The IDF asks Lebanese in the south of the country to flee north. Israelis in northern Israel have already fled south. How did the Israelis and Lebanese get here? This latest round began on October 7, 2023. Hamas attacked civil society in southern Israel. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed and around 250 civilians and soldiers taken hostage. A few hours later, Israel launched a powerful attack against Hamas in Gaza. The warfare has led to enormous suffering for the entire population of Gaza. To show support and solidarity with Hamas, Hezbollah began attacking Israel from Lebanon. In the Middle East it is said that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”. Hamas and Hezbollah differ, but agree that Israel must be fought. Hezbollah is a powerful Shiite militia, heavily armed and supported by Iran. Hamas is Sunni Muslim and has received support from Qatar, but also Iran. Hamas is much smaller than Hezbollah. The Lebanese Shia militia is a far stronger opponent for Israel. ON THE RUN: Thousands of families from southern Lebanon fled north as Israel began to attack. This family has come to Beirut. Photo: AP Why is the escalation happening now? The latest escalation for now began with thousands of pagers belonging to Hezbollah members exploding in a cunning attack attributed to the IDF and Mossad. Israel’s president has denied that the country is behind it. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has equally called it a declaration of war from Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for his part, wants to move the approximately 60,000 Israelis who were evacuated from northern Israel last year back to their homes. For it to be safe, Hezbollah’s attacks must be stopped. POWERFUL LEADER: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech last week that Israel has declared war on Hezbollah. Nasrallah has been living in a bunker for years as he is high on the list of men Israel wants to liquidate. Photo: AFP How long have Hezbollah and Israel been enemies? The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is not new. It began in the early 1980s, when the IDF occupied large parts of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was founded with Iran’s help to fight Israel inside Lebanon. In the year 2000, after 20 years of occupation, Israel pulled out – something Hezbollah cashed in as a victory. The summer of 2006 brought another war. Israel attacked targets throughout Lebanon after Hezbollah killed and kidnapped several Israeli soldiers. After 34 days, the war ended with an armistice. THE IRON DOME: The Israel Air Force’s most important weapon is called the Iron Dome. Here the system launches its rockets to destroy Hezbollah’s incoming rockets. Photo: AP What does Israel want? Prime Minister Netanyahu and the IDF want to push Hezbollah north towards the Litani River, approximately 30 kilometers north of the border. By turning pagers and walkie-talkies into bombs, Israel is also waging psychological warfare. The goal is to cut the lines of communication within the Hezbollah organization. But also to spread paranoia, fear and terror throughout the organization and in Lebanon. To emphasize how well Israel has control over Lebanon’s infrastructure, the IDF has sent landline warnings to Lebanese saying they should evacuate immediately. The question is whether the IDF will again go in with soldiers on the ground. Israel possibly wants to negotiate with Hezbollah for an agreement in the long term. What will Netanyahu achieve? Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to hold on to power, apparently at any cost. He is charged with corruption, fraud and breach of trust. He risks being sent to prison if he loses his job. He wants to avoid that at all costs. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis want to get rid of Netanyahu because they believe he is corrupt and not doing enough to get the hostages out. ANGRY AT NETANYAHU: A lone protester wearing a Netanyahu mask among symbolic coffins. Time is running out for the hostages. According to Israeli media, around 100 hostages are in Gaza, of whom around 50 are still alive. But now everyone’s eyes are on the war with Hezbollah in the north. Photo: AFP But by attacking Hezbollah hard, the prime minister is strengthening himself at home. The war in the north overshadows the war in the south. The hostage family’s loud demands and the demonstrations for a ceasefire and hostage and prisoner exchange are drowned out or silenced. What can the superpower USA do? President Joe Biden has been very supportive and generous towards Israel after the brutal Hamas attack on October 7. Israel has received military and political support. But Israel’s leader has not given much back. On 5 November there are elections in the USA. In recent decades, Netanyahu has openly supported the Republicans. When Donald Trump was president, Benjamin Netanyahu was allowed to do as he pleased. Netanyahu probably avoids signing a cease-fire in Gaza before the election, because he does not want to give the Democrats Kamala Harris and Joe Biden this victory in the election campaign, believes Thomas Friedman in The New York Times. He believes Netanyahu is hoping for a new term with Trump. Thus Israel’s wars continue in the south and in the north. What will it take for Iran to be drawn in? Attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities has been high on Netanyahu’s wish list for several years. But the US has put its foot down. There are several questions that remain unanswered for now: Will Netanyahu give the order to bomb the nuclear facilities now? If Israel does, will Hezbollah and Iran feel compelled to respond? Is that when they will use their long-range missiles that can reach Tel Aviv and Jerusalem? Iran has not wanted to get involved in a major regional war until now. When Israeli intelligence killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran while Iran was about to inaugurate its new president, it was seen as a great humiliation and a serious provocation. But five weeks later, Iran has still not responded to the provocation. ALLIED WITH IRAN: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in July 2000. They meet shortly after Israel pulled out of Lebanon, which they saw as a victory. But since the 2006 war, Nasrallah has not appeared in public. Photo: AFP How can the situation be calmed down? The key is to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. It will be able to stop the war in the south and in the north. If Hamas agrees to a deal and gets a few hundred Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for the release of the hostages, the guns will be able to stop. Then Hezbollah no longer has any reason to attack. Published 24.09.2024, at 18.54
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What can stop the war between Israel and Hezbollah? – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
