## The Aftermath of El Mencho’s Death
For more than four decades, the relationship between Mexico and the United States has been marked by a shared yet asymmetric war against drug trafficking. This enduring conflict has seen phases of open confrontation, silent cooperation, and mutual reproaches. While criminal networks adapted, fragmented, and strengthened in response to the relentless demand for drugs in the U.S., they have often unleashed violence across Mexico. With each significant blow against a cartel leader comes not only operational success but also the sobering realization that a new and alarming phase is about to begin.
### The Biggest Blow in a Decade
The death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” represents the most important strike against organized crime in Mexico since the fall of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. El Mencho was the undisputed leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), an organization that became notorious for its expansion, violence, and international capabilities. With operations in numerous countries, the CJNG has played a critical role in the trafficking of methamphetamine and fentanyl into the United States.
### A Definitive Breakup in Strategy
Politically, the operation that resulted in El Mencho’s death marks a significant departure from the previous strategy of “hugs, not bullets.” This new approach focuses on intelligence, coordination, and direct action against criminal leaders. Under the administration of Claudia Sheinbaum, arrests and seizures have surged, particularly along the northern border. This shift indicates a renewed effort to regain control over criminal organizations that have benefited from prior periods of limited state intervention.
### Immediate Chaos and Reaction
In the wake of such a high-profile operation, the response from the cartel has been swift and coordinated. Blockades, vehicle fires, and attacks on infrastructure have paralyzed entire regions, particularly in cities like Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, where panic has reminiscently echoed prior crises. The deployment of federal forces and travel alerts underscore a grim reality: the cartel’s operational capacity does not simply vanish with the death of its leader.
### The Unknown Future of CJNG
With El Mencho’s natural heir currently imprisoned in the United States, the succession within the CJNG poses a significant risk. Internal disputes among regional commanders could lead to fragmentation and weakened organizational structure. Historically, such transitions have resulted in prolonged violence and territorial disputes affecting communities on a large scale.
### Three Disturbing Scenarios for the U.S.
Looking toward Washington, the unfolding events could significantly alter the security dynamics of North America, presenting three particularly worrisome scenarios:
#### 1. A Potential Internal War
An internal struggle for power could plunge the CJNG into a chaotic state, generating regional violence, displacement, and increased flows of weapons and drugs toward the U.S.
#### 2. A Rival Cartel Offensive
Competing cartels might seize the opportunity to expand their territory and disrupt logistics chains, leading to a national conflict resembling the violent strife seen in Sinaloa—a situation that would challenge border stability and investment.
#### 3. The Rise of New Leadership
The emergence of a new leader could result in the reorganization of the CJNG, potentially making operations more clandestine and sophisticated, particularly in the trafficking of fentanyl. This would necessitate Washington’s reevaluation of its cooperative strategies and possibly spark debates over direct interventions, raising questions about Mexican sovereignty and regional integration.
### A Turning Point in Bilateral Relations
The operation that eliminated El Mencho was a collaborated effort between Mexican forces and U.S. intelligence, amidst significant political pressure from the White House. While this tactical success may reinforce cooperation, it also raises expectations for concrete results. If violence escalates or the criminal environment adapts without losing effectiveness, both nations may need to recalibrate how they manage their shared border and security concerns.
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In summary, El Mencho’s death has opened a Pandora’s box of possibilities that could reshape the drug trafficking landscape between Mexico and the United States, pressing the need for a recalibrated approach to tackling the persistent issue of organized crime.