Next month it will be one year since Russia went to full-scale war against neighboring Ukraine. There is now marginal progress in some places on the front lines, while Russian attacks against civilian targets, especially the power supply, dominate. According to defense analyst Per Erik Solli, the war is in an intermediate phase. – The progress for the Ukrainians was quite great, but late last autumn it stopped, says Solli to news. Photo: INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news (Updated 02.01.2023) Ukrainian offensive Solli expects more movement on the ground as spring approaches. Exactly when is difficult to predict. While there is a standstill in the ground war, Ukraine is getting time to introduce new, Western equipment and train its forces. – I believe in a Ukrainian offensive, and have doubts whether the Russians will be able to carry out the same. The best the Ukrainians can do is to do the opposite of what the Russians expect. The aim is to be unpredictable, says Solli. Defense analyst Per Erik Solli. Photo: Benjamin Fredriksen / news If Ukraine wants to launch an offensive, it should happen while it is still cold, according to professor at the Norwegian Defense Staff School, Tormod Heier. – The areas are large and open. When they freeze to ice, it is easier to use tracked forces and maneuver the areas, than in the spring when the tele thaws. Ukraine must get ahead of the Russians, in order to keep up the momentum and avoid Russia getting time to train its forces, he says to news. Ukrainian soldiers sit on a T-80 tank at an unknown location in Ukraine. The picture is from 29 December. Photo: SAMEER AL-DOUMY / AFP Three fronts The war is now unfolding on three fronts at the same time, Heier points out. This is how he summarizes the most important goals of the Russian strategy: At home: Putin must keep the population under control. If the Russians resist, they will face severe penalties. Thus, Putin is able to gather soldiers without it leading to large demonstrations. In Ukraine: The Russians, on the other hand, are struggling to win areas. They are met by Ukrainian forces with modern weapons and higher motivation. Towards the West: The Russians are trying to break down the solidarity the US and NATO have with Ukraine. If Western arms aid to Ukraine decreases or stops, it will benefit Russia. An official collects fragments from a missile in Kyiv, Ukraine on December 31. Photo: -][SERGEI CHUZAVKOV / AFP But Russian President Vladimir Putin is using time to help, according to the professor. – Over time, cohesion in the West can crack due to the economic situation, says Heier. It is just as important to make progress on this front as it is on the battlefield in Ukraine. – War weariness is starting to spread in the USA and the West. Time is one of Putin’s most important tools. Professor at the Norwegian Defense Staff School, Tormod Heier. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB More challenges The USA is the largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine. Since last February, they have given 19.3 billion dollars. The most important thing for Ukraine is that the US manages to keep the western countries together, according to Heier. – I don’t think there will be a truce, but it could be that the war gradually begins to slow down, because both parties are exhausted, he says. Defense analyst Solli points out that Russian forces have several challenges. First, they don’t have enough personnel. In addition, they have problems training them. Second, the weapons – of which they have a limited number – are not good enough.
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– Ukraine must get ahead of the Russians – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
