– I would like to congratulate William Lai on his victory. With those words, the pro-China presidential candidate, Hou Yu-ih, conceded defeat after an intense election campaign. Chinese authorities have called Lai a “dangerous separatist” and asked voters on the island to “vote correctly” to avoid a military conflict in the future. China’s official Taiwan office says in a statement that “Taiwan is China’s Taiwan” and that the election results do not give a true picture of the people’s opinion. We have spoken to three researchers about what William Lai’s election victory could mean for Taiwan. Hans Jørgen GåsemyrSenior researcher, NUPIThinks that Lai may have to moderate in his new positionThinks the victory could lead to increased tensions between Taiwan and ChinaHarald BøckmannExpert in Chinese language, culture, history and politicsThinks today’s victory is also a victory for democracyTension will continue to define the relationship between the two countries Øystein Tunsjø Professor at the Department of Defense Studies Focuses on the fact that the parliamentary election will be important Points out how orderly the election has been despite pressure from China Gåsemyr: – Will have to moderate President-elect William Lai is known for being outspoken when it comes to Taiwan’s relationship with China. That may change now that he has won the election, says Hans Jørgen Gåsemyr. – Lai has been very clear about the country’s independence policy, more so than today’s president Tsai Ing-wen. Now he will be the country’s new leader, so he will certainly face pressure to moderate so as not to provoke China, he says. Gåsemyr says that Lai’s victory could lead to increased tensions with China. – China is used to Taiwan governing itself, but has pursued a more aggressive policy towards the country in recent years – especially when people in Taiwan have asked questions about the country’s future and China. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) celebrates the election victory Photo: Louise Delmotte / AP Bøckmann: – Victory for democracy Lai’s party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which fights for Taiwan’s own identity and rejects China’s territorial claims on the island, now wins the presidency for a third term, which has never happened before under Taiwan’s current electoral system. Harald Bøckmann believes this is a sign that the people of Taiwan have strong confidence in democracy. – The Progressive Party has set in motion a vision of how to develop Taiwanese society. So I think that it is the visions for Taiwan that have meant a lot, he says. In China, the country’s authorities have called Lai a dangerous separatist and warned voters on the island to “vote correctly” to avoid a military conflict in the future. – What does this mean for the tension with China going forward? – That means continued increased tension, as it is today between the two countries. At the same time, it shows Beijing that there is a population that actually knows what they want. The results are the best proof that Taiwan will continue to be a democracy, says Bøckmann. – I interpret this as a declaration of confidence and an expression that democracy in Taiwan is functioning well. Supporters of DDP cheer in the streets of Tapei. Photo: ANN WANG / Reuters He believes that the issue of relations with China has been with the Taiwanese for 70 years, and is there all the time. – We have a tendency in the West to exaggerate the importance of this, he says to news. Tunsjø: – The parliamentary election will be important Alongside the presidential election, there are also elections for the country’s national assembly. The final result has not arrived on Saturday afternoon, but preliminary results show a decline for the DPP (Lai’s party). That could present problems for the incoming president. – If the opposition gains the upper hand in the parliamentary elections, it will balance politics, says Øystein Tunsjø. He believes that it is important to focus on how orderly the election has been despite pressure from China with computer attacks and sanctions. – Nevertheless, Taiwan has managed to carry out a democratic election. It goes against a trend we see all over the world where democracies are under pressure, even in the US and Europe. – Can the victory lead to a war? – I don’t think we will have a war now, but it is clear that Beijing is unhappy with this election result. They are concerned that Taiwan will move in a direction that increases Taiwan’s independence, but I think it is too early to say that this will develop into a war. And he continues: – But, you can never rule it out. A DPP supporter with the poster “Team Taiwan”. The party fights for Taiwan’s own identity. Photo: ANN WANG / Reuters
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