Since the start of the Kursk operation, military analysts have discussed what opportunities it offers the Ukrainians. Common to the analysts is a belief that the attack will eventually stagnate. The Russians will at some point set up a good enough defense to stop the advance. There are already signs that this work is underway. Russian fortifications are appearing in Kursk. In this case you can read about: DIGGING TRENCHES: In satellite images from the last few days, it is possible to see signs that the Russians have started building fortifications in Kursk. Photo: Planet Technologically, the war in Ukraine has developed in such a way that it gives great advantages to the defender. Attacks are extremely difficult and costly. The Ukrainians managed to surprise the Russians with the attack on 6 August, and have therefore managed to advance several kilometers into Russia. The border line was only thinly fortified. The experience from the war inside Ukraine suggests that such a rapid advance is not possible after the fronts have established themselves. FOOLED THE RUSSIANS: The head of the Ukrainian forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, managed to keep the planning for the operation a secret. Only a few in the armed forces knew anything about it until just days before it was launched. Photo: AFP The Ukrainians advance until they cannot take any more ground. They dig in and enter a phase where they defend everything they have taken. This gives maximum control over Russian territory. This can be useful if the goal is to exchange this area for something else during any negotiations. The area Ukraine controls inside Russia on August 12. The map is taken from Wikipedia with information from the Institute for the study of war. Photo: Wikipedia/ISW The maps, which now give more or less good estimates of how far the Ukrainians have reached, indicate that they have settled into a number of wedges. That is, relatively thin areas where they will be surrounded by Russian forces. These areas will be difficult to defend. Starting a defensive war here would entail a great risk of losing units that the Ukrainians desperately need to be able to continue the defense of their homeland. THE HEIGHT PROVIDES AN ADVANTAGE: A topographical map of the area in Kursk where the Ukrainians now have partial control. The brown is about fifty meters higher in terrain than the green. Photo: OpenTopoMap The Ukrainians retreat to areas that are easier to defend. This also makes it easier for the Ukrainians to supply their forces because the road from Ukraine is shorter. The area the Ukrainians now seem to control in Kursk is slightly hilly. There are still highlights that can be the basis for a strong defence. Defending a smaller area requires fewer resources from the Ukrainians. There is nevertheless extensive construction work that must be carried out to create a defense capable of withstanding the Russian counterattacks that analysts expect will come. The advantage of holding on to Russian soil is that it forces the Russians to use large resources in trying to take it back. Villages, infrastructure and nature destroyed in this defensive battle are destroyed inside Russia. Then the Russians can touch and feel what it is like. With a smaller area to defend, the Ukrainians can free up forces that can be used for other operations inside Ukraine. They can also be used for new attacks into Russia where the defense is weak. DEFEAT: Russian refugees from the conflict areas. The attack has already shown that the Russian defense is unable to keep the Ukrainians away from the country. Photo: AP The Ukrainians withdraw completely from Russia. This gives the least risk of losing forces the Ukrainians need elsewhere. It will also send a signal to the Russians that the Ukrainians are capable of invading the country, but that they do not want to occupy neighboring countries. The advantage for the Ukrainians of such a solution is to preserve the victory. It is the Ukrainians themselves who decide to withdraw after a successful attack. They also avoid the risk that the operation will eventually end with the loss of everything taken, and with heavy losses of soldiers and materiel. Sources used in this case are: Michael Kofman, Mick Ryan, Emil Kastelhelmi and Phillips P. OBrien. Published 14.08.2024, at 22.24
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Three Ukrainian opportunities in Kursk – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
