What countries is President Trump visiting during his Middle East trip? How is the humanitarian crisis in Gaza affecting Israel’s military actions? What are the implications of Trump’s focus on energy-rich nations for U.S. diplomacy? Why is Trump’s decision not to visit Israel during this trip significant? What challenges does Iran face in its negotiations regarding its nuclear program?
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — On his trip this week to the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, though his most pressing regional challenges concern two other countries: Israel and Iran.
After ending a ceasefire two months ago, Israel is intensifying the war in the Gaza Strip, where a blockade on food, medicine, and other supplies is worsening a humanitarian crisis. And Iran, an enemy of Israel and a rival of Saudi Arabia, stands on the cusp of being able to develop nuclear weapons.
Yet Trump will focus his attention on three energy-rich nations home to existing or planned Trump-branded real estate projects — places where he aims to leverage American economic interests to do what he personally revels in: making business deals.
“This is his happy place,” said Jon B. Alterman, a senior vice president at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. “His hosts will be generous and hospitable. They’ll be keen to make deals. They’ll flatter him and not criticize him. And they’ll treat his family members as past and future business partners.”
But Trump won’t be able to avoid altogether diplomacy on Gaza or Iran: The Gulf countries hosting him are also interested in easing the regional tensions that emanate from these two places.
“Trump can easily score a win by reassuring them of America’s strategic commitment to the region, demonstrating consistent messaging, and generally rising above the fray,” analysts Elizabeth Dent and Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote Friday.
Trump doesn’t plan to visit Israel
By not scheduling a trip to Israel during his first trip to the region during his second term as president, Trump is reinforcing a feeling in Israel that its interests may not be top of mind for him.
That sense intensified last week, when Trump announced that the U.S. would halt its strikes on the Houthis, an Iran-backed rebel group in Yemen, which agreed to stop its attacks on American vessels in the Red Sea.
The Houthis’ attacks on Israel did not appear to be covered by that deal, which came as a surprise to Israel, according to an Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive diplomatic issue. Days after the deal between the U.S. and the Houthis — and despite a two-day Israeli assault on Houthi targets — a missile from Yemen again set off air raid sirens in Israel. Then Israel’s military warned Sunday that Houthi-controlled ports in Yemen could be targeted again.
Trump’s move to launch negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program also jarred Israel, which fears a deal that would not be strict enough to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon or rein in its support for regional militant groups.
Israel had hoped that Trump might provide military assistance in any strike it carried out on the country’s nuclear facilities — an action that is unrealistic so long as there are negotiations or if they reach a deal.
That has raised questions in Israel over Trump’s reliability on other major issues, like a long-sought normalization deal with Saudi Arabia as part of any defense pact the administration may reach with the kingdom. Saudi Arabia has said it would only normalize ties with Israel in exchange for significant concessions for the Palestinians toward statehood, something the current Israeli government is unlikely to agree to.
Israel has said it will hold off on expanding the war in Gaza until after Trump’s visit, leaving the window open for a new ceasefire deal to materialize. And while Hamas and Trump announced that the last living American hostage in Gaza, Edan Alexander, will be freed as part of efforts to establish a ceasefire, it is not clear what involvement Israel had in that deal.
Still, Trump has given Israel free rein in Gaza and, like Israel, blames Hamas for any civilian casualties.
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee played down any significance to Trump’s decision not to visit the country, saying in interviews with Israeli media that his visit to the region was focused on economic issues.
No major breakthrough in Iran nuclear talks
For Iran, much depends on the talks it is having with the U.S. over its rapidly advancing nuclear program. A reported two-month deadline to reach a deal likely has passed as U.S. officials signal America may push for Iran to give up enrichment entirely — something Tehran has insisted is a red line.
Although four rounds of talks mediated by Oman have not led to a major breakthrough, they have gone into the so-called “expert level” — meaning specifics about any possible accord likely have been discussed.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled over the weekend to both Saudi Arabia and Qatar ahead of Trump’s trip. Iran likely is trying to pass messages to the U.S. while signaling its interest in continuing the talks. Iranian officials increasingly threaten to pursue a nuclear weapon, while Trump and Israel have both threatened to strike Iranian nuclear sites if a deal isn’t reached.
