The fighting in Bakhmut in Ukraine is described as a zombie movie by Ukrainian soldiers. – The rifles got so hot from the constant shooting that they had to be replaced regularly, soldier Andriy tells CNN. Poorly trained and unmotivated Russian soldiers climb over the corpses of their friends and directly into the line of fire. The Ukrainian trenches are being filled up by a sea of casings. Russian soldiers who are now prisoners of war tell The New York Times that the use of large numbers of untrained soldiers has become an important part of Russia’s strategy in southern Ukraine. The POWs explain that they are being sent in large groups to wear down Ukrainian soldiers before more experienced Russian forces are sent in. Or they are used as bait to make the Ukrainians reveal their position when they shoot at them. This tactic requires a great many Russian lives, and large amounts of Ukrainian ammunition. Tor Bukkvoll works at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI) and works with research on security policy matters in Russia. Tor Bukkvoll at FFI explains that the large death toll on the Russian side is a sign that the war is going badly for them. Photo: FFI He believes the Russians are compensating by sending these masses of poorly equipped and poorly trained personnel to make up for the lack of equipment. – The Russians do not have the advantage in terms of weapons that they had when the war started. They use crews rather than artillery, Bukkvoll explains. Lost the upper hand Since the war broke out, the Russians have suffered major material losses, while Ukraine has received military equipment mainly from the West. – They had a big advantage when it came to material when the war started, but a lot has been destroyed as a result of the way the war has gone, Bukkvoll explains. Ukraine has destroyed a lot of Russian equipment since the war started. The Russians no longer have the upper hand they once had. Photo: Libkos / AP British intelligence says it believes 200,000 soldiers have either been killed or wounded since the war began. They believe that between 40,000 and 60,000 Russian soldiers are dead. The conflict intelligence team, a private Ukrainian excavation group, arrived at almost the same figures. Bukkvoll also refers to these figures. He believes the death toll is a good indicator that things are going badly for the Russians. The rumor of the enormous death toll must have reached Russian prisons, which have long been one of the places where the Russians have recruited soldiers. The prisoners will no longer be as motivated to participate in the war, and Wagner will have stopped recruiting from prisons as a result, writes the Financial Times. The head of the private Russian army Wagner recruits soldiers in a prison in Russia. Bukkvoll believes that recruitment in general is apparently still going quite well for the Russians. – It should be a problem for recruitment, but it seems that the Kremlin is still getting hold of a lot of people. After all, one million have fled Russia to avoid the mobilization. Nevertheless, they have so far managed to fill up. Risk for Putin Putin officially mobilized 300,000 new soldiers in September. Mobilization means forcing citizens into the military. Ukrainian intelligence believes they may have recruited as many as 500,000. – If the Russians manage to take Donbas before the mud period, they may not have to recruit more people, but few believe they are able to do it, says Bukkvoll. – Most people expect that Russia will have to recruit more people, says Bukkvoll. This could be risky for Putin. Putin recruits from the bottom of Russian society to minimize risk. Photo: POOL / Reuters Bukkvoll explains that the reason why Putin waited so long to mobilize is that in the long run it undermines the regime’s legitimacy. Putin has recruited people at the bottom of the ladder of Russian society, the poor and people in prison. He has largely avoided recruiting from the big cities. The elite in Russia is mostly concentrated in the big cities, and it is politically risky if the war becomes unpopular among them. – If there are threats against the regime, they will arise there, in Moscow or St. Petersburg, says Bukkvoll. Bukkvoll believes that Putin is afraid to bring soldiers from the big cities where the elite and the middle class live for fear of rebellion. Photo: COLORBOX – The further down in society he recruits from, the less effect it will have politically within Russia. – But there are not endless people at the bottom of the ladder, he says. Bukkvoll believes that Putin is delaying further recruitment as long as possible because of this risk. Running out if we don’t help Whether Ukraine will run out of ammunition before the Russians run out of people is up to us in the West, the researcher believes. – If we stop helping them, they will run out. But the Western defense industry is apparently planning for longer-term support for Ukraine. Several experts warn that the West is in the process of emptying its ammunition stocks. Stoltenberg calls for more ammunition to be produced to support Ukraine over a longer period of time. Photo: Virginia Mayo / AP NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has recently warned that Ukraine is using up ammunition faster than it is producing new ones. – The war in Ukraine and the country’s growing need for military material mean that NATO must increase its weapons production, he says.
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Will Ukraine run out of ammo before Russia runs out of people? – news Norway – Overview of news from different parts of the country
