Putin envisioned the war in Ukraine to be a short and simple campaign. More than eight months after the invasion, it is Ukraine that has the upper hand. Now the Ukrainian forces have taken control of the important city of Kherson in the south. At the same time, they have gained control over important cities in the north-east. It has surprised the Russians and impressed Western experts. One important reason is that the Ukrainians have renewed their defense in a way that has no parallel in recent military history, believes the Norwegian military expert Palle Ydstebø. In less than ten years, the Ukrainian defense has gone from being characterized by an old Soviet system, where the only thing that matters is obeying orders. In such a system there is neither room for initiative nor creativity. – The Ukrainians have turned 180 degrees, says Ydstebø, who is head teacher at the War College. In the new defence, authority is delegated downwards, he explains. People on the ground have great freedom to find practical solutions to problems that arise. Palle Ydstebø at Krigsskolen believes that the Ukrainians’ success on the battlefield is due to the reorganization of the defence. – It is the Ukrainian military reforms that have laid the foundation for what we see unfolding so far in this war, he says. Photo: Mathias Moene Rød / NRKPalle Ydstebø at the War College believes that the Ukrainians’ success on the battlefield is due to the reorganization of the defence. – It is the Ukrainian military reforms that have laid the foundation for what we see unfolding so far in this war, he says. Photo: Mathias Moene Rød / news Lieutenant-Colonel Ydstebø has no doubt that this has had a decisive impact on how the war has developed. In this case, we take a closer look at what appear to be the three most important turning points in the war so far: 1. The battle for Kyiv 2. Russia shows its cards 3. Ukraine strikes back On Tuesday 24 February, the Ukrainians woke up to war. – This is the first and most important turning point of the war, says Palle Ydstebø. The problems for the Russian forces already appeared on the first day of the war. When Russian helicopters attacked the Hostomel airport, a small mile outside the capital, several were shot down. The Ukrainians also showed that they could counterattack and defeat Russian elite forces, explains Ydstebø. The airport was intended as an important base where the Russians would fly in troops and military equipment, but unexpected Ukrainian resistance meant that it took far too long to gain control. At the same time as the Hostomel airport was attacked, almost 30,000 Russian soldiers crossed the border into Ukraine in the north. The plan to move towards Kyiv along the east side of the river Dnipro was greatly delayed. At the city of Chernihiv, the Ukrainians stood ready. Although the Ukrainian forces initially only numbered around 2,000, they managed to attack several Russian columns. The Ukrainians thus got the time they needed to set up a larger defense and gather their own troops. At some point, probably sometime in mid-March, the Russians gave up on taking Kyiv. At the turn of March-April, they withdrew. – The first turning point in the war is when the Russian offensive stops. This is because the Ukrainian resistance is becoming too strong. The Russian forces were unable to pursue their attack. The first crisis for Ukraine was averted, while another crisis was developing for the Russians, says Ydstebø. Russian forces failed to take Kyiv. According to the CIA, the Russians thought it would take a maximum of two days. 100 days after the invasion, people in Kyiv could see destroyed Russian military equipment on display in the center of the city. The village of Demydiv outside Kyiv was flooded when Ukrainian forces opened a dam nearby. The aim was to stop Russian soldiers on their way to the capital. Good local knowledge and sabotage actions helped to maintain the defense of Kyiv. A six-mile-long Russian military column with supplies also did not reach the forces that were supposed to take the capital. Satellite images of the endless convoy caused fear, but just over a week into the war, it stopped north of Kyiv. At Hostomel airport outside Kyiv, the Ukrainians fought elite Russian forces. The world’s largest plane, the Antonov 225, was destroyed. Valentina Shjerba (68) visits her father’s destroyed house outside the city of Chernihiv, in northern Ukraine. Here, Ukrainian forces managed to hold back the Russians who were on their way to Kyiv. Friday 25 March marks the war’s second turning point, according to Palle Ydstebø. It now became clear what they wanted to do in the war. The Russians showed their cards with this, Ydstebø believes. – Russia had now given up on taking political control over Ukraine. The goal had instead been limited to liberating the two so-called self-governing republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. A goal that was manageable in relation to what the Russian forces had the capacity for, says the lieutenant colonel. From the middle of April until the beginning of July, the Russian forces deployed their combat power here. On July 3, Russia claimed control of the entire Luhansk region after capturing the twin cities of Sievjerodonetsk and Lysytjansk. – Then they had thundered on with everything they have for three months and barely got 10-15 kilometres, says Ydstebø. On July 8, the Russian Defense Forces announced that their forces had to rest. The war has forced father and son into the basement in the town of Lysytsjansk. In May, the city was without water and electricity. At the end of May, the Ukrainians reported that the fighting in the east of the country was at its worst. Maksym Katerin stands in his courtyard in Lysytjansk. His mother and stepfather were killed while his town was bombed in June. This was the last area in Luhansk county that Ukrainian forces tried to defend before it came under Russian control. Relatives and friends say goodbye to Taras Mykytsei. The Ukrainian soldier was killed in fighting with the Russian forces near Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast in July. Sergej Rudskoi of the Russian army claimed on 25 March that they had destroyed “most of Ukraine’s air force and navy”, and that it was now time to focus on Luhansk and Donetsk. In May, the Ukrainians really hit back. The aim was to push back the Russian forces in the Kharkiv and Kherson counties. – This is the third turning point in the war, says Palle