Exploring the Implications of Russia’s Strategic Moves in De Carlo Masala’s *If Russia Wins*
Lenin famously stated, “It probes with bayonets: if it is soft, it is progressing; if steel is found, it goes back.” This phrase resonates deeply after reading De Carlo Masala’s newly published book, If Russia Wins. A professor of strategy at the University of the German Army in Munich, Masala outlines a hypothetical future scenario that defines significant geopolitical shifts for Europe, Russia, and their allies.
The narrative unfolds in 2026, where a controversial truce is formed between Ukraine and Russia. This agreement involves Ukraine conceding nearly a fifth of its territory to Russia, primarily due to the waning military support from the USA and Europe. Although there’s no formal international recognition for the territories Russia has seized, a tacit acceptance allows the situation to stagnate — reminiscent of historical examples like northern Cyprus, which remains occupied by Türkiye since the 1970s. Following the truce, an unexpected development occurs: Putin resigns, paving the way for a reform-minded successor. However, hidden beneath the surface is the new president’s intention to revitalize Russia’s geopolitical strength.
Russian Militarization and Global Fallout
Masala’s scenario intensifies in 2028, revealing Russian paramilitary groups operating in Mali and inducing a mass exodus of locals attempting to reach Europe via precarious boat journeys known as pateras. The German government is forced to divert two frigates into the Mediterranean for maritime surveillance, stretching their military resources and undermining their capacity in the Baltic Sea.
At the same time, Russian and Chinese forces challenge the Philippines by deploying troops to the disputed Spratly Islands. In response, the Philippines invokes its military alliance with the USA, compelling the US to reroute two aircraft groups into the Pacific region.
As tensions rise, Russian forces extend their aggression towards Estonia, targeting a predominantly Russian-speaking city and executing an amphibious operation to capture an island in the Baltic Sea. Concurrently, Russia wages a covert “hybrid” war against Europe, executing sabotage operations like the assassination of a German weapons manufacturer and deploying a nuclear-equipped submarine to an uninhabited island contested by Canada and Denmark.
The NATO Dilemma
In this climate of aggression, Estonia invokes Article Five of NATO, seeking military support to defend its territory. However, the response from allied nations raises critical questions: Are countries like Italy or Spain prepared to send troops to support their Baltic partner? Would the USA, under the “America First” doctrine, risk nuclear confrontation over a Baltic city?
These discussions will significantly influence NATO’s future and consequently the dynamics outlined in If Russia Wins. Masala deftly conveys that defensive responses are not merely war strategies—they send critical geopolitical messages. A failure to curb Russian aggression could embolden China‘s ambitions concerning Taiwan, suggesting that sheer power, rather than legal frameworks, governs international relations.
Economic Realities and Military Commitments
Intriguingly, Masala’s book skirts over the economic realities in this geopolitical landscape, which are just as crucial. The European Union boasts a GDP ten times that of Russia, with a population three times greater. However, without US military leverage—exemplified by essential resources like military satellites, long-range cruise missiles, and aerial refueling systems—Europe’s ability to mount a robust military response remains hampered.
War isn’t just fought with hardware (weapons, drones) but also relies on software: the collective will to fight. Alarmingly, surveys indicate a declining percentage of Europeans willing to defend not just allies but their own nations in the event of invasion.
In the bleakest hours of World War II, Winston Churchill posited, “The nations that sink fight again, but those that surrender are extinguished.” For Masala, deviating from this ethos likely communicates weakness to authoritarian regimes, eager to exploit fissures in the international order.
Emerging Challenges and Future Directions
Notably, Masala’s work captures an emerging specter in global politics, as articulated by the Marxist thinker Gramsci: “The Old World dies. The new takes to appear. And in that clearing, the monsters arise.” His observations serve as a clarion call to strategists, policymakers, and citizens alike.
Navigating the treacherous waters of contemporary geopolitical challenges requires a decisive approach. If nations grapple with the hybrid warfare tactics employed by Russia, Europe must unify under a renewed commitment to collective defense, backed by a resolute economic framework. Only then can the moral and military dimensions of international relations stabilize and counteract the looming threats on the horizon.
