In this case, you can read about: When Israel and Hamas agreed on a halt in fighting in the Gaza Strip at the end of November, several hostages and prisoners were released. 105 Israeli hostages against 240 Palestinian prisoners. Trailers with emergency aid, food and medical equipment could more easily pass into Gaza on their way to the war-affected population. For seven days the war was put on a sort of pause. Khan Younis: People look for their properties during the ceasefire at the end of November last year. Calls for a new ceasefire have been repeated daily since fighting resumed. Civilians on both sides of the conflict are calling for a halt to hostilities. So does the Pope, aid organisations, human rights organisations, demonstrating populations worldwide and a large majority of UN countries. But there is no new truce in sight. Why not? Civilians around the world have taken to the streets to demand a ceasefire in the war in Gaza. Here, protesters play dead during a demonstration for a ceasefire at Oslo Central Station, exactly one month after 7 October last year. Photo: NTB news has asked experts. Historian and Middle East researcher Marte Heian-Engdal calls the war too dramatic, and believes both sides can benefit from a ceasefire. Nevertheless, she believes that neither Hamas nor Israel feel that they have enough to gain from a ceasefire right now: – The negotiators must succeed in creating something that can function as a kind of victory for both parties. A group of Israelis cheers when a helicopter carrying Israeli hostages lands in Israel during the ceasefire on 26 November last year. Photo: AP Heian-Engdal believes that Israel may be more inclined if, for example, they see that their soldiers need a break, or that they once again reach an agreement in which enough hostages are handed over by Hamas. The same applies to Hamas, Heian-Engdal believes. Hamas must release a high enough number of prisoners from Israeli prisons, which they can present as a kind of victory over the Palestinians. These trailers with humanitarian aid waited for several days on the border between Egypt and the city of Rafah, in the very south of Gaza, before the ceasefire. Here they are on their way across the border, 24 November last year. Photo: AP Sigbjørn Halsne is lieutenant colonel and head of the section for land forces at the Norwegian Defense Academy. He partly agrees with Heian-Engdal on what is needed for Hamas and Israel to agree on a ceasefire. – If there is progress in the negotiations surrounding the exchange of hostages and prisoners, then it could lead to a ceasefire, Halsne notes and adds: – But according to the Israeli authorities, this will not happen at any cost. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he wants to crush Hamas, which seems to have become an invariable demand in the conflict. Photo: RONEN ZVULUN / Reuters Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is clear that he will not withdraw his soldiers from Gaza until a “complete victory”. According to Netanyahu, a complete victory means crushing Hamas, returning all Israeli hostages from Gaza, and ensuring that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel. Israel seems determined to implement this plan, Halsne believes. – Israel has a goal of destroying Hamas and seems determined to complete this operation. Hamas, for its part, has been clear that it will only release the remaining Israeli hostages as part of a permanent ceasefire. A cease-fire is not a matter of course Halsne will not call the situation deadlocked because, after all, a kind of dialogue has been maintained between the two parties through other parties. Egypt and Qatar assist in the mediation between Israel and Hamas. In addition, a “contact group” of Arab foreign ministers is traveling the world to promote a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. People around the world are taking to the streets to demand a ceasefire in Gaza. Here from a protest in Madrid in January. Photo: AP Halsne points out that despite talks, it is not a given that there will be a new ceasefire. – Not all wars end with an armistice. Some end with one party losing, and here Israel seems very determined. A situation where Hamas remains in power in Gaza is probably unacceptable for Israel. Halsnes is nevertheless skeptical of the way Israel tries to achieve this goal, by using brutal and intensive military force. – Fighting a movement like Hamas with military force in this way can ensure recruitment to the same movement later, he says. Pope Francis has repeatedly called for a ceasefire. Photo: FILIPPO MONTEFORTE / AFP – You have to combine the use of military force with political solutions. But if you are too one-sided in your response to the conflict, you only get the same problem five to ten years later. This challenge confronts the US and the West again and again in the confrontation with rebel movements. – We saw how it went with the Western coalition in Afghanistan, he says. Diplomacy must continue But even if diplomacy has not yet led to negotiations, it is still absolutely necessary, believes Heian-Engdal. – Without attempts at such conversations, nothing happens. Then there is no alternative on the table for the armed forces, says the Middle East researcher. If a ceasefire is not immediately put in place, she fears that the crisis will only grow bigger and bigger. – With hunger and hardship and possibly a large-scale displacement of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, she says. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is received by Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani in January. They met for talks on how to avoid an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Photo: AFP Israel’s close ally, the United States, can play a bigger role, the experts believe. – The key lies in the USA. They are the only ones who can ensure political pressure on Israel in the direction of a ceasefire, says Lieutenant Colonel Halsne. In the case of Hamas, it is the central Arab actors who can influence the group’s direction. – But both Hamas and Israel are autonomous actors and ultimately choose actions themselves, emphasizes Halsne. Antony Blinken is on tour in the Middle East. During the trip, Blinken will continue negotiations with Arab countries. Photo: Mark Schiefelbein / AFP Heian-Engdal, on the other hand, believes that the US president has little to gain by easing further pressure on Israel, and points to the fact that it is an election year in the US. The country has previously blocked resolutions calling for a ceasefire in the UN Security Council. This week US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is once again in the Middle East. He says he will work for the release of Israeli hostages, and a pause in the hostilities, so that emergency aid can enter the Gaza Strip. Blinken will also discuss ceasefire proposals. A brooding American president. Joe Biden and the United States play a key role in putting political pressure on Israel, experts say. But the US has previously blocked resolutions calling for a ceasefire in the UN Security Council. Photo: Miriam Alster / AFP Previous proposal rejected This weekend there was tension surrounding a ceasefire proposal brokered by Qatar and Egypt. Hamas’s representative traveled to Egypt to negotiate, and Israel’s to Paris. The proposal was supported by the US and Israel, while Hamas has asked for a longer reflection period. It is unclear exactly what the proposal entails.
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