– It clearly gives the next campaigns an extra edge. That’s what news’s football expert Kristoffer Løkberg says about what’s in store when Norway ends the 2024 national team year with two games against Slovenia (away) and Kazakhstan (home) on Thursday and Sunday. They mean more to Norway’s World Cup chances than most people have probably realised. The next international match against Slovenia could be decisive for whether Norway ends up in seeding group 2 or 3 when the WC qualifying groups are drawn on 13 December. Why is this important? – Can cause a lot of trouble The seeding can in fact contribute to Norway having either an affordable or a very difficult path to the WC through the ordinary qualifiers. – Above all, there is a higher level of the team in seeding group two than three, so it will be a clear advantage to know that we cannot get into the qualifying pool with the team in pool two. It can create much more trouble for us, says Løkberg. The seeding pools right now Seeding pool 1: France Spain England Belgium Portugal Netherlands Italy Germany Croatia Switzerland Denmark Austria Seeding pool 2: Ukraine Turkey Sweden Wales Poland Hungary Serbia Slovakia Greece Romania Czech Republic Norway Seeding pool 3: Scotland Slovenia Ireland Albania Finland Georgia North Macedonia Iceland Bosnia Montenegro Israel Bulgaria Seeding pool 4:LuxembourgArmeniaKosovoKazakhstanAzerbaijanEstoniaCyprusLatviaFaroe IslandsLithuaniaSeeding pool 5:MoldovaMaltaAndorraGibraltarLiechtensteiSan Marino Norway is currently the worst-ranked team in seeding group 2. Slovenia is second best ranked in seeding group 3 and has a hope of usurping Norway’s place. These are the ranking points for the two teams before the next match: Norway: 1473.5Slovenia: 1459.59 The international football association Fifa’s intricate ranking system is set up so that you both gain and lose points based on a formula. Read more at Fifa here. If Norway loses against Slovenia in Ljubljana, Solbakken’s crew, based on news’s calculations, ends up with these points: Slovenia: 1467.29Norway: 1465.80 Slovenia will thus pass Norway and be seeded in pool 2. But in the last round of the National League, Norway plays at home against Kazakhstan at the same time as Slovenia is going out in a tough match against Austria away from home. Most people think that Slovenia will lose to Austria, while Norway will beat Kazakhstan. If that happens, we will end up with these points: Norway: 1469.60Slovenia: 1461.55 Thus, Norway is barely ahead of Slovenia and grabs a place in seeding group 2 when the WC qualifiers are drawn. But what if Slovenia draws against Austria? Then it looks like this: Norway: 1469.60 Slovenia: 1469.05 In the event of a Slovenian draw against Austria, Norway must therefore give up a point against Kazakhstan in order for seeding pool 2 to break. Football World Cup 2026 Photo: AFP Date: 11 June – 19 July 2026 Number of participating countries: 48 Number of matches: 104 (increase from 64 at the last World Cup) The teams will be divided into 12 groups of 4 teams, with the 2 best in each group and the 8 best third places advance to the play-offs. The World Cup is played in 16 cities in Canada, Mexico and the USA: USA (11): Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, SeattleMexico (3): Guadalajara, Mexico City , MonterreyCanada (2): Toronto, Vancouver The final will be played in New York on 19 July 2026. Scotland a wildcard But there is also a third team that can enter the battle for the important seeding position. If we take as a starting point that Norway ends up with around 1469 points, which requires at least two points in total in the matches against Slovenia and Kazakhstan, Scotland in particular has a certain chance of sneaking into seeding pool 2. Then they still have to take at least four points in the last two matches against Croatia and Poland. Difficult, but not impossible. The Scots finish on 1472 points if they beat Croatia and then draw against Poland, and on 1470 points if they draw against Croatia and beat Poland in the last game. With three points from the two games, the Scots will end up with 1465 points, which is then only good enough to pass Norway if Ståle Solbakken’s men only take one point in the last two games. – We have everything in our own hands If Scotland were to unexpectedly win both of the remaining games, Norway must win both of their games to stay ahead of Scotland. – Fortunately, we have everything in our own hands, and can put all doubts aside by just beating Slovenia away on Thursday. When we also know the importance of it for the group in the National League, then it is of course the only focus for Ståle and co., says Løkberg. – If we lose, on the other hand, it will almost sum up Norwegian national football in the last twenty years that we have to follow Scotland and Slovenia during this national team break, and hope they fail in their games, he adds. Solbakken: – It is important Ståle Solbakken says this when asked by news about the importance of avoiding seeding level 3 in the upcoming draw: – That is a good point. It is important. Marcus Holmgren Pedersen states to news that the seeding can have a lot to say for the WC chances. – There is a big difference. If you are second seed, you face one less good opponent, so it is important, he says. Published 14.11.2024, at 10.58 Updated 14.11.2024, at 10.59
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