“After crossing a river, you should get far away from it.” In the legendary book The Art of War, the Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu warns against the decisive role of rivers in conflict. 2,500 years later, the words are no less true. – The terrain has always had enormous importance in warfare. And if we look at Ukraine, it’s mostly flat. Then there are a number of rivers, which are difficult to cross. Much is about damaging or blowing up bridges, explains Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen. Lieutenant Colonel and head teacher at the Staff School, Geir Hågen Karlsen. Photo: Lokman Ghorbani / news In Putin’s war in Ukraine, too, much revolves around controlling the waterways. At the time of writing, large parts of the front lines lie by three rivers: the Dnipro in the south and the Donets and Oskil in the east. The Dnipro, Donets and Oskil rivers in Ukraine. The Dnipro is Europe’s fourth longest river, and the Ukrainian part is more than a thousand kilometers long. If Ukraine is to achieve its goal of liberating the entire country, it must first overcome these two obstacles. INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news (Updated 17.09.2022) INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news (Updated 17.09.2022) South towards Kherson The Ukrainian offensive against Kherson is taking place on the north-western banks of the Dnipro River. It gives Ukraine an advantage by being able to more easily supply and reinforce its own soldiers. Graphic: INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news (Updated 17.09.2022) According to The Institute for the Study of War, fierce fighting has been going on in southern Ukraine in recent days, against the big city of Kherson. Russia currently controls an area north of the Dnipro River and Kherson, which is separated from the rest of southern Ukraine and Crimea. – Russia has around 25,000 soldiers in this area, and it is a very big challenge to supply them, says Hågen Karlsen. In mid-August there were reports that Ukrainian forces had managed to destroy two large bridges, which connected Kherson with the other side of the river. This means that Russian forces depend on supplies via ferries, floating bridges, and a bridge over a dam in Nova Kakhovka. Houses surrounded by water after Ukrainian forces flooded an area to drive Russian forces away from Kyiv in April. Photo: NICOLAS GARCIA / AFP It is not the first time that Ukrainian forces have used the Dnipro River. During the start of the invasion, they used the river’s many channels and locks around Kyiv to isolate and flood the areas where Russian forces were located. Russian forces patrol the dam across the Dnipro in Nova Kakhovka, east of Kherson, in May. Photo: OLGA MALTSEVA / AFP Dam attack A sign that the Russians may be under severe pressure is that they are increasingly attacking civilian targets. This is claimed by the British Ministry of Defense in a statement. Russian authorities have not commented on these claims, but have previously denied that they deliberately attack civilian targets. The Russians have tried to use the rivers to their advantage. Heavy damage to a dam outside Zelenskyi’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih after a Russian missile attack. Photo: UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SER / Reuters On Wednesday, they fired missiles at a dam in President Zelensky’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih. This led to more than a hundred houses being flooded. Thousands lost access to drinking water. – The Russian cowards resort to war against the infrastructure and our civilians. Russia is a terrorist state, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on Twitter after the attack. – It cannot be ruled out that there will be new such attacks on dams, says Lieutenant Colonel Hågen Karlsen. If Russia attacks larger dams, the consequences could be catastrophic. That was how Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist forces in China struck back against the Japanese invasion forces in 1938. By bursting a dam on the Yellow River, they drove the Japanese back. At the same time, it is estimated that hundreds of thousands lost their lives. The area affected by flooding after the attack on a dam at Huayuankou in China in 1938 was several thousand square kilometers. It is estimated that hundreds of thousands of people lost their lives. Photo: Steven Liu Yi / Wikimedia Commons East towards Sievjerodonetsk According to British intelligence, Russia has now formed a defensive line between the eastern bank of the Oskil River and the town of Svatove. The transport route from Belgorod to Sievjerodonetsk runs east of the Donets and Oskil rivers, which form some of the most important front lines in the Ukraine war. Svatove is a hub on this route. Ukraine’s offensive in northern Donbass against Svatove and Sievjerodonetsk. Graphics: INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news (Updated 17.09.2022) This is a key area for the Russians. Svatove is located on one of the best logistics lines to Belgorod in Russia. Should the Ukrainians manage to capture Svatove, Russia will struggle to supply its forces in Sievjerodonetsk. If that happens, control over the entire north-eastern Ukraine may break. A destroyed railway bridge lies partly under water on the Donets River in eastern Ukraine in April 2022. Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka / AP The challenge is therefore primarily to cross Oskil and Donets. – It will take some time before we see progress in Eastern Ukraine, says Hågen Karlsen. He says it is important that we do not underestimate the Russians, and that, despite Ukraine’s recent counter-offensive, it looks like it will be a protracted war.
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Ukraine’s great water war – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