Ydstebø. Ydstebø calls this the battle for the strategic initiative. – It’s like two wrestlers standing and pushing and trying to get an advantage over the other. This is the hardest turning point to see because it spans such a long time. The offensive is still ongoing, but early in September it became clear that the Ukrainians had taken the lead in the war. – In both the south and the north there are events that stand out and show that the Ukrainians have the upper hand, says Ydstebø. In Kherson county, this became clear when the Ukrainians cut several bridges over the Dnipro and Inhulets rivers. This led to the Russian forces north and west of the Dnipro having problems getting supplies. – This is definitely the turning point that the Russians are unable to handle properly. The Ukrainians have an advantage which they are exploiting further for several smaller attacks along the front in the south. They are pushing the Russians more and more together. They attack ammunition depots with precision weapons. This is the turning point in the south. The Ukrainian offensive has tailwinds throughout the autumn. This week, the Russian defense leadership decided that their forces on the west side of the Dnipro should be withdrawn. Now the city of Kherson has been liberated and the Russian forces are said to have completed their withdrawal. Kherson city is the only county capital that the Russians managed to capture after the invasion. Pushing the Russians out of here therefore appears to be a highlight of the offensive so far. Ukrainian forces have tried to destroy the Antonovsky bridge near Kherson. The Russians have used the bridge to transport supplies to their troops. The Russians claim they are evacuating people away from the war zone in Kherson, while the Ukrainians call it deportation. These people were sent to the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula at the beginning of November. In Moscow, people celebrated that in September the Russian authorities forcibly incorporated the four Ukrainian counties of Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhya into Russia. In the northeast, in Kharkiv county, it became clear that the Ukrainians were on the offensive when the Russian forces surrendered the city of Izium. The city was strategically very important because the Russians had supplied their forces in the east from here. – Izium was important because there was a large concentration of Russian troops here. It has always been a threat to the Ukrainian defense of Donbas. When the Russians surrendered Izium, that was definitely a turning point. It showed that the Russians were on the defensive in the north, so it held, says Ydstebø. In mid-September, parachute hunter Andrii Bashtovyj could finally rejoice. By then Ukrainian forces had driven the Russians out of the town of Izium. Buried corpses are being carried into a refrigerated truck in the town of Izium in the Kharkiv region. In September, Ukrainian authorities found 447 bodies in a mass grave. Most had signs of having suffered a violent death. Shortly before, Ukraine had recaptured the city. The war destroyed the home of Viktor (72) in Izium. To keep warm and cook, he has collected firewood. Why is Ukraine succeeding? The three turning points show that the Ukrainians have managed to repel the Russian attack. This is due to several things, according to Ydstebø. – First of all, it is the whole of Ukraine that is fighting. This is an existential war for Ukraine. Both for the people and the state. The whole community is involved in this. The Ukrainians are well motivated to fight, they have good military units and they have enough people who stand up. After Russia took the Crimean peninsula by force in 2014, Ukraine has spent the years well preparing for a major Russian invasion, says Ydstebø. This does not only apply to the defence. He believes that the whole society has prepared for this to happen. The Ukrainian defense is also something completely different from what it was in 2014. They have left a top-managed Soviet system and carried out what is quite a startling military reform in recent military history, according to Ydstebø. The steps taken are reminiscent of Western democracies’ approach to military power. – This applies to both management, how you organize yourself and the way you develop your army. The Ukrainians are probably not quite on target, but they have had a qualitative improvement which is quite impressive considering the starting point. The United States is the largest contributor of arms aid to Ukraine. The aid started even before the war. The photo is from an air base near Kyiv a few days before the invasion on 24 February. Photo: SERGEI SUPINSKY / AFP This has led to the fact that today there are two completely different armies that meet on the battlefield in Ukraine. While the Ukrainians have renewed themselves, the Russian defense is still built on the old Soviet system. The only thing that applies here is to obey orders, explains Ydstebø. Weapons aid from other countries has also played an important role, but this has not been decisive, believes the lieutenant colonel. – Weapons from abroad have meant a lot, but they could not have been used in an effective way if it had not been for the reforms that the Ukrainian defense has carried out. There are two dimensions here, he says. What will be the next turning point in the war? Palle Ydstebø believes it is not certain that there will be a fourth turning point in the war. – What will change something is if Russia manages to build up a new army that is powerful enough to take back the strategic initiative from the Ukrainians. It will take at least half a year to complete, or perhaps several years. This will challenge the entire Russian system and require reforms, which I doubt those in power are willing to accept. Ydstebø believes we have to go back to the Second World War to see something similar to today’s situation. When Nazi Germany attacked the Soviet Union in June 1941, the Red Army collapsed after a few months. Work on building up a new army continued until the turn of the year 1942–43. Only towards the end of 1943 had the Soviet Union gained the upper hand, explains the lieutenant colonel. – If there is to be a new turning point, it must be that Russia manages to get back in. If they fail to do so, it is Ukraine that will continue this war. On his own terms.
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Three turning points in the war between Ukraine and Russia – Urix
