4.25 percent until mid-2024. After that, they expected a gradual reduction in the policy rate. But: Four days after the forecast was published, Norges Bank increased the interest rate to 4.5 per cent. And so it has been there ever since. In 2022, Statistics Norway believed that the key interest rate reached a peak of 3 per cent at the start of 2023, which meant an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the level of 2.5 per cent at the end of 2022. Here they also estimated that the interest rate could be reduced to around 2 per cent in 2024. In 2023 the interest rate was as high as 4.5 per cent. Statistics Norway: – Our forecasts have not been correct Thomas von Brasch is a researcher at Statistics Norway. He feels confident in what they have laid down as a basis for there to be five interest rate cuts. For example, that price pressure has become lower in Norway and that the growth prospects for trading partners are weaker. Thomas von Brasch is a researcher at Statistics Norway and explains why they believe there will be five interest rate cuts. Among other things, he points to lower price pressure in Norway and weaker growth in countries we trade with. Photo: H\u00e5kon Mosvold Larsen \/ NTB scanpix – There are always various financial disturbances that mean that you don’t hit. In the last two or three years, inflation has been higher than expected, partly due to the weakening of the krona, he says. This is something that means their forecasts have not been correct, he believes. The researcher believes that the interest rate will remain at 3.25 at the start of 2026 and that it will remain there for some time to come. – We actually agree with Knudsen, it’s just that he thinks it will take us longer to get down to 3.25 per cent. Published 13.12.2024, at 19.22
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– I don’t believe it until I see it, says Arild Krumshagen. The policy interest rate is now 4.5 per cent. It has been that way for a whole year. The last time interest rates were this high was at the end of 2008. Statistics Norway (SSB) expects five interest rate cuts in the course […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":104209,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1778,6068,1539,151,16,14,438,2426,152,2271,300,1611],"class_list":["post-104208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-cuts","tag-didnt","tag-interest","tag-local","tag-news","tag-norway","tag-people","tag-predicts","tag-radio","tag-rate","tag-rogaland","tag-statistics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104208","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104208"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104208\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104209"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/teknomers.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}