A private plane belonging to Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin landed at an airport near Belarus’ capital Minsk on Tuesday morning. Prigozhin is the head of the mercenary Wagner group that has fought on the Russian side in Ukraine. At the weekend, Prigozhin was behind an armed uprising against the military leadership in Moscow. Now his life hangs in the balance, we are to believe several Russia experts. – Prigozhin has stepped up to the plate and established himself as an alternative to Putin. There are only two outcomes: Either he is fired, or he becomes the new president. I would expect him to be taken away, says director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute Iver B. Neumann to news. Director Iver B. Neumann at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute Photo: Jan Dalsgaard Sørensen Many have asked the question of what will happen if Prigozhin manages to gather an army in Belarus. Will it be used for attacks in Ukraine from Belarus. Will Belarus’ strongman Aleksandr Lukashenko use the army for his purposes? – If Prigozhin were to succeed in forming a new mercenary army in Belarus, it would be all the more urgent for Putin to take him out, says Neumann. Power play in Russia Russian politics can be seen as a pyramid where everyone is dependent on the man at the top, who is Vladimir Putin, explains Neumann. Putin is running a game of divide and rule where he gives some advantages and pits people against each other. Prigozhin has long been an open critic of the Russian military elite and made harsh statements on social media. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin in a car on his way out of Rostov on Saturday evening, after the agreement was concluded with the president of Belarus. Photo: ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / REUTERS At the weekend, he chose to rebel against this with weapons in hand. In that way, he questioned Putin’s legitimate power, which is why he was called a “traitor.” Precisely this can explain that Prigozhin can be killed, says Neumann. The uprising ended with an agreement negotiated by President Aleksandr Lukashenko. The details of the agreement are unclear, but the Wagner manager was to move to Belarus. Since then, he has defended what he called “a march for justice.” – The Wagner group in Ukraine will be disbanded According to the agreement, the Wagner group’s mercenaries will be exempt from punishment for having taken part in the rebellion against the Kremlin and the rest will from now on be part of the regular Russian army. The Wagner group numbers 25,000 men in total. The Wagner group took control of the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on Saturday in what was described as an attempted coup against the Russian army leadership and Vladimir Putin. Photo: Vasily Deryugin / AP The weekend’s dramatic events most likely mean the end of the Wagner Group in Ukraine, Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen believes. He believes Putin handled what looked like an attempted coup in a smart way. This is the Wagner Group * The Russian Wagner Group is a private military mercenary company. The group is based in southwestern Russia, near the annexed Crimean peninsula. * How many from the group have participated for Russia in the war in Ukraine is not known. Many of the group’s soldiers are recruited from Russian prisons. * The Wagner group has sent soldiers to a number of countries, including Syria, Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, Sudan and Mozambique. * Mercenaries from Wagner are accused of war crimes in Syria, Libya and Mali. * The group was founded by the former GRU officer Dmitry Utkin and is led by the oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin (62). * Prigozhin is sometimes referred to as Putin’s chef because he previously ran a catering company that delivered food to the Kremlin. * The EU and Great Britain have imposed sanctions on the Wagner group, and Prigozhin is wanted by the FBI. – The Russian defense would probably have stopped Wagner before they reached the center of Moscow. But an open confrontation on the outskirts of the capital would have been a disaster, says Karlsen to news. – Have no choice The question is whether the mercenaries will continue their warfare in Ukraine, but under a different leader. But several experts believe that the Wagner group as it has existed until now in Ukraine will be shut down. Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen. Photo: Even Bjøringsøy Johnsen / news They will probably split up and dismantle the Wagner group, Karlsen believes. In addition, the Wagner group will be deprived of both weapons and ammunition. Then it will be difficult to continue. – It will prevent further uprisings from below, and then Putin will eventually move towards Prigozhin and set an example to prevent new uprisings or coups, says Karlsen. The mercenaries are forced to join the Russian armed forces. The pay will be much worse, but they will risk prison if they disobey the new order, according to Neumann. – The agreement that was concluded must be taken with a grain of salt. The Russian state will take what it needs, says Neumann. The feared and infamous mercenary Wagner is not just a mercenary in Ukraine. They have fought in Libya, Syria, the Central African Republic and Mali. In addition, it has major economic interests, including in Africa and the Middle East.
ttn-69
What happens to the Wagner group now? – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
