## The Impact of Tourism Spending and Interest Payments on Trade Balance
### Overview of the Current Economic Landscape
Since December 2023, tourism spending and interest payments have significantly impacted the trade balance, accounting for a staggering 90% of the balance of goods. This alarming trend has arisen amid an appreciating currency and elevated levels of national debt, complicating the ability to leverage income from foreign trade effectively.
### Trade Balance Dynamics
Between December 2023 and November 2025, the trade balance for goods reached a surplus of USD 40,890 million. However, this figure paints a misleading picture when the deficits from tourism (USD 15,314 million) and interest payments (USD 21,636 million) are considered. This reevaluation narrows the surplus to a meager USD 3,940 million, even underperforming relative to the net income generated by the oilseed and cereal sectors in September, which was USD 7,568 million.
According to the CEPA, the situation illustrates how the commitments linked to debt and the exchange rate are eroding the productive capacity of the export sector, effectively overshadowing the benefits that should arise from exports.
### Tourism Trends and Spending Patterns
The outbound tourism surge is particularly noteworthy. In November alone, 764,000 individuals traveled abroad—an increase of 101,000 compared to the prior year—while only 491,000 visitors entered the country, reflecting a net loss in tourism balance.
So far in 2023, the total number of outbound travelers reached an impressive 11,191,000, nearly equaling the historical maximum of 11,320,000 achieved in 2017. Expenditure related to this outbound tourism has also escalated, with reported spending for October and November hitting USD 1,148 million—an increase of 26% from the previous year.
### Current Account Deficits and Financial Context
The comprehensive financial landscape reveals an increase in the current account deficit—USD 1.6 billion recorded in the third quarter. Despite a surplus in the trade balance of USD 4.3 billion, this figure marks an 18% decrease year-on-year compared to the same period in 2024. Notably, exports grew by 13.8% while imports surged by 24.6%, exacerbating the situation.
The services account has also taken a hit, registering a deficit of USD 2.6 billion, largely driven by tourism, which recorded a USD 1.4 billion deficit. The overall financial scenario is underpinned by substantial capital inflows from sources like the IMF and foreign direct investment, totaling USD 3.5 billion.
### Future Debt Obligations and Government Measures
Looking ahead, the upcoming year will see debt payments—principally between principal and interest—amounting to USD 18 billion. Projections suggest this sum might be lowered to USD 13.8 billion with proposed rollovers in payments to international organizations.
In response to these challenges, the Government has enacted measures through the 2026 Budget Law to refinance 60% of interest payments on non-transferable dollar bills held by the Central Bank. This strategy entails substituting bond maturities on their due dates with new public securities, which will be subject to interest rates based on the performance of international reserves.
### Conclusion
As the dynamics of the trade balance and tourism spending continue to evolve, addressing the dual challenges of debt repayments and promoting domestic economic growth remains crucial. The implications of these financial trends will not only shape immediate economic conditions but also lay the foundation for future fiscal stability and growth.