When the police raided the 19-year-old’s house last week, they found chemicals, machetes and equipment to make bombs. Austrian police believe the teenager planned a suicide attack outside a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna. A 17- and 18-year-old have been arrested in the same case, while a 15-year-old was questioned. What the authorities believe was a terrorist plot fits into a picture several experts and security services are now warning against. Sharpened threat When the terrorist group IS was defeated in 2019 and lost its last territories in Syria and Iraq, many in Europe hoped that the fight against them was a stage covered. In the mid-2010s, bloody IS attacks had shaken cities such as Paris, Manchester and Brussels, but from 2017 the arrows were pointing in the right direction. MOURNING: People comfort each other outside the Bataclan concert venue in Paris. 130 people were killed in a series of attacks in November 2015. Photo: CHRISTIAN HARTMANN / Reuters Since then, the threat from extreme Islamists has received less attention. The war in Ukraine, high tension in the Middle East and the threat from China and Russia have been more important. In recent years, many have thought that the terrorist threat has disappeared, says BI professor and chief researcher Petter Nesser at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI). – But for those of us who follow the threat from day to day, we see that there is a high level of activity. The researcher has for a number of years mapped terror and terrorist plots in Western Europe. Now he sees a disturbing development. – The threat from extreme Islamists in Europe today, I would say, has intensified. There are more incidents and increased severity, says Nesser. See graph further down in the case. He highlights several trends: Teenagers are recruited into very serious terrorist activity Women are more involved than before Attackers in Europe are controlled remotely from Afghanistan and other war zones EXPERT: Petter Nesser is chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute. He also sat on the government-appointed Extremism Commission. Photo: ISMAIL BURAK AKKAN / news IS-K is the talk of the town At the end of July, the Security Council received the latest report from the expert group which follows and describes the threat from IS on behalf of the UN. – The terrorist threat has increased in Europe. The member states consider that IS-K represents the greatest external terrorist threat to the continent, the report states. The Islamic State in Khorasan (IS-K) is the regional branch of IS in Afghanistan. IS-K and the Taliban are bitter enemies, but the Taliban have not been able to keep the group under control. They have carried out major attacks in Afghanistan, Iran and Moscow. BRUTAL: In March, 140 people were killed when jihadists shot through the Crocus concert arena and set it on fire. Photo: STRINGER / AFP Terrorist researcher Petter Nesser says that IS-K has been a “talking box” in the intelligence and research community. – Recently, there have been incidents that make the concern about the group appear to be correct, says Nesser. He tells about revealed terrorist plans in both Germany and France which are directly linked to IS-K. – We see remote control of terrorists, where you can have people who sit far away in a conflict area and simply control terrorists who have been recruited over the internet. Remote control of terrorists seems to be the modus operandi for IS-K, he says, and cites a plot in Germany as an example. Two men are said to have been directed by IS-K in Afghanistan to plan a revenge attack in Sweden, as punishment for burning the Koran. INCREASE: Number of jihadist attacks and averted attacks in Western Europe from 1994 to 1 June 2024. The yellow bar shows averted attacks, the red one carried out. (Source: Jihadi Plots in Europe Dataset, FFI) Photo: Jihadi Plots in Europe Dataset (JPED) / FFI Security services must keep an eye on more The war on the Gaza Strip is highlighted as one reason for the heightened threat picture. In the United States, FBI Director Christopher Wray has said that the threats against the United States are at “a whole new level” after the Hamas attack in Israel on October 7 and the subsequent war. Petter Nesser points to this, as well as the fact that IS-K seems to have focused more on international terrorism. In addition, European security services have a lot of other things to keep an eye on. In an article in the journal CTC Sentinel, he writes that terror has gone from being the main priority to becoming one of many threats. – Does the fact that the security services are more thinly spread have anything to say about the heightened threat you describe? – Yes, it has. When you have to monitor a complex threat picture, it will necessarily give some more leeway to extreme actors. – Flashing red again When CIA veteran Michael Morell described the threat picture in an article in Foreign Affairs this summer, big words were used. CIA top: Michael Morell was the one who briefed President George W. Bush daily, among other things, in the period before and after 11 September. Photo: Evan Vucci / Ap “The Terrorism Warning Lights Are Blinking Red Again” was the title of the article, in which Morell and academic Graham Allison wrote that the image today is reminiscent of the time before September 11, 2001. – I share the concern that the terrorist image now looks very serious out, says Nesser. He highlights the mix of known threats, influence operations from Russia designed to contribute to radicalization and the danger that the conflict between Iran and Israel will also have an effect in Europe. – That things flash red, that seems descriptive from my point of view. Published 13.08.2024, at 15.55
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Warns that the terror alarm is flashing red again – news Norway – Overview of news from various parts of the country
