EU summits are a strange mixture of desolate waiting and intense stress. Mostly, it is completely impossible to know when there will be waiting and when there will be stress. The flow of information appears as an archaic ritual: Imagine just under 1,000 journalists sitting at long desks in a large, glass-covered atrium. We sit there for hours, without direct access to what is going on inside the meeting. Once in a while, a diplomat, an adviser from the EU institutions, or a spokesperson from one of the member states comes out. The person in question is immediately surrounded. RING DANCE: Journalists ring for a spokesman who may or may not have concrete information about what is going on at the negotiating table. Photo: Simen Ekern Then he begins to speak, always in such a low voice that only the lucky ones in the first ring can hear properly. Then it is necessary to circle around, looking for a place where the advocate’s voice carries. A round dance to hear new things from the negotiating table. Something, anything, something we can use. Any concrete detail is like a small prize or appreciation for the effort. MEETING PROBLEMS: Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban is causing headaches for the rest of the EU’s heads of state and government. Photo: AP If Europe falters When the last summit of the year got underway last week, the atmosphere was tense right from the start, as there was so much at stake. The EU countries’ heads of state and government should try to get the bank through a massive, long-term support package for Ukraine. And they should decide whether the time has come to start formal negotiations on Ukrainian membership in the EU. These are questions of enormous geopolitical importance, and the EU leaders also set the list quite high when they talked about the meeting in advance. NO WALKTHROUGH: Denmark’s prime minister warned against an unsupported Europe at the EU summit last week. Photo: Reuters “The most fateful summit since the war in Ukraine started,” said Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. “If Europe falters now – what is left then?”, asked Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. If Europe was going to falter, it was because of a huge rock in its shoe. His name is Viktor Orban, he is Prime Minister of Hungary, and had once again succeeded in getting a summit to be mostly about himself. He did not want any support package for Ukraine. And in any case, he did not want to talk about Ukrainian membership in the EU. That, Orbán had previously told the French weekly Le Point, he saw as a “joke”. Among other things, because Ukraine is “one of the world’s most corrupt countries”, as he put it. Viktor Orbán knows a thing or two about such rankings: he himself leads the EU’s most corrupt country, according to Transparency International. But let’s not argue about who is the most corrupt. The point was that Orbán would not be part of the Ukraine plans that the other member states were talking about. He seemed eager and confident when I saw him walking down the red carpet at the entrance to the Europa building in Brussels. MAN OF THE DAY: Viktor Orban promised to stand his ground before the last EU summit of the year got underway on 14 December. Photo: Simen Ekern – There is no reason to start negotiations on Ukrainian membership now, he repeated. Negotiating attire The other countries did not agree on that. But it looked difficult when the meeting started, and it looked difficult many hours later, when a couple of messengers from the negotiations finally came out to the journalists. I got a place a little way out in the cluster around a tall man from Germany’s delegation, and tried to listen. – It is completely locked. We will probably stay here for a few days, he said. – Orbán is a very skilled negotiator. They had been talking about the crisis package for Ukraine for several hours, and now they had just started on the question of Ukraine’s EU membership, he said. There was not much more to say, except for one thing: Chancellor Olaf Scholz had thrown away his jacket and tie and put on a sweater, he said with a serious expression. This meant seriousness, we understood. Fortunately, a colleague was ready with a follow-up question. – Is it a Christmas sweater like that?, she asked. – No. Plain sweater. Out in the hallway Ok. Scholz in a regular jumper, it was something, but not much to write home about. We had to wait for another day or two, and soon it was Dagsrevyen. I would have to say much of the same thing as I had said in the broadcasts all day, it seemed: Enormously important decisions must be made. No sign of agreement. TACTICIANS: Was it German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who sent Viktor Orban into the hallway? Did they hatch the plan together? Photo: Reuters Then, half an hour before the Dagsrevyen, it slammed. “The European Council has decided to open membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova,” wrote the Council’s president, Charles Michel on X. “A clear signal of hope for your people and our continent.” You can say that. What was completely impossible half an hour ago had thus happened. But how had they convinced Orbán? Gave him money? Sweat in your pants? “Orban was not present during the decision,” said the president’s spokeswoman. He had simply gone out. PROBLEM OF EXPLANATION: What actually happened when Viktor Orban left the room? An Irish and a Norwegian correspondent try to explain, but nobody knows. Photo: Jorne Van Damme / Headline Later it emerged that this was planned, possibly following an idea from Federal Chancellor Scholz, the man in the sweater. It seemed like a smart solution to the problem that all EU countries must agree when major decisions are to be made. The EU leaders could congratulate each other on the historic decision. Orbán could return home to Hungary and say he was against it, without having to take the brunt of blocking the question. The Belgian Prime Minister thought that Orbán was making a big deal out of the fact that he had “resisted”. – Either you can veto, or you can shut up, he said on his way out of the meeting. – I guess I shouldn’t have said that, he added. Best horse The fact is, in any case, that the creative solution in no way solves the EU’s Orbán challenges. The Hungarian Prime Minister himself has said that he has listed 70 future occasions where he can still block Ukrainian EU membership. Orbán’s critics believe he engages in blackmail in order to build his illiberal democracy with EU money. Others believe that he also speaks for Putin when he claims that he is the voice of the Hungarian people: the Czech Minister for Europe stated last weekend that he simply sees Orbán as a Trojan horse. In such a situation, it is, for some, tempting to throw Hungary out. As the rules are now, however, that will not work. Moreover, it would be a huge defeat, not least for the opposition in Hungary, if such a process were to be started. Orban’s position is not a little reminiscent of the one Turkish President Erdogan has taken in NATO: Both are exploring the limits of what one can demand in order to agree to what the others would like, whether it is Swedish membership here or Ukrainian membership there. IT’S A DEAL: Erdogan and Orban find the tone. Photo: AP Together, however, they are good at making agreements that both are happy with. When the two met in Budapest right after the EU summit, it was a meeting that suggested a new spirit and a good atmosphere between the autocrats. They were also generous with each other: Erdogan got a Hungarian horse, Orbán got a Turkish car. Orbán thought it was the best deal he had ever made, as he got 435 horsepower in exchange for one. Thus speaks a man who has become a master of international political horse-trading. For the other EU leaders, it is probably just a matter of throwing away the jacket, saddle up and preparing for blocking, training and blackmail to become part of the EU’s meeting activities in the coming year as well.
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Viktor Orban and the battle for the EU’s soul – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
