Keeping the world below 1.5 degrees of warming is the central goal of the Paris Agreement. In the past, scientists have warned that it could happen somewhere in the 2030s. Now several researchers are warning that it could happen as early as next year. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) writes that there is a 50 percent risk that we will experience a year of over 1.5 degrees during the period 2022–2026. This is up from a risk of 10 per cent in the period 2017–2021. People fleeing the flood in Pakistan in 2022. – Persistent drought in East Africa, record rain in Pakistan and record heat waves in China and Europe affected tens of millions of people, contributed to food insecurity and mass migration and cost billions of dollars in loss and damage, says WMO chief Taalas. Photo: FIDA HUSSAIN / AFP “El Niño” to blame The reason why scientists fear new temperature records is that the world is now probably moving into a period with the weather phenomenon El Niño. For the past three years, the world has been in a period of the opposite, the La Niña weather phenomenon. It ended in March. La Niña has pulled down the surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean. This has led to colder weather in the world than it would otherwise have been. Nevertheless, the last three years have been among the eight warmest we have ever measured. El Niño is the opposite. This leads to higher surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This in turn leads to higher average temperatures worldwide. If we get a strong El Niño, the warming of the globe will get a “boost” both this year and next year. – 2024 will probably be the hottest year globally that has ever been recorded, says Josef Ludescher at the climate research institute PIK in Potsdam in Germany to CNN. Facts about El Niño Weather phenomenon that occurs naturally every 2–7 years when the surface water in parts of the Pacific Ocean becomes abnormally warm. Since the phenomenon most often reaches its peak at Christmas time, fishermen in South America have for centuries called it “El Niño” – “the little boy” in Spanish, a reference to the baby Jesus. The opposite phenomenon, that parts of the Pacific become unusually cold, has in recent times been named “La Niña”, “the little girl”. Often leads to more rainfall in South America, but drought in Southeast Asia, Australia and parts of Africa. Strong El Niños can also temporarily increase the temperature of the earth. In 2016, a global temperature record was set as a result of a strong El Niño combined with man-made global warming. (Sources: Meteorological Institute, NTB) Over 1.5 in many places A stuffed polar bear in a canteen in Ny Ålesund on Svalbard. The archipelago is one of the places in the world that has experienced the most warming. Scientists fear that in the future polar bears will only be seen in museums. Photo: LISI NIESNER / Reuters There are big differences in how big the warming has been around the world. 1.5 degrees is an average for the entire globe. On land, we have already passed 1.5 degrees, writes Reuters. Above sea level, the rise is less. In Europe there is around 2 degrees warming and in the Arctic around 3 degrees. – The rise gets stronger the further north you go, says climate researcher at the Potsdam Institute Johan Rockström. Measured over ten years From a purely scientific point of view, it will not be considered that the world has reached 1.5 degrees of warming, even if the figures show it for 2024. The reason is that the researchers look at the average for several of the last years when describing global warming. – A single year above 1.5 degrees does not mean that we have broken the iconic limit in the Paris Agreement. But it means that we have come closer to a point where you can be over 1.5 over a longer period, says Leon Hermanson from the British weather forecast. Temperature in the world since 1880 compared to the average in the period 1991-2020 +0.5°C compared to normal? Click for explanation normal temperature18801900192019401960198020002020 Go to news’s Climate Status Why are most years blue and colder than normal? This is because all years are now compared to a new normal, that is, the average of weather in the 30-year period 1991-2020. These 30 years have been unusually warm. Most other years are therefore colder than normal. Until recently, researchers used a normal period that ran from 1961-1990. In these years it was relatively cold. It’s been quite a while since the 1960s and the new normal allows us to compare the weather with the climate (normal) that people actually experience today. The normal period is determined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and is used in all countries . In this way, we can compare the weather in Norway with other countries and we can measure changes across the globe. How can you calculate one temperature for the whole world? This number is the result of a complicated calculation. Measurements are made with thermometers both on land and on the sea surface (at sea the thermometers are attached to buoys). In some places the thermometers are close together, in other places there is a long distance between them. Using a statistical method, the researchers are able to give the measurements different weights, so that all areas are equally important: The data used in this graph comes from the American NOAA. They have divided the globe into squares of 5° x 5° and calculate one temperature for each square. Then they can again work their way up to a global figure, for each month or for each year. They can also make figures for the temperature only over the ocean or only over land, or for the northern and southern hemispheres. The lines at the poles are smaller than along the equator due to the curvature of the globe. The researchers also take this into account in their calculations. Others, such as NASA or the Hadley Centre, calculate in slightly different ways than NOAA. Therefore, there are often small differences between the various data sets. In any case, the trend they show is the same: since 1880, the world has become warmer. WMO: Record high sea level rise in 2022 Melting of glaciers and sea level rise reached new record levels in 2022. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is presenting its report on the state of the climate in 2022. – The sea ice in Antarctica was at the lowest level that has been measured. In Europe, the melting of the glaciers literally blew the scale, says WMO chief Petteri Taalas. Sea level rise in the period 2013–2022 was 4.62 millimeters a year, or almost half a centimeter. That is twice as much as for the period 1993–2002. It is just as dramatic for the glaciers. The WMO writes that 6.3 percent of the ice in the glaciers in Switzerland disappeared in 2022. That is the highest that has ever been measured. – The melting and sea level rise will continue for thousands of years, says Taalas. The organization writes that the heat waves in Europe led to 15,000 deaths in 2022. The Rhone glacier near Gletsch in 2015 and 2022. Parts of the glacier are covered with blankets to prevent it from melting. AFP – Has the seriousness begun to sink in? Secretary-General of the WWF World Wide Fund for Nature Karoline Andaur says that the warnings are now coming in on a continuous basis. – One report with more gloomy findings than the other. One would think that the seriousness has begun to sink in? she says. She says that emissions are not falling quickly enough, and that the changeover is not happening to the extent necessary to turn the tide. – We know what is needed, we have the solutions, what we lack is political will. We must stop pointing fingers at each other, take responsibility and start delivering on our commitments. Not in seven years, not next year, but today, says Andaur.
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Warns that the world could become 1.5 degrees warmer already next year – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