The Islamic Republic is running out of options. Its economy has cratered since Trump in 2018 unilaterally pulled America out of their initial nuclear deal with world powers. And Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” — a group of aligned nations and militant groups, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon — has been mauled since the Israel-Hamas war began.
Iran also faces internal political pressure, including from women increasingly refusing to wear the state-mandated headscarf, or hijab.
There is one thing that unites most Iranians, however — pride over the Persian Gulf. Trump’s consideration of having America uniformly call the body of water the “Arabian Gulf” instead drew fierce criticism from across the country.
“This gulf has always been the Persian Gulf — and it will forever remain the Persian Gulf,” Tehran’s Friday prayer leader Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami said.
Trump’s 2017 trip still haunts the Gulf
After starting his trip in Saudi Arabia, Trump will then go to Qatar, which recently announced plans for a Trump-branded development there.
This tight embrace of the president comes after his first trip to the Middle East — in 2017 — apparently sparked what became known as the Qatar crisis. That is when Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE boycotted Qatar over its support of Islamists in the region and its ties to Iran, with which it shares a massive offshore natural gas field.
The dispute grew so serious that Kuwait’s ruling emir at the time suggested on a visit to the White House there could have been “military action.”
Trump initially criticized Qatar as having “historically been a funder of terrorism at a very high level” at the start of the boycott. Less than a year later, he praised Qatar and rolled that back. The four nations ended their boycott just before Biden took office.
Then on Sunday, President Donald Trump said he was ready to accept a luxury Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet as a gift from the ruling family of Qatar during his trip to the Middle East. U.S. officials say it could be converted into a potential presidential aircraft — which would amount to the president accepting an astonishingly valuable gift from a foreign government.
With crude oil prices trading just over $60 a barrel — lows not seen since 2021 — one major criticism Trump has for the Gulf states isn’t there. The question is how Trump will deal with the region’s multitude of crises and still-tender wounds.
To avoid a repeat of the 2017 diplomatic crisis, Trump “should reemphasize efforts to unite the Gulf,” said Dent and Henderson, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Goldenberg reported from Tel Aviv, Israel.
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Trump’s Visit to Gulf Arab States Amid Rising Tensions in Gaza and Iran
Former President Donald Trump’s impending visit to Gulf Arab states arrives during a time of acute geopolitical tension, particularly in Gaza and Iran. This visit is poised to reshape diplomatic dynamics in the region, especially considering the historical and complex relationships between the Gulf nations and Iran, as well as their responses to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
The Context of the Visit
As Trump gears up for his return to the Middle East, the region grapples with multifaceted crises. The situation in Gaza has escalated, with reports of increasing violence and humanitarian distress. The ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel has resulted in devastating casualties and a dire humanitarian situation, exacerbated by aerial bombings and blockades that limit basic necessities such as food, water, and medical supplies.
Simultaneously, Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain a significant point of contention. The Biden administration’s efforts to re-enter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have faced substantial obstacles, with Iran continuing to expand its nuclear capabilities. This development not only raises alarms among Western powers but also incites apprehensions among Gulf Arab states, which perceive a nuclear-equipped Iran as a direct threat to their security and sovereignty.
The Significance of Gulf Arab States
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — comprising Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain — plays a vital role in regional politics. These nations are significant players in the global energy market, and their alliances can influence international economic structures. Trump’s visit is an opportunity for him to engage with these key partners, possibly signaling a shift in U.S. foreign policy towards a more proactive approach in the region.
Moreover, the Gulf states have been increasingly vocal in their criticisms of Iranian actions, including its support for proxy groups across the Middle East, which contribute to instability. Trump’s past presidency saw an alignment of U.S. foreign policy with the interests of the GCC, particularly in combating Iranian influence. As tensions mount, Trump’s upcoming visit might foster discussions on collaborative security measures, economic partnerships, and coordinated responses to the crises in Gaza and Iran.