Lenin said: “It probes with bayonets: if it is soft, it is progressing; if steel is found, it goes back.” I have remembered this phrase after finishing reading the exciting newly published book *If Russia Wins*, De Carlo Masala, professor of strategy at the University of the German Army in Munich.
The book raises a stage in 2026 in which a truce agreement is reached in Ukraine involved in the transfer of a fifth of the territory to Russia since the wear of USA And Europe to continue supporting the war makes Ukraine maintain military effort. There is no international recognition of the areas conquered by Russia, but it is accepted in practice, as is the case today with the northern area of Cyprus occupied by Türkiye in the seventies. After the firm, Putin it presents its resignation, and a young and reformist president is chosen who, however, hides a continuous agenda: to restore Russian geopolitical power. To achieve this, he secretly rebuilds the Russian war machinery and intensifies the economic and military alliance with Beijing.
In 2028, Russian paramilitary groups with a presence in Mali force the massive emigration of the local population in pateras to Europe, which forces Germany to divert two frigates to the Mediterranean to reinforce migratory surveillance, thus limiting their ability to act in the Baltic. Besides, China in concert with Russia, it challenges Philippines deploying a contingent on the Spratly Islands, disputed by both nations. The Philippines invokes its military alliance with the US, which moves this last country to divert two groups of aircraft to the Pacific. In that context, Russian troops invade a city of Estonia near the border, with an 80% of Russian speaker, and in an amphibious operation, Russia takes an island of Estonia in the Baltic Sea. In addition, Russia hits Europe with a “hybrid” war through undercover sabotage actions: from killing the CEO of an important German weapons manufacturer to sending a submarine equipped with nuclear heads and with special forces to plant the Russian flag on an uninhabited island and until recently disputed between Canada and Denmark. After retiring, Moscow leaves an unequivocal message about its nuclear projection.
The book exposes the geopolitical challenges that arise from these actions. Estonia invokes the fifth article of the NATO and asks his allies for a military response to defend his territory. The debate, however, is arduous. Would the rest of the allied countries face, starting with a US that proclaims the doctrine “America first” to a possible nuclear war for a city of Estonia? Would countries like Italy or Spain be willing to send troops to Baltic countries to honor their alliance? Would your military commitments maintain France with NATO under a president of the extreme right with Russian Filo positions? The future of NATO will depend on the outcome of this debate and therefore, If Russia wins.
The book raises the very important geopolitical messages that emanate from a possible response to an aggression. You can provide a signal to China on Taiwan: what really matters is power, not the law. This was written by Tucidides 2,500 years ago in his famous “Dialogue of the Melios”, and repeated it, less than one hundred years ago, the Nazi jurist Carl Schmitt, today sadly admired in certain circles of the Maga Movement in the US.
It is important to also calibrate the economic dimension, which the book does not address. The European Union’s GDP is 10 times greater than that of Russia. Its population, three times higher. However, although Europe decided to go to Estonia’s aid, without the US military support, the action would be unfeasible, since Europe depends on Washington in critical military infrastructure: military satellites, in scope cruise missiles that exceed 2,000 kilometers and in aerial refueling systems. In addition, war not only requires hardware (weapons, drones), but also software: The will to fight. And the percentage of Europeans who affirm that it would defend, not only to an ally, but to their own country in case of invasion, is getting smaller.
In the darkest days of World War II, Churchill said that the nations that sink fight again, but those that surrender are extinguished. For Masala, not following this maxim is equivalent to providing unequivocal signals to authoritarian regimes, always attentive to any sample of weakness to undermine the international order that gradually begins to question. Recently, the weekly geopolitics columnist The Economist evoked a phrase by Marxist writer Gramsci: “The Old World dies. The new takes to appear. And in that clearing the monsters arise.”
We are there.
Ignacio de la Torre He is a chief economist of Arcano and professor of the IE.