Diplomatic Dynamics with Iran
The relationship between the Gulf Arab states and Iran is fraught with rivalry. Iran’s support for groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and its backing of various militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen creates an environment of distrust. The Gulf nations fear that an emboldened Iran could challenge their governance and influence across the region.
Trump’s strategy during his presidency was characterized by a hardline stance against Iran, epitomized by his decision to withdraw from the JCPOA and impose stringent sanctions. Critics argue that this approach heightened tensions and incentivized Iran to accelerate its nuclear development. As Trump returns to the region during heightened tensions, how he addresses Iran will be crucial. The Gulf states are likely looking for reassurance and commitment from him regarding their security concerns.
The Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza
The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is equally significant. The ongoing conflict has led to widespread destruction and displaced countless civilians. The socio-economic fabric of Gaza, already fragile before the recent escalations, faces further disintegration. As Trump visits, how he addresses the situation in Gaza will likely be scrutinized.
While the former administration was known for its strong support of Israel, the current unrest raises ethical questions about the U.S.’s role in fostering peace in the region. Trump could potentially leverage his influence to advocate for humanitarian assistance to Gaza while balancing support for Israel’s right to defend itself. This dual approach may be contentious, but it reflects the complex realities of Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Potential Outcomes of the Visit
Trump’s engagement with Gulf Arab states could lead to various outcomes. Firstly, it may reinforce existing alliances and promote coordinated efforts to address the challenges posed by Iran. Such alliances could potentially include military cooperation, shared intelligence to combat terrorism, and economic partnerships designed to deepen interdependence among Gulf nations.
Secondly, his discussions may focus on immediate humanitarian issues, emphasizing the need for a ceasefire in Gaza and international coordination to deliver aid. The inclusion of humanitarian considerations in diplomatic negotiations is critical for rebuilding credibility and trust among the affected populations and nations.
Lastly, this visit could set the tone for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East as the 2024 presidential election draws nearer. The responses from both Gulf nations and the various factions within Palestine and Iran will shape public perception of Trump’s foreign policy regarding conflict resolution in the region.
Conclusion
As former President Trump prepares for his visit to Gulf Arab states, the backdrop of rising tensions in Gaza and Iran complicates the diplomatic landscape considerably. By addressing both the security concerns posed by Iran and the urgent humanitarian crises in Gaza, Trump has an opportunity to reshape perceptions of U.S. involvement in the Middle East. The success of his visit will depend not only on the commitments made but also on the willingness of all parties involved to engage in constructive dialogue aimed at peace and stability in a region long fraught with conflict.
President Donald Trump is embarking on a diplomatic tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, aiming to secure substantial investment deals in sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and rare earth minerals. This visit comes amid escalating crises in Gaza and Iran, raising questions about the alignment of economic interests with regional stability.
In Gaza, Israel has intensified military operations following the termination of a ceasefire, leading to a severe humanitarian crisis. The conflict, which reignited in March after a two-month ceasefire, has resulted in over 52,000 Palestinian deaths and massive displacement since October 2023. The war began after Hamas militants attacked Israel, killing around 1,200 people and taking hostages. (reuters.com)
Concurrently, Iran is advancing its nuclear program, edging closer to developing nuclear weapons. This development has prompted U.S.-Iran negotiations, though significant breakthroughs remain elusive. The situation is further complicated by Iran’s economic struggles and domestic unrest, as well as its support for regional militant groups. (apnews.com)
Trump’s exclusion of Israel from his Middle East itinerary has raised concerns about diminished U.S. support, especially following his unexpected halt of U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Despite these tensions, Trump maintains strong ties with Gulf nations, bolstered by his real estate ventures in the region. His focus on economic partnerships contrasts with the pressing security issues facing the Middle East. (apnews.com)
Analysts urge Trump to avoid the divisive rhetoric of his prior 2017 visit, which contributed to a Gulf diplomatic rift. Balancing business diplomacy with complex geopolitical tensions remains a significant challenge for the administration. (apnews.com)
